Blind Mouse Strategy

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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Tue Nov 23, 2010 5:37 pm

newark18 wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
There is one leader, one follower, and one candidate for leader.



Candidate for leader? Hmmm...


Think of a single set of CC and think of the "rule" that you may enter a trade, when price is moving fast, when 2/3 the CC's period is complete.

Now you have the follower...

The follower or candidate could just as easily be a leading CC should you select it and the 2/3 rule would apply to those CC creating a follower.

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Postby newark18 » Tue Nov 23, 2010 8:12 pm

Yes, this is absolutely, utterly brilliant. Now how do I use it? :)
Failure is an opportunity to learn.

scheeco
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Postby scheeco » Wed Nov 24, 2010 4:15 pm

MO,
after reading this thread twice something you mentioned finally hit me! ( dont worry no serious bruises!)
Trade of the Higher timeframes!
My two trades-- I am still in them as I entered with 1/4 positions and there was no emotions involved and no stress!

Image

Image

Now my only issues is scaling in - currently I am EU 400 pips, GU 260 pips but have not scaled in once on either pair.
So here my question if you dont mind..
Would you suggest scaling in on the H1 or D1 as my entry was of the M15 Daily +Extreme?
I am currently waiting for D1 retrace before adding an average - you see the W1 for both is trending down so I figure I could wait for the retrace.

Thanks so much for all the information and help you give selflessly!

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Jalarupa
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Postby Jalarupa » Wed Nov 24, 2010 4:46 pm

Hey Scheeco... Thats really great trading and some sweet positions you got there!!! :D

MO talks about a 45 pip profit cushion, so when you are far enough in profit and it looks like MOMO is gonna carry it further in the direction of profit... Start adding another 1/4 position bringing ya average closer to PA but keeping it above resistance (in this case) - if there is room for more then add more - then you have two choices... You can keep scalping "taking small stabs into profit" and keeping your average far away from PA & building your equity (at higher leverage), or you can hold on to a few really great trades and then when you get that pullback you have been waiting for you can start to go ape sh!t on the leverage (keeping ya average above resistance) and laugh all the way to the bank... (if price has room to fall further...) its like MO says; you gotta trade the idea of where you see price going to in the long term and when it goes your way then you should be well leveraged to get the most out of the market... I also struggled with scaling (and still do, as I feel I'm a little too conservative) But you can even scale; and I'm sure MO does; intraday aggressively if PA & your position allows for it.

I was about 430 pips away from my first trade of this week on the EU this morning and I went 45:1 on the final 100 or so pips of the final fall of the EU today... price never even touched my average so I was fine finally liquidating that position adding another 38% to my account today :D

So yeah it should be done with gusto IMO :D
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scheeco
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Postby scheeco » Thu Nov 25, 2010 6:58 am

Cheers Jala,
appreciate the help.
I am going to average in as follows:
My money management is to risk only 2% per trade so for this I am doing the following:
Entry: 0.5%
First Average: 0.5%
Second Average: 1%
This will mean by the 2nd average I am using my full 2% with a profit cushion ( so essentially a free trade)
If PA pushes price down further I can perhaps add another average
Third Average: 2%
This will mean by the 3rd average I am using 4% leverage

Does this sound ok in so far as averaging is concerned?

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Jalarupa
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Postby Jalarupa » Thu Nov 25, 2010 8:35 am

Yeah that sounds really good...

Or you can use your full 2% pegged at a 50 pip stop loss risk... Enter off the high TF extreme (like you did)...

And keep adding 2% in your next trade and then 2x2% in your follow up trades... just as long as your average in tact, and if price goes close to your average (like in touching it) start think of deleveraging or taking a smaller profit... or Breakeven... Don't even think about taking the heat because you will be over extended according to your risk/reward ratio.

You will easily do 25% on your account if you can get these three orders out and price moves 100 pips in your favor.

You can even then begin to aggressively scalp 20-30 pips here and there...

In your current EU position you could have gone large on the leverage during last nites pullback... and liquidated those positions at the crash zone... without fear of taking too much heat or any at all for that matter...

I reckon when you so far into profit like you are, you can lay out some (proportionally leveraged trades) ie if you using 2% / 4 (per individual position) then you must use that same ratio times 4 or 5 (or how ever many you want) - x5 usually leave your Line far enough away from current PA. Try to not overpower your profit margin too much though... I hope this makes sense... That's why try to get that initial low risk 2% or 1.5% (at 50 -100 pips SL) out there quick and then keep adding... add like ya life depended on it... don't just sit back and get dumbstruck by the fact that your ccount is getting bigger... trade the mo'fo... (thats what I do... I watch with joy and forget that I am on the job...) when I look again it may be too late and I'll have to try again next session or next day...

btw... if you not comfortable with this... your way seems very valid and probably better in more volatile markets... but if you get a bounce off a prominent Fib line on a high TF then by all means GIVE IT HORNS! cuz you know where its going to go... ;-)

If the fundamentals match the technicals like the way they have been the past three weeks then you would be foolish not to tear the market a new one...

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Postby Jalarupa » Thu Nov 25, 2010 8:47 am

I'm sure MO has a better take on it than I do, but this is just what I have seen over the past three weeks chaos... :)
"our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate... our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure... It is our light, not our darkness that most frightens us..."

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scheeco
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Postby scheeco » Thu Nov 25, 2010 9:03 am

Thanks Jala,
you're a diamond tjomma!
I am not sure about risking 2% straight out like that - my balls shrink to much when it goes against me - thats why I like the 1/4 entries while I fish for the D+X. ( Not sure if that was ever MO 's idea but it feels like fishing till big one hooks)
But again , a better trader will pick that extreme better than I could but the thing is I am comfortable if a 1/4 goes against me. So that removes my emotions from trading.

I love this method though.
I can wait and plan this trade..it is like trading in slow motion.
Daily FCSR - M15 D+X - RAT the bastard
Now relax and average while enjoying the rest of the day.

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cfabian
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Postby cfabian » Thu Nov 25, 2010 5:59 pm

Jalarupa wrote:Yeah that sounds really good...

Or you can use your full 2% pegged at a 50 pip stop loss risk... Enter off the high TF extreme (like you did)...

And keep adding 2% in your next trade and then 2x2% in your follow up trades... just as long as your average in tact, and if price goes close to your average (like in touching it) start think of deleveraging or taking a smaller profit... or Breakeven... Don't even think about taking the heat because you will be over extended according to your risk/reward ratio.

You will easily do 25% on your account if you can get these three orders out and price moves 100 pips in your favor.

You can even then begin to aggressively scalp 20-30 pips here and there...

In your current EU position you could have gone large on the leverage during last nites pullback... and liquidated those positions at the crash zone... without fear of taking too much heat or any at all for that matter...

I reckon when you so far into profit like you are, you can lay out some (proportionally leveraged trades) ie if you using 2% / 4 (per individual position) then you must use that same ratio times 4 or 5 (or how ever many you want) - x5 usually leave your Line far enough away from current PA. Try to not overpower your profit margin too much though... I hope this makes sense... That's why try to get that initial low risk 2% or 1.5% (at 50 -100 pips SL) out there quick and then keep adding... add like ya life depended on it... don't just sit back and get dumbstruck by the fact that your ccount is getting bigger... trade the mo'fo... (thats what I do... I watch with joy and forget that I am on the job...) when I look again it may be too late and I'll have to try again next session or next day...

btw... if you not comfortable with this... your way seems very valid and probably better in more volatile markets... but if you get a bounce off a prominent Fib line on a high TF then by all means GIVE IT HORNS! cuz you know where its going to go... ;-)

If the fundamentals match the technicals like the way they have been the past three weeks then you would be foolish not to tear the market a new one...


Jalarupa,
When is a good moment to add positions? Wait for a pull back say on H1, and when breaking that retrace add positions so the avg is above/below the pullback's extreme?

Also, in order for this to work properly, a trending market is needed. I find it harder to find a daily trending than H4 or H1. What TF is the one you base your trend on?

Thanks
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cfabian
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Postby cfabian » Thu Nov 25, 2010 6:08 pm

Guys, this kind of setups are the ones that always kill me. Could someone please guide me as to how to properly look at them?

My perception was that the price was supporting on the blue line. HT was trending bullish. Wicks on the yellow circle are confirming rejection from the support zone. That is where I entered long, and then booom, nailed heavily by that strong down move.

Please make your comments on how you perceive this move, and for those who entered short when the down move started, what prevented you from closing your positions on that zone, to remain in the down move? What was your target/crash zone?

Thanks

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