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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Sat Jun 20, 2009 11:01 pm

Teoman:

What are those SQUIGGLYS doing in this thread!??!!
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

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rowdy
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Postby rowdy » Sun Jun 21, 2009 3:36 am

I must be losing it(I know, you think I have already lost it).

I was looking at Teomans idea of using the 7 Semafors. I looked and looked and it started to get me interested. I opened a chart for EU on 5 minutes and counted the number of times a 7 Semafor came up. I noticed that it happened on average only about twice a month. I was interested in using this for a high percentage reversal trade combined with SV or whatever. The first thing I wanted to know was how far in pips did the price go against me after the 7 semafor first shows up. So I whipped up something quick just to observe this using the MT4 playback feature. I observed that it would move against you less than 100 pips in most cases. In a couple of occasions it moved hundreds of pips. I just about gave up because I cant know when I would get caught in a vicious breakout. Then it dawned on me. What if I set a 110 pip stop and entered immediately when a 7 semafor appears? Then take profit when a 7 semafor forms against me. I then manually backtested this idea and here are the crude results-

1/23 Long 1.27785 54 pips
1/27 Short 1.3311 86 pips +367 pips
2/2 Long 1.2710 92 pips +509 pips
2/9 Short 1.30705 32 pips +328 pips
2/18 Long 1.25195 62 pips +613 pips
2/23 Short 1.2974 76 pips +378 pips
3/3 Long 1.24635 102 pips +408 pips
3/19 Short 1.37275 630 pips -110 pips
3/30 Long 1.3118 310 pips -110 pips
4/5 Short 1.35725 13 pips +441 pips
4/22 Long 1.28960 15 pips +691 pips
6/3 Short 1.4316 70 pips +1350 pips
6/15 Long 1.3768 49 pips +597 pips
to date +174 pips
Total +5636 pips

The first column is the date, Second is Trade you would take, Third is the price when the 7 Semafor anchored, fourth is the number of pips the price moved against you before it anchored, fifth is the total pips acquired from the trade. I must be crazy. Or am I?

I have started a full backtest of this EA but it is going to take about 110 hours.

If these numbers are even close then this is the most incredible thing I have discovered yet.

Would someone do a quick check of this? Not a super detailed analysis but just see if these numbers could be remotely realistic. In the meantime, I will let the computer keep crunching.
All I need is Supply and Demand

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monolisa
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Postby monolisa » Sun Jun 21, 2009 6:13 am

Kudo to teoman for the high tf semafor concept. Thanks.

The 7 semafor represents weekly high/low. Logically price would reverse at these points given the significance of such levels. However if momentum exists (eg. news events) then a breakout might be possible. TRO might be able to shed some light on the degree of breakout using some of his wonderful statistical tools :)

Again if you are trading weekly high/low on weekly chart then such profit level should be expected. But I would prefer the compounding effect of profits on smaller tf.



My $0.02

Lis

teoman
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Postby teoman » Sun Jun 21, 2009 7:32 am

I changed the show trendlines true, show retracelines true to zz sema 233 (sema 5) as it is our daily high/lows
instead of sema3 (34).

And also added same fibo numbers to cci with same colors with sema to make a double check the reverses with CCI ...
( may be a better idea instead of using huge 110 pips stop..)


13-White
34-Chartreuse
89-Aqua
233-Blue
610-Magenta
1597-Peru


Image
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rowdy
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Postby rowdy » Sun Jun 21, 2009 11:27 am

Here are my backtest results so far. My account doubled in size in just three weeks. I am going to allow this to continue, but in my next revision I am going to investigate the possibility of waiting for the 7 Sema to appear and store the price. Let the price move through against me. Then when the price retraces back to the price it first appeared, enter with say a 10 pip stop. If it heads south on me and I get stopped out, then just wait for it to come back and then enter again. I can then play with the stoploss value to see how not to get whipsawed. This might help those who are squeemish over the 110 pip stoploss.

Thanks Teoman!
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***FX-JEDI***
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Postby ***FX-JEDI*** » Sun Jun 21, 2009 12:40 pm

rowdy wrote:Here are my backtest results so far. My account doubled in size in just three weeks. I am going to allow this to continue, but in my next revision I am going to investigate the possibility of waiting for the 7 Sema to appear and store the price. Let the price move through against me. Then when the price retraces back to the price it first appeared, enter with say a 10 pip stop. If it heads south on me and I get stopped out, then just wait for it to come back and then enter again. I can then play with the stoploss value to see how not to get whipsawed. This might help those who are squeemish over the 110 pip stoploss.

Thanks Teoman!


Sounds good Rowdy
Man I need to learn how to write code...
so many ideas to try out.

here is some results of an EA I got a work colleague to do for me, from the 21-10-08 to 6-11-08 14 days of trading captured 9322 pips lost 8168 net profit 1154 on GBP/USD

It only traded off whole numbers on a 5 min chart, no indicators whatsoever.

But he didn't code it as exactly as i wanted it. it could do with some tweaking....lol it was then when I stumble across this site looking for ideas to to minimize the losses.
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Postby monolisa » Sun Jun 21, 2009 12:45 pm

FX-JEDI,

It's actually quite easy. May be rowdy could give you a hand :)

Lis
"Know your enemy and know yourself, find naught in fear for 100 battles. Know yourself but not your enemy, find level of loss and victory. Know neither your enemy or yourself, wallow in defeat every time." - Sun Tzu

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Postby monolisa » Sun Jun 21, 2009 1:15 pm

I note that the "7 semafor" setup could also be traded using the zline concept. Attached is a M5 chart of NZDUSD at the same moment as teoman's chart.

Yellow line was last week's high. As you can see price hesitated at this level. Eventually it broke out with strong momentum and a new high was created (W1(0) High). Next bar was a bearish one with stronger momentum than the breakout candle. This suggested that a reversal is imminent. The next candle went up initially and came back down later (notice the top wick) and the zline was "wicked" - it's a good place to short (0.6467 limit order). Even though the next candle was a bull one it lacked momentum.

PA will tell us whether price will come down to W1(0) Low, which is around 0.6235.

Two indicators are used (tro_mo_number and TRO_PLOT). Thanks MO and TRO :)

Lis
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Postby teoman » Sun Jun 21, 2009 5:27 pm

Image



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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Sun Jun 21, 2009 6:40 pm

monolisa wrote:Kudo to teoman for the high tf semafor concept. Thanks.

The 7 semafor represents weekly high/low. Logically price would reverse at these points given the significance of such levels. However if momentum exists (eg. news events) then a breakout might be possible. TRO might be able to shed some light on the degree of breakout using some of his wonderful statistical tools :)

Again if you are trading weekly high/low on weekly chart then such profit level should be expected. But I would prefer the compounding effect of profits on smaller tf.



My $0.02

Lis


I believe teoman based this on DRAIN THE BANKS REV 2 where I introduced the 4, 5 and 6 semafor levels.

Degree of breakout would be the same.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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