Never Lose Again

free & uncensored discussion arena for TheRumpledOne

Moderator: moderators

theperfectsun
rank: <50 posts
rank: <50 posts
Posts: 22
Joined: Fri Oct 03, 2008 5:28 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender: Male
Contact:

Postby theperfectsun » Sat Nov 01, 2008 11:13 am

Are you looking at 5minTF or 1HTF?
thank you

Good luck to you all!

www.elegance.si
www.befxtrader.com

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

User avatar
razorboy
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 627
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2008 2:06 am
Reputation: 0
Location: Toronto
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby razorboy » Sat Nov 01, 2008 11:29 am

theperfectsun wrote:Are you looking at 5minTF or 1HTF?


who? Me? I trade on 5 min but always look at H1


The other thing I think I have learned this week is that as we go through a period of historic volatility - at least I think it is historic volatility in forex rates (someone with more data is free to prove or disprove this claim), you are more likely to see the large swings in price that we have be seeing that may people are riding for 50 to 500 pips in one swoop. I suspect you will see less of this sort of behavior, if and when volatility falls a bit. The other thing I have experienced, riding these waves once in a while, is I don't like the drawdown that is involved, and if you are playing the longer time frames - beyond say 1m, at some point you are taking a huge drawdown and it may only be a combination of luck and the historic price swings we are seeing on a regular basis that are keep you in the game. The sensation of watching price go against me, even if it is "all profit", isn't enjoyable (maybe if i did it overnight, with stop losses and limits, I would find it easier to tolerate)
I would also be interested to know how many of you are playing with real cash vs practice accounts. I know dragon is, I am. If you can stare down a large draw down period in anticipation of a larger gain, you my friends, have bigger balls than I

Josh "Two Candles Max" Kerbel

theperfectsun
rank: <50 posts
rank: <50 posts
Posts: 22
Joined: Fri Oct 03, 2008 5:28 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender: Male
Contact:

Postby theperfectsun » Sat Nov 01, 2008 11:48 am

I am using live as well, just looking for a new broker and will be adding funds. I am not happy with Oanda widening spreads. I have my own system that works for me, but part of my system is loosing as well. One of the rules is SL rule, and with this spreads and movements it gets to high. I used to have 20-25 pip SL, but now even 50 is not enough sometimes. So I am looking to unlearn a few things and trying to SEE something new. I find this TRO's ideas most interesting from them all. I am really reading and learning it over and over again, asking a lot of questions to my self and some other traders here. I would like to be quick in the ride, like Dragon and some other great guys are.

Wish you all best of luck, I really think we should meet one day somewhere and make some live conversations and trading together. I think this would be most helpful for all of us.

Cheers
thank you



Good luck to you all!



www.elegance.si

www.befxtrader.com

User avatar
razorboy
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 627
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2008 2:06 am
Reputation: 0
Location: Toronto
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby razorboy » Sat Nov 01, 2008 12:27 pm

If you are setting stop losses in that range, then I suspect you are taking on way too much risk to make a profit, unless you are looking to make 80 to 200 pips on every trade.

Far from being an expert, I suspect most of go thru the same thing when a trade goes against us.......hold on a bit too long, just hoping for it to get close to even before you cash out (and promising yourself never ever to get into a stupid trade like that again) and then if it does get close to even, you hold on to maybe make some pips, because of course, you took the risk, you want to earn something for it, so maybe it creeps just above 0 and you earn a pip or two if you click out fast enough...watch out for slipage So you just took a 20 to 50 pip risk to earn a pip or two, if you are that lucky. Yes, you can manage the trade, buying and selling along the bounces, hoping to work your way out. I have done this, sometimes it work, sometimes it doesnt, but often I get so focused on buying and selling additional lots, I don't even notice when the trend has fully gone against me. From what I can tell you, if was setting stop losses in the 20 to 50 range right off of my initial entry, I was pretty much waiting for the trend to go against me before I get out.

If your approach to the market is scalping, keep your stop losses tight. Remember you aren't looking to get married here, just date for a bit

Just more thoughts

theperfectsun wrote:I am using live as well, just looking for a new broker and will be adding funds. I am not happy with Oanda widening spreads. I have my own system that works for me, but part of my system is loosing as well. One of the rules is SL rule, and with this spreads and movements it gets to high. I used to have 20-25 pip SL, but now even 50 is not enough sometimes. So I am looking to unlearn a few things and trying to SEE something new. I find this TRO's ideas most interesting from them all. I am really reading and learning it over and over again, asking a lot of questions to my self and some other traders here. I would like to be quick in the ride, like Dragon and some other great guys are.

Wish you all best of luck, I really think we should meet one day somewhere and make some live conversations and trading together. I think this would be most helpful for all of us.

Cheers
Last edited by razorboy on Sat Nov 01, 2008 12:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.

theperfectsun
rank: <50 posts
rank: <50 posts
Posts: 22
Joined: Fri Oct 03, 2008 5:28 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender: Male
Contact:

Postby theperfectsun » Sat Nov 01, 2008 12:36 pm

Yes you are right. The system I use is a mix and looks for trend reversals. That is why the SL s are wide, I don't like to have such a big SL, that is why I am trying to change the way I trade. And yes, getting in the trade with 50 pips SL and making only 5 or 10 pips, waste of NERVES first and money later. Even with a great RR it sounds like a disaster. That is why I am trying to see and learning to get in when it moves with me, not waiting to turn and go my way, loosing the money on the way against me and being constantly thrown out. For what, 5-20 pips gain, risking 50?
thank you



Good luck to you all!



www.elegance.si

www.befxtrader.com

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

Al Mo
rank: <50 posts
rank: <50 posts
Posts: 24
Joined: Thu Oct 09, 2008 7:02 am
Reputation: 0
Location: Rochester, NY
Gender: Male

My Lesson Learned

Postby Al Mo » Sat Nov 01, 2008 2:09 pm

Greetings TRO,


I would say the biggest differences to date for me are:

1) Keeping my expectations reasonable - 5 - 13 pips max.

2) proper use of money management (this is something I have yet to truly master....work in progress). Right now all my demo trades are 0.1 lots, and I deliberately open the demo accounts with 500 bux to prevent myself from being able to 'overtrade' my way back into profitability. This alone, forced me to learn how to pick better entries.

3). And lastly, what I am including in this pic.
Attachments
lessonlearned.gif
lessonlearned.gif (52.79 KiB) Viewed 1888 times

BlowFish
rank: 50+ posts
rank: 50+ posts
Posts: 68
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:09 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

Postby BlowFish » Sat Nov 01, 2008 3:27 pm

Al Mo wrote:I have to correct myself....its TRO Dynamic FIBS SR that I was using. Just took another look at the indicator name :)

As for paltalk express....weird thing for me, I can join the room, but cannot see what is being typed. If I cut the content of the chat and paste to a editor (ala kate or kedit), then I can see what is being said.


Unfortunately, that is too much work considering I am trying to trade while that is going on :(


Is it a font issue? White text on white background type thing. Just a thought.

Great trading too btw al. I know you dont have indicators on your charts but which method are you basing your entry on? S/R or 3 bar reversal or maybe somethng else.

BlowFish
rank: 50+ posts
rank: 50+ posts
Posts: 68
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2006 8:09 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

Postby BlowFish » Sat Nov 01, 2008 3:51 pm

razorboy wrote:you know may be helpful and may provide more information than the standard M1, M5, M15, M30, etc multi candle indicator that TRO made up, is an indicator that shows the trend for the trailing 5, 15, 30, 60 minutes, etc,

What i have noticed is that when a new period starts, say the new 5, 30 or 60 minute, the colour of the candle often flickers back and forth, generating false buy and sell signals, even though the trend from the last time period is still probably intact, an indicator that looked at lagging periods would remove this artificiality of a temporary change in trend just because of the start of a new time period. I see this a lot at the 15 minute marks

does that make sense to anyone.


Yes it does. I have thought the same thing the color becomes more statistically significant as time progresses. Or more importantly statistically insignificant at the start. For the hour you could use a 'rolling period' (so always 60 minutes regardless of what the time is). Mind you there are various other things you can use like the previous hours mid point (or pivot). Or even a MA (but I don't like squigglies myself)

User avatar
razorboy
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 627
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2008 2:06 am
Reputation: 0
Location: Toronto
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby razorboy » Sat Nov 01, 2008 4:00 pm

Duh........you are right, all you need are trailing MA's.......i've gotten so used to not looking at them

BlowFish wrote:
razorboy wrote:you know may be helpful and may provide more information than the standard M1, M5, M15, M30, etc multi candle indicator that TRO made up, is an indicator that shows the trend for the trailing 5, 15, 30, 60 minutes, etc,

What i have noticed is that when a new period starts, say the new 5, 30 or 60 minute, the colour of the candle often flickers back and forth, generating false buy and sell signals, even though the trend from the last time period is still probably intact, an indicator that looked at lagging periods would remove this artificiality of a temporary change in trend just because of the start of a new time period. I see this a lot at the 15 minute marks

does that make sense to anyone.


Yes it does. I have thought the same thing the color becomes more statistically significant as time progresses. Or more importantly statistically insignificant at the start. For the hour you could use a 'rolling period' (so always 60 minutes regardless of what the time is). Mind you there are various other things you can use like the previous hours mid point (or pivot). Or even a MA (but I don't like squigglies myself)

User avatar
TheRumpledOne
rank: 10000+ posts
rank: 10000+ posts
Posts: 11440
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 pm
Reputation: 45
Location: Oregon
Real name: Avery T. Horton, Jr.
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby TheRumpledOne » Sat Nov 01, 2008 4:57 pm

razorboy wrote:Much thanks.........was never good in school. I also suspect that if you want to "catch" more of these big moves, set the look back period for the dynamic fib lines shorter - say 5 to 8 periods and you will be able to play the big moves with more safety.

Pretending that H1 is green and you are going long

For example, lets assume that you go with the H1 color and beyond 3 same colored candles, you will pull one that goes against you, and probably two. These one or two will take you down to a possible support fib level and you can buy back in on the next green, without having to ride those two reds down, possibly wiping out a chunk of , if not all your profit

any thoughts? Am I off base or on target. I have found that using 21 period look backs, I do a lot of sitting around, I tighten them up and i get more trades and less moves against me if I attempt to ride a long trend


Image

Using a 3 period "look back", you will see the breakouts BECAUSE, we know from STATISTICS that 2 and 3 bars of the same color in a row is a likely occurrence where 4 or more in a row are less likely.

If bar 2 is pushing against support/resistance, then it is likely to continue moving in that direction.

UNDERSTAND?
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.


Return to “TheRumpledOne”