Mira wrote: LeMercenaire wrote:
Mira wrote:I’m restarting from zlines, I need to understand something (momentum I guess) that still doesn’t make me profitable.
The idea is to wait for a H4 or D1 momo, draw the zline and wait for a candle to retrace and to close wicking the zline.
(Here I’m posting the chart from my phone because I’m not at the pc atm)
First try was a fail, what’s the problem here?
Not bullish momentum? Not a zline? Or not a HH on the lower time frame?
The arrow is where I went long
I can never get a chart to post if I mark it up at all, so I will just have to try and verbalise what I am seeing. ''What's the problem here?'
' For me, I don't see that as anywhere near a large enough candle or multi-candle sign of MOMO. That's pretty much it.
What I personally would have been looking at would have been earlier, where you had a steady climb and halting, hesitant drop. From that, I would look left at the levels and mark the 50 and waddayaknow,
it's right around the Dead Cat Bounce. From that, I'd be waiting for price to retrace to that level and go short off it - and that's what you got.
Moving on, if you drew a fib from your last low to the last high, then I'd look at going long off of one of those, either 23.6 or 50, whichever gave the best pa.
Thanks for replying!
I tried to use fibs as you explained several times but I ended up being confused as always lol.
So was that a short??
I definitively don’t get the MOMO.. and so the direction and the zlines.
See if this can help make it clearer.
Here, the fib would be dropped down from point A and B. The bounce on the way down would have failed to hold over the 23.6 level on the way down. (I'll come back to this in the next chart detail).
So, now we have a break of the 50-level and Candle C closes over.
Now, maybe this is where some confusion would come in, as normally, we would say that well, close over, so we will be going long. However,
I feel that on the Daily tf, this (while not being completely invalid), should be treated with caution. Hence my saying that we didn't get a hold over on the previous move around the 23.6 on the way down.
We all know the concept of move + retrace + move again, so for me, on the Daily, I am looking for the close of the following candle. Does that have its retrace but still hold above the 50? In this case, no (as was the same on the way down at the 23.6, remember).Ahhhhhhhhhhh,
now you are seeing that this is actually not so. The next candle did in fact close above. Yep, it did, however, that was a gap-filler candle. The small candle opened gapped down and so the likelihood was that it would move to fill that gap, which it did. It didn't however, show any kind of inclination to go anywhere beyond that. So now we have a lower high to contend with.
So ok, you were looking to try long off it, as it gapped, you got something at least. You'd then have figured out that something was a bit off with it and hopefully closed it out for some green, knowing that you can always go in again if it does continue on.
Right, so now, for me, the 3rd candle is the one I want to treat as a nominal 2nd one...and that one very definitely doesn't
close above, quite emphatic in its desire to run South of the Border.
That would be Candle 3 (D) taken care of...
So down it goes. Tries to come back on us. Fails - and this is where it gets really
Candle E opens, makes its move back toward the 50-level and just shows no inclination to stay above it (and for this, we would be looking at pa on the lower time frames - but I don't want to clutter this and confuse with multiple tf charts).
As price comes back across the 50-level, in we go and we are in very good stead as price has just about reached the 23.6 level, which funnily enough, just happens to be where a secondary level of Demand has formed. Funny that, eh?
Right. One more thing. That good ol' MOMO we love so much.
If you take a look at the place we got in at, the pull back of Candle E. See where the High is? The bottom of the doji candle between C and D. Now, for me, candle D is standing over that DOJI and waving its great big MOMO in its face. So what we have is a perfect Z-Line to back up our candle E pull back to the 50.
Hope that all makes some kind of sense but please, never hesitate to ask for clarification.