2012 DRAIN THE BANKS LIKE A RAT .... CONTINUED

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newscalper
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Postby newscalper » Thu Mar 29, 2012 3:31 pm

TheRumpledOne wrote:
newscalper wrote:TRO - given the wick distribution of 20 pips would I be correct in saying that the ideal setup to capture the daily range would be as follows:

Green rat
Price above weekly open (not sure about this for Sunday going into Monday)
Price within 20 pips of daily low whereby daily low has not moved more than 20 pips lower than daily open i.e the high of the rat zone remains at the daily open.

Entry long within 20 pip rat zone or as price crosses back past open (i.e. opposite extreme first)?

If price prints a new low that ls further than 20 pips away from the daily open it's likely that price is going to continue breaking out and making new lows

??


Try not to THINK too hard or you'll end up in Yale.

Trade what YOU SEE!


What I SEE personally is that price within the daily context or the weekly context, using the open as reference is either breaking out/expanding or retracing and there's often 2 ideal entries per period.

At the beginning of a time period (where high, low and open are all the same price, and 20 pips from the extreme is 'inverted' ...anyone noticed that one yet with the rat indi at the daily open??, it's correct btw) price has to break out one way or the other, and after a certain period (at price extremes) will often but not always come back.

I've seen something quite interesting within the weekly context and price crossing a 20-25 pip line and continuing in that direction for a considerable distance: SEE which way price is moving and trade that direction - exactly what you used to show with hourly bars crossing a line TRO.

Stupidly simple trading that actually works more often than not, trading 1 candle (i.e. only 1 or two trades per week usually), using z-lines and suchlike for targets/exits.

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will80
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Rat Reversals

Postby will80 » Mon Apr 02, 2012 11:58 pm

Hi Avery - just wanted to say thanks for explaining your rat reversal strategy. I have been practicing it to some success lately and just wanted to say thanks for taking the time to let the rest of us know about it.

Many thanks,
Will :D

Relativity
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Postby Relativity » Wed Apr 11, 2012 3:11 pm

ALWAYS FOLLOW THE WEEKLY TREND

Yeah. TRO is correct.

Methodology of gathering weekly extremes statistics in relation to daily extremes
1-Box up monday to friday candle for a week, ignore sat and sunday candles if any
2-Mark the highest high and lowest low
3-Mark 10% area of the high and 10% area of the low
4-Check monday->tuesday->wednesday->thursday->friday, candle by candle for the week. If monday candle touches one of the 10% extremes, monday scores +1. This goes on for tuesday..etc
5-Move on to next week and repeat

Interesting results. The idea is to find out when and where the extremes of the week are likely to happen. The results show weekly extremes usually happen on monday and friday. Note that we are not going to consider direction at this point; it complicates things plus the issue of direction not a concern here. Direction is really relative here. Price at extreme isn't, so its easier to handle.

Whats more important is opportunities available and to gauge the context of trading weekly extremes. When we know that, then we can really talk about direction.

I am now fully convinced about 3 particular motions of PA / trading rules :
1-Follow the weekly trend; mondays really create the trend + winners wick. Try to enter here early via the breakout at a extreme. If you manage to do so, ride on it until wednesday. If you have a strong heart, ride on it until friday.
2-Wednesdays are good for range trading; since it shows the lowest occurrence of creation of weekly extremes. Breakouts can occur, but it will not be as strong.
3-Fridays can either finish off the weekly trend in the same direction, or try to make up some ground against the weekly trend. This explains why it can be a mixed day plus traders are offloading their positions if they decide holding trades over the weekend is a risk.

Pretty good. This helps to settle the mind better for the entire week + help the trader to plan way way better.

Image

roctao
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Postby roctao » Wed Apr 11, 2012 5:21 pm

AWESOME RELATIVITY!!!! just awesome...thanks for this post.

BrandX
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Postby BrandX » Fri Apr 13, 2012 5:46 pm

Relativity wrote:ALWAYS FOLLOW THE WEEKLY TREND


I am now fully convinced about 3 particular motions of PA / trading rules :
1-Follow the weekly trend; mondays really create the trend + winners wick. Try to enter here early via the breakout at a extreme. If you manage to do so, ride on it until wednesday. If you have a strong heart, ride on it until friday.
2-Wednesdays are good for range trading; since it shows the lowest occurrence of creation of weekly extremes. Breakouts can occur, but it will not be as strong.
3-Fridays can either finish off the weekly trend in the same direction, or try to make up some ground against the weekly trend. This explains why it can be a mixed day plus traders are offloading their positions if they decide holding trades over the weekend is a risk.

Pretty good. This helps to settle the mind better for the entire week + help the trader to plan way way better.

Image


I looked back a year on a daily chart eurusd, I marked Monday with green up arrow. I can only see Monday being correct on the weekly trend about 50% of the time.
Did I misunderstand the significance of Mondays?
Attachments
Monday1.jpg
Green arrow up is Mondays.
Monday1.jpg (120.31 KiB) Viewed 1707 times

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Relativity
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Postby Relativity » Fri Apr 13, 2012 11:45 pm

BrandX wrote:
Relativity wrote:ALWAYS FOLLOW THE WEEKLY TREND


I am now fully convinced about 3 particular motions of PA / trading rules :
1-Follow the weekly trend; mondays really create the trend + winners wick. Try to enter here early via the breakout at a extreme. If you manage to do so, ride on it until wednesday. If you have a strong heart, ride on it until friday.
2-Wednesdays are good for range trading; since it shows the lowest occurrence of creation of weekly extremes. Breakouts can occur, but it will not be as strong.
3-Fridays can either finish off the weekly trend in the same direction, or try to make up some ground against the weekly trend. This explains why it can be a mixed day plus traders are offloading their positions if they decide holding trades over the weekend is a risk.

Pretty good. This helps to settle the mind better for the entire week + help the trader to plan way way better.

Image


I looked back a year on a daily chart eurusd, I marked Monday with green up arrow. I can only see Monday being correct on the weekly trend about 50% of the time.
Did I misunderstand the significance of Mondays?


If you observe further, the significance of monday's PA creates the weekly 'winner's wick + winner's body' later in the week.

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Postby aldomcfaldo » Sat Apr 14, 2012 11:17 am

I don't know if this has much to do with this analysis but we know that for a red candle the low is made first around 80-90% of the time and the same for a green candle, the high is made first. Bredin has an indicator that shows the stats, II_OEF (opposite extreme first).

aldomcfaldo
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Postby aldomcfaldo » Sun Apr 15, 2012 8:54 am

Relativity, what do you mean by 'winners wick + winners body'?

Relativity
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Postby Relativity » Sun Apr 15, 2012 9:19 am

aldomcfaldo wrote:I don't know if this has much to do with this analysis but we know that for a red candle the low is made first around 80-90% of the time and the same for a green candle, the high is made first. Bredin has an indicator that shows the stats, II_OEF (opposite extreme first).


Red Candle? Green Candle? D1 or W1? I don't mind checking it out.

aldomcfaldo wrote:Relativity, what do you mean by 'winners wick + winners body'?


Do you see where and when is it more likely to form? At least in the ideal world, it won't be always like this. But if we have a reasonable idea to work off + the stats do support the motion, why not?
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aldomcfaldo
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Postby aldomcfaldo » Sun Apr 15, 2012 1:33 pm

Relativity wrote:
aldomcfaldo wrote:I don't know if this has much to do with this analysis but we know that for a red candle the low is made first around 80-90% of the time and the same for a green candle, the high is made first. Bredin has an indicator that shows the stats, II_OEF (opposite extreme first).


Red Candle? Green Candle? D1 or W1? I don't mind checking it out.

aldomcfaldo wrote:Relativity, what do you mean by 'winners wick + winners body'?


Do you see where and when is it more likely to form? At least in the ideal world, it won't be always like this. But if we have a reasonable idea to work off + the stats do support the motion, why not?


Simply any candle, hourly daily weekly monthly. So for a weekly candle that closes higher than the open the low price of that candle will be made before the high price of that candle 80-90% of the time. We still need to determine the direction though. So if we are a green or red rat we know when to buy or sell our stay away. For me direction comes from the higher time frame chart. If the daily is moving up I'll be buying at 20 pips from the daily lows.

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