lukx zline trading log + cfabian p.35 + adaseb p.48

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bredin
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Postby bredin » Thu Mar 25, 2010 9:32 pm

MightyOne wrote:
noone22 wrote:
es/pip wrote:I agree that fibs dont matter


OK, discretiaonal traders don't believe in Fibs.

The most funny definition of Fib and pivot lines,
I've ever heard is something like this:

They don't exist in reality, they are imaginery,
calculated & created by some "gurus",
exist on paper and in the books only,
but because too many traders read and heard about them,
they (traders) are watching these levels and putting
their orders (both Buy & Sell ones) in close proximity
of these lines, and that's why they (lines) are working for some
or not working for the majority of others.

It's seems to be some kind of special "zero-fib-line",
where ones are taking profit, and others are grabbing
profit from them.

I'm not discretional trader, but I'm starting to believe
in the above definition more & more.


Noone22 I know that you want to believe it is real but it is just a load of crap.

Once you understand the mind of the breakout / retracement trader and the magnitude of the chart (daily+ extremes) then you have everything.

Image

I think I see it, price breaks down and makes it to the 38% line, breakout traders move their stops to 0/5/10 (whatever) thinking they are onto a winner cos price has hit a magical fib level and get zeroed (some stalling), those that dont move their stops and get hit cause those stalls in the price as it continues up. The SL numbers are common stop levels in conventional trading... "psychological stops"

Am I actually SEEing peoples stops getting hit? Or am I manufacturing it to explain the stalls?

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adaseb
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Postby adaseb » Thu Mar 25, 2010 9:41 pm

spa wrote:
MightyOne wrote:It is like a book smart novice sitting down at the poker table.

You know what he is thinking so his numbers do not mean squat!

Image


some charts I get, but some just fly by, this one being one of those..

i see the breakout and the breakout traders being zeroed out(maybe that should be enough) but the rectangles which in hindsight look like decent targets i just don't get.. not to mention the previous chart which is a complete mystery.. ..

PS usually just follow quietly but i got a feeling there are more like me who look at this stuff and just don't get it


I think what MO is trying to demonstrate here ( I might be wrong) is that the breakout traders typically use stop losses of 30-35 and so assuming most traders entered at the breakout once they got stopped, the price rallied.

The rectangles I think are the resistance areas

spa
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Postby spa » Thu Mar 25, 2010 9:48 pm

ok..maybe i'm just thick or coz today was a long and tuff day i'm tired and not 100% .. while i see the breakout and how those got zeroed out i don't follow on how I could take that to bank for some pips...

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Postby es/pip » Thu Mar 25, 2010 11:21 pm

spa wrote:ok..maybe i'm just thick or coz today was a long and tuff day i'm tired and not 100% .. while i see the breakout and how those got zeroed out i don't follow on how I could take that to bank for some pips...



you tell me how to bank pips on that chart

if you held what MO has said to be true

1. most traders get ZL'ed

2. and the stuff about Extremes


how would you trade that chart based on the above?
Bend over and assume the position for another 4 years of hope and change.

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Postby Fxtraveller » Thu Mar 25, 2010 11:29 pm

Its midnight in Europe. Want to sleep badly.

Maybe the **** price will only move at the start of London session below that Low....

Sleeeeep... Awake..... sleep.... awake!!! The conditions for a SELL are getting more and more perffect, and could kick ANYTIME. This could be a trade of a lifetime....
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adaseb
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Postby adaseb » Thu Mar 25, 2010 11:34 pm

Fxtraveller wrote:Its midnight in Europe. Want to sleep badly.

Maybe the **** price will only move at the start of London session below that Low....

Sleeeeep... Awake..... sleep.... awake!!! The conditions for a SELL are getting more and more perffect, and could kick ANYTIME. This could be a trade of a lifetime....


Wouldn't you hate it if GU just went down right down and never reached that area?

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Postby es/pip » Thu Mar 25, 2010 11:47 pm

newark18 wrote:Image

The red bar labeled 1 created a zline and a body in the direction of profit. I should have sat back in that area until the green bar labeled 2 wicked me into a short trade towards the black H1 zline. Number 2 bar is a few bars after number 1 so I wasn't sure if this entry was correct.

Number 3 green bar created a zline marked with red line. Could I have entered into the trade at bar 4? Or did I lose all momo?



bar 1--- creates the momo

the bar after bar 1 is where you want to be looking short

bar 2 --- you can still look short off this bar as more of a S/R play-- bec it didnt happen on consecutive bars
i would be more cautious on that one bec the bar after the bar 1 zl'ed those traders


bar 4-- you can play off that zl as more of a s/r play bec it was not on consecutive bars--- i would have liked to play it two bars earlier, when it came into the high of the bar it broke out from --- and would be more hesitant on bar 4 bec of the stop run at the top and the momo coming down------- but i may still would have played it, would have had to watch it in real time to know for sure
Bend over and assume the position for another 4 years of hope and change.

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Postby Fxtraveller » Thu Mar 25, 2010 11:53 pm

adaseb wrote:
Fxtraveller wrote:Its midnight in Europe. Want to sleep badly.

Maybe the **** price will only move at the start of London session below that Low....

Sleeeeep... Awake..... sleep.... awake!!! The conditions for a SELL are getting more and more perffect, and could kick ANYTIME. This could be a trade of a lifetime....


Wouldn't you hate it if GU just went down right down and never reached that area?


Oh, that wouldnt bother me at all :) I'll take the typical BO trade. Look on the m15 chart. The low had already been tested a couple of times! I'll SELL the second a M5/M15 candle CLOSES below that support!

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Postby es/pip » Thu Mar 25, 2010 11:58 pm

1st time out at b/e

in now with a 9-1 R/R


once we come into the the zl area of this move i will tighten up how i manage getting out of it

Image
Bend over and assume the position for another 4 years of hope and change.

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Postby Fxtraveller » Fri Mar 26, 2010 12:14 am

HEY! where's the wick in d of loss and body in d of profit on GU??? ;(

Waiting on the sidelines. It might be a looong night

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