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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Wed Dec 31, 2008 9:37 pm

TheRumpledOne wrote:Image

I wrote the TRO2009 HIOP COUNT and TRO2009 OPLO COUNT to display the frequency.

168 H1 bars = 1 week. This shows how many times you can expect to take 10 pips or more from open to high and open to low.

These donational indictors will be sent out the those who contribute in 2009.


Incredibly powerful :evil: information!

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Wed Dec 31, 2008 11:13 pm

Image

MightyOne, your "incredibly powerful" comment got me thinking...

TRO2009 CANDLE RATIO tells you the HiOp vs OpLo ratio frequency of the candles.

If HiOp was 9% of the candle range, then OpLo was 91%.

If HiOp was 100% of the candle range, then OpLo was 0%.

So you can see the frequency distribution of the candles.
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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Thu Jan 01, 2009 12:59 am

TheRumpledOne wrote:Image

MightyOne, your "incredibly powerful" comment got me thinking...

TRO2009 CANDLE RATIO tells you the HiOp vs OpLo ratio frequency of the candles.

If HiOp was 9% of the candle range, then OpLo was 91%.

If HiOp was 100% of the candle range, then OpLo was 0%.

So you can see the frequency distribution of the candles.


If I am understanding this correctly then 70-100 would be a high push and 0-29 would be a low push.
The statistical trend would then be 36.31% bullish vs
32.74% bearish?

I don't know, I am still trying to understand it.

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Thu Jan 01, 2009 1:46 am

70 - 100 would mean that High - Open was 70 - 100 percent of the candle range.

0 - 29 would mean that Open - Low was 71 - 100 percent of the candle range.

Basically, it is reporting what percent of the candle's range was above the open vs what percent was below the open.
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Postby MightyOne » Thu Jan 01, 2009 7:16 am

This is what I was thinking along the lines of minimum goals:

Image

If you want to use a 20 SL then you would add 1, 4, 11, & 40.
56/288 = 19.4%.
(20SL * 0.806)/2 = 8
So if a 5m candle reaches a range of 20 pips 19.4% of the time then 80.6% of the time it does not.
If 80.6% of the time a candle does not reach 20 pips then chances are that you will not be able to scalp for 20 pips in one candle.

TRADERS TRICK:

Let price on the active candle move to your minimum goal, but don't have a TP order waiting.
For all you know price might spike 20 pips in your direction.

If your minimum goal is 8 pips and price spikes to or past 8 pips and settles back from the extreme then set a stop at the extreme.

Price might spike to 14 pips and then settle back to 7 and you still have 2m left. Set an order on +14 and see if you can get it.
If you are running out of time then you can exit or see what the next candles does, but beware if a buzzard lands on your head.

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:15 pm

Image

MightyOne:

Something is NOT clear.

16/288 = 5.5% That's your SL of 30 pips.

So far, so good.

(1+4+11+40+80) = 136.

136/288 = 47.2% For a TP of 10+

I don't understand -4% MSL, 30 SL 94.5% or your Target calculation.
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Postby MightyOne » Thu Jan 01, 2009 4:30 pm

TheRumpledOne wrote:Image

MightyOne:

Something is NOT clear.

16/288 = 5.5% That's your SL of 30 pips.

So far, so good.

(1+4+11+40+80) = 136.

136/288 = 47.2% For a TP of 10+

I don't understand -4% MSL, 30 SL 94.5% or your Target calculation.


30 SL 94.5%: I want to use a 30 pip SL because a 5m range reaches 30 pips 5.5% of the time so 94.5% of the time it does not.

If I want to use a 10 pip stop and price reaches 10 pips 47.2% of the time then 52.8% of the time it does not.
My minimum goal would then be (10 * 0.528)/2 for 2.64 or 3 pips.

-4% = 10 pips and MSL is saying that it is a mental stop loss as
I will have a -8% actual SL, but you can use a 10 pip real sl if you like.

The target calculation is for the minimum goal.
More often than not price will not reach 10 pips on 1 candle (53/47)
so price will move to a number that is less so I multiply 10 pips by the chance that it will not.
More often than not you will not capture the full range of your entry candle on the 5m so I divide by 2.

I was going to go into more detail on the last post and then the new years drinks hit me and I had to lay down :wink:

PS: Last post has been edited for more details as to the use of the minimum target calculation.

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Thu Jan 01, 2009 5:43 pm

http://www.ibfx.com/Tools/PowerStats.aspx

Something to add to your toolbox.
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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Thu Jan 01, 2009 7:41 pm

Image

Having fun with ATR.
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another neat little Dynamic Res line trick

Postby razorboy » Thu Jan 01, 2009 7:43 pm

If anyone cares to take a look for themselves, using the the dynamic res lines, their accuracy at picking entry points seems to increase greatly the longer the look back period is relative to the time frame of your chart - I suspect it is better at capturing the impact of the higher time frame on the lower (or maybe it is the lower on the higher - at some points I'm not sure).

Using a 1 minute chart, Set the fib look back period to say 35 to 40 minutes, set the custom candle indicator to 30 minutes and take the short or long signals generated by the "lower time frame" as confirmed by the color of of the custom candle (the higher time frame) - always trading with the direction of the higher time frame. You aren't trading 1 minute candles - you are trading of off 35 to 40 minute highs and lows.

I was doing this with the 60 minute custom candle, but found I was missing too many trades - i suspect the differential from the 1 minute chart to the 60 minute chart was too great - green 1 hour candle with a long wick is often a green 30 minute candle and a red 30 minute candle - separates out the bull and bear portions of the 1 hour candle

- makes me feel better anyways :)

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