Never Lose Again

free & uncensored discussion arena for TheRumpledOne

Moderator: moderators

User avatar
TheRumpledOne
rank: 10000+ posts
rank: 10000+ posts
Posts: 11397
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 pm
Reputation: 45
Location: Oregon
Real name: Avery T. Horton, Jr.
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby TheRumpledOne » Thu Jan 01, 2009 8:19 pm

Image

Is that what you mean razorboy?
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

User avatar
razorboy
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 627
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2008 2:06 am
Reputation: 0
Location: Toronto
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby razorboy » Thu Jan 01, 2009 10:10 pm

pretty much - exactly what you have been saying about trading with the hour/greater time level trend - but the relationship becomes exceedingly clear the longer the look back period is.

I suspect there was an excellent long entry indication that was cut out of the picture.

What I have been trying to determine is there some price indication - say a shorter period set of fibs that indicates when it is time to get out of a trade - say an 8 period look back

From what I have seen there are two types of "good" system - either a system that scores some big wins and a lot of little losses or a something that scalps lots small wins and takes losses very fast. The one thing both of these systems have in common is they both avoid "big losses". What I sense you can do with the fibs and stats is something that sort of combines these two approaches, so you end up with something that aims for more wins than loses, and of those winners there more big winners than small winners.
Not trading against the trend of the higher time frame - even if you get a short or a long sign, accomplishes the part of keeping you out of the big loses - now how do you know when it is time to leave the party - beyond being stopped out.

Or should I just shut up and be happy with consistent 10 and 20 pip gains?

TheRumpledOne wrote:Image

Is that what you mean razorboy?

User avatar
razorboy
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 627
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2008 2:06 am
Reputation: 0
Location: Toronto
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby razorboy » Thu Jan 01, 2009 11:04 pm

if price takes you in, should it not also take you out?

User avatar
razorboy
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 627
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2008 2:06 am
Reputation: 0
Location: Toronto
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby razorboy » Thu Jan 01, 2009 11:44 pm

the other caveat i would throw in there is that if a candle has spent the majority of the time in a bull region, only go short if you start seeing new lows (new blue dots) when the candle color flips
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!

http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

User avatar
TheRumpledOne
rank: 10000+ posts
rank: 10000+ posts
Posts: 11397
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 pm
Reputation: 45
Location: Oregon
Real name: Avery T. Horton, Jr.
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby TheRumpledOne » Fri Jan 02, 2009 12:10 am

"Or should I just shut up and be happy with consistent 10 and 20 pip gains? "

Be happy!

PRICE IS THE SAME ON ALL CHARTS.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

User avatar
TheRumpledOne
rank: 10000+ posts
rank: 10000+ posts
Posts: 11397
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 pm
Reputation: 45
Location: Oregon
Real name: Avery T. Horton, Jr.
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby TheRumpledOne » Fri Jan 02, 2009 3:41 am

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread. ... light=dibs

Originally Posted by PeterCrowns

Trading the "hot hand": Trading the strongest/weakest market is actually really simple. For example, yesterday the Eur/Usd was up more proportionately than the Usd/Chf was down. This was because the Usd/Chf wasn't even a down day. Definitely off its highs but not down relative to last week's close. The Eur/Usd was up, up and away! So that is the market you buy.

And I did! I'm sure I had company from this group.

In the pit the first thing you learn--- when you are ready to actually make money..., and stop the bleeding, is:

* Only be willing to buy a market if it is up on the day.
* Only be willing to sell a market if it is down on the day.


Obviously, it would logically follow that the currencies which are up more are better buys and the ones down more are the better shorts. So basically, if you get a buy setup forming on two strong currencies, take the trade on the one up most on the day.

This actually means that you never go short a currency unless it is "down" relative to yesterday's close; or go long for any reason unless the market is "up" on the day.

Review for yourself how many large losses you could've eliminated from your past trades if you followed these rules. At the same time, I am certain you would have eliminated very few of your biggest winners by doing this.

Think about this for a while. I have for decades. The power of this simple concept still amazes me.

I'm sure this sounds simplistic to everyone, and maybe this stuff is obvious to you all, but I doubt it. How many times do you find yourself buying a weaker currency instead of the stronger one, thinking that the weaker one "has" to catch up, or the stronger one has already moved as much as it is likely to already.

Always buy setups in the strongest daily markets, always take sell orders in the weakest daily markets.

And yes, I have come up with very simple methods to exploit this. Breakouts of inside bars on hourly charts is one very useable technique I use a lot. Pennants of various constructions work very well too. Once you know which markets to trade, and in which directions--- it is a pretty simple job.

After all, trading is just risk control. Unfortunately it can take a while for us to learn to use the simple tools we have available.

Post #58

From your experience, do you think it's prudent to place the SL on the other side of the outside bar (left side) instead of the inside bar, in order to decrease the frequency of getting stopped out? At the beginning of each trading session, when price is moving just under or above (sometimes both) yesterday's close, do you look for breakouts in one direction? both directions? or wait until the price has moved far enough to offer a clear direction?

Win rate is not the most important factor in finding a good trading method. Profit potential/risk is.

The psychologically hardest one to trade is the one I use. I use the other extreme of the inside bar for my stop point.

The risk is as low as it is going to be and the best trades for us are the ones that don't give you ANY retracement after the breakout. Yes, you get stopped out a bit more than if you had the stop a bit farther away. We are trading to risk as little as possible for the greatest amount of potential gain.

Imagine the overall success rate of someone taking the opposite side of these breakout trades and only exiting when we exit. They would be trading with unlimited potential risk and only could look forward to very limited potential profits.

Apply the above thought structure to any system you can analyse and see which system would be the most dangerous to fade. That is the system you wish to trade.

The method we have been discussing is one of these extremely "dangerous-to-fade" systems.


------------------------------

Any of this look/sound familiar?
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

User avatar
razorboy
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 627
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2008 2:06 am
Reputation: 0
Location: Toronto
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby razorboy » Fri Jan 02, 2009 4:08 am

Very familiar:)

I guess the question is why does this work

"How many times do you find yourself buying a weaker currency instead of the stronger one, thinking that the weaker one "has" to catch up, or the stronger one has already moved as much as it is likely to already. "

From a logical point of view - the above quote seems correct - but my trading experience show this not to be the case

User avatar
TheRumpledOne
rank: 10000+ posts
rank: 10000+ posts
Posts: 11397
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 pm
Reputation: 45
Location: Oregon
Real name: Avery T. Horton, Jr.
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby TheRumpledOne » Fri Jan 02, 2009 5:29 am

Image

"Trading the "hot hand": Trading the strongest/weakest market is actually really simple. For example, yesterday the Eur/Usd was up more proportionately than the Usd/Chf was down. This was because the Usd/Chf wasn't even a down day. Definitely off its highs but not down relative to last week's close. The Eur/Usd was up, up and away! So that is the market you buy. "

Now, I'll now which one is up/down more as a percentage of each of the opens!
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

PeterD
rank: <50 posts
rank: <50 posts
Posts: 13
Joined: Tue Dec 23, 2008 1:00 am
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

Postby PeterD » Fri Jan 02, 2009 3:31 pm

Sorry TRO, I shouldn't have clicked on New Topic. I will click on "Post Reply" button next time!

Thanks for reminding me!

Peter

PeterD
rank: <50 posts
rank: <50 posts
Posts: 13
Joined: Tue Dec 23, 2008 1:00 am
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

1 loser 1 winner

Postby PeterD » Fri Jan 02, 2009 3:38 pm

Jumped in too early on 7th trade, but I was able to make it back on the 8th, still a winner to me!

I should stop posting, I was just having fun, I don't want to annoy anybody with these posts!

Pips for you guys, it's out there, just wait a little patient to grab them (I still need to work on "Patient")

Thanks again TRO!

Peter.
Attachments
Trades.JPG
Trades.JPG (127.23 KiB) Viewed 3255 times

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.


Return to “TheRumpledOne”