ewokuk wrote:as usual it would SEEM simple, until I look a bit closer at what actually happened. its very easy to identify plenty of great trades......looking at charts after the event without looking really closely at what actually happened.
on the 4th red bar on the left, it first went up (see top wick). if you had taken a long just after it started going up you would have failed to reach 5 pips before it dropped and be stopped out at whatever stop was set. on the 7th red bar, again a very short upper wick where it first went up before dropping. 7 bars by your own stats is very very unlikely so you would have been waiting for a green to form, that bar WAS green at the start and using this trategy i would have taken it, and lost. so at what point do you take the trade? because i see plenty of losers there. after the 5 green bar retrace there were 4 reds. the 4th of those reds again started out going up and was green, again thats a signal for a buy, and would have lost before gaining 5 pips.
even if you set a rtule that after 3+ of one colour, you dont take the first one when it changes colour, you take the second, theres still losers there, after the 3 greens in the middle there is a red, you then plan on taking the next if it is red. it starts off by going down and is red so you take it, then it goes up again before 5 pips profit, even that wouldnt flush out these losers.
am i right or am i missing something? theory sounds like it works, but looking closely at what would have happened shows a lot of losers on there.
I made a simple % retrace indicator (TRO_3Trigger) to plot short/long entry points.
If the price retraces X% from the high/low then you would enter the trade.
Of course, X% is an input.
TRO_3Trigger MT4 indicator including source code attached.