Hey guys, my first post on this forum. I am also a Dragon trader.. trying to be at least .. one daycfabian and flex
, I also had a long bias on Friday morning (GMT) due to that massive H1 momo and took two full stops (2nd on re-entry) which took me the weekend to get over and figure out what happened:
1. The supply / resistance zone is created on 12 August in the upper 56 area. Railtracks indicate institutional order flow: big sell order inventory resting here.
2. Price is strongly rejects this area in the 1st test - shows this is a strong level and there are still tons of sellers (Are you guys familiar with the Sam Seiden school of thought?).
3. Price puts in a double top on 16 and 17 August & creates clean H1 supply level (grey). Lots of wickdolls indicating strong selling pressure still.
4. In the 4th test price puts in yet another strong departure & a pretty 15min supply level.
5. The 5th test is key here and shows the quality of the new 15min level: price only just dips in and drops away very quickly yet again. This is where TRO went short
6. Finally, there was a highter timeframe demand level just below the current price level acting as a magnet. Price had been trying to get there all week.
... and we were trying to buy this thing in the middle of nowhere!
So I think the mistake was that we were buying at a level where supply objectively exceeded demand. This is Sam Seiden's amateur mistake Nr 2. Mistake Nr 1 is *emotionally* buying after price has already rallied.
Of course this is all beautifully obvious in hindsight + I am probably overanalysing, but I had to write it all down to get over those stop outs.
I hope this helps somebody?!:roll: