2012 DRAIN THE BANKS LIKE A RAT .... CONTINUED

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jsme
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Postby jsme » Fri Mar 23, 2012 5:04 pm

paupau wrote:
jsme wrote:
paupau wrote:Based on your picture the daily low and daily high has not properly split yet.
I thought I read somewhere that we have to wait until they don't overlap each other?

Image


paupau, that very well may be true that the daily low and daily high are not allowed to overlap.

I am afraid I have not read that particular post. If that is an accurate statement, than I would agree that finding a trade on a market day open would be much more difficult to find.
For myself, I have found that this trading does work. If I am missing some of TRO rules, I am sorry to mislead anyone.
When I take a green rat trade (since I am a green rat) I use the rules that TRO repeats over and over.
In addition to those rules I use the filter of trading with the weekly and the hourly prices. But those are my views and should not be taken as TRO rules.
I have no statical analysis to back my additional filters up with, I only have personal observations.
Again it is not my intent to muddy the waters, I only wanted to point out that the trading style that TRO talks so much about. Has/does work very well for myself.


Hi jsme, I can't remember where I read about the daily high/low not to overlap. but I did remember and using it to filter my trades, which is why I have trouble finding the opportunities on mondays.

But if it has been working out well for you without checking it, then I think that's the most important thing. As long as you are making pips.

It leads me to another question, if this has been working well for you, does that mean that you only need to look at opening of the day as it'll always be below 20 pips of daily low? (Still based on W1 & H1 in green of course).
No
I have the difficulties of getting into trade because I don't have the time to look at the chart for hours and when I do have the time, none inside the daily low. so I can only found a few opportunities to trade every week.

I might check this out and see how it goes.


paupau, I will try to clear this up but if I am not clear. Please ask again.

Yes this type of trading is working well for me, and I had a similar problem as you described. At first I really did not have the time to watch charts for hours to wait for the correct set up. I was able to develop a method, more about that in a moment.
For starters, I look at the previous 24 hour periods, I do not go off the calendar daily low.
Hopefully I do not draw the wrath from anyone for saying that...
At the beginning of the trading week, I will still go back 24 hour periods and draw the low horizontal line.
As each passes the line might be re drawn.

Now because I move the low line along as each hour passes. I find that I can usually "spot" a possible trade set up coming or due to the normal daily trading range. I can see when I have a good chance of waiting a few hours before I might need to re check that chart.

Another thing that I have noticed, but is not a hard and fast rule.
Prices seem to swing between the London times and the New York times. What I mean is that if a 24 hour high is made during the London trading session. I will have a good chance of seeing a 24 hour low during the New York session. Or the reverse is also true.
If I note a 24 hour low during the London session, I will know that I will likely not see a new 24 hour LOW during the New York session.
This is not a 100% rule. It is just something I have noticed. But this is were the normal daily trading range comes in.
I find that by using these things. I can get an idea of when I will need to focus on looking for a new daily low. I do not need to stay focused on the computer all day long. The market moves in cycles and does not normally move all 24 hours in one direction.
But yes. I do have access to the computer all day and I will scan the charts as I want.
If I had a normal job, I would find this type of trading difficult to do. The lack of monitoring the charts would make this type of trading difficult to master. In my view.

So with that being said. Please indulge me as I explain what does work for me.
I target 2% a day for profit. 2% of my trading account balance.
Once reached I stop trading. I have found that staring at a computer all day is boring and my efficiency goes down.
So while I agree that the rat trade does work, I also look for other types of trading that works for myself. For me that also means I scalp based off of trading with the Hourly direction and the Weekly direction. (in addition to some other ideas I use) But it does not need to be off the 24 hour high or low. Also I will trade both long and short, but ONLY if a green rat trade is not setting up.
I use a strict SL of 10 pips. I only risk 2% of my trading account on any one trade. So I know that if 10 pips = 2%. I will also know that 5 pips = 1% or 2.5pips = 1/2% ect ect.
By knowing my exact amount risked, I find myself taking trades and exiting when I feel the prices have stalled. Even if that means I only make 1/2% off the trade.
By using multiple ways to trade, but knowing I have a hard and fast stop. I have found I can take small gains, which most trades I enter go into. Exit the trade, and await another trade set up. I do not make 2% off of each trade. I will stack small profits to get to my 2% goal.
I do not need to hit the big trade each time. On occasion I will take a trade and it will take off like a rocket. Those trades make me more than 2%.
If I try to make each trade pay me 2%....I will lose money overall. This is something I have noticed.

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Sylverayda
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Postby Sylverayda » Fri Mar 23, 2012 8:30 pm

Jsme,
Thank you for your contribution. I too find a lot of the things you have written educating. I envy you the 2%. I'm not there yet myself. I'm still learning so I risk very little and win very little in terms of money but I find I consistently win on Rat. From 70 to 150 pips a day. If I take bigger trades than a microlot, I lose more often than not. I have a SL 17 but I recently found that indeed 10 is enough if you wait for a perfect entry.
TRO if you read this, IMHO "Over and over and over again" is the best lesson worth repeating. It really works.

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Postby newscalper » Sat Mar 24, 2012 7:24 am

TRO - given the wick distribution of 20 pips would I be correct in saying that the ideal setup to capture the daily range would be as follows:

Green rat
Price above weekly open (not sure about this for Sunday going into Monday)
Price within 20 pips of daily low whereby daily low has not moved more than 20 pips lower than daily open i.e the high of the rat zone remains at the daily open.

Entry long within 20 pip rat zone or as price crosses back past open (i.e. opposite extreme first)?

If price prints a new low that ls further than 20 pips away from the daily open it's likely that price is going to continue breaking out and making new lows

??
Last edited by newscalper on Sun Mar 25, 2012 12:00 am, edited 1 time in total.

jsme
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Postby jsme » Sat Mar 24, 2012 5:07 pm

Sylverayda wrote:Jsme,
Thank you for your contribution. I too find a lot of the things you have written educating. I envy you the 2%. I'm not there yet myself. I'm still learning so I risk very little and win very little in terms of money but I find I consistently win on Rat. From 70 to 150 pips a day. If I take bigger trades than a microlot, I lose more often than not. I have a SL 17 but I recently found that indeed 10 is enough if you wait for a perfect entry.
TRO if you read this, IMHO "Over and over and over again" is the best lesson worth repeating. It really works.


Sylverayda, here is what works for me and perhaps it can assist you.
I keep detailed records of each trade. Than after reading some comments of TRO's. I put two and two together.
I can not control the trade. I enter the trade than it is out of my control. I can only control my risk taken in the trade.
So since that is all I can control, and we know I am willing to risk 2% and 2% is 10 pips.
I will ask you this. If you go back over your trades, how many of the losing trades were at one time 2 or 3 pips in the gain before they hit the SL?
If you are like me, a good deal of them were.
Now I personally HATE to lose at a trade. I found that if I take a smaller gain, and more of those types of trades I was able to get to my 10 pip a day target (2%)
Taking a hit on a trade stinks....taking a bigger hit really stinks. So if I enter a trade and it just is not going my way. I will take it out before the SL is hit.
One type of trade that I enjoy is as follows.
In addition to the green rat reversal.
If prices are above the weekly open, above the daily open and above the hourly open...odds are I am not going to see a green rat reversal trade soon.
So instead I will go with a pull back in prices. Than enter at a break of that pull back high. This is assuming that the pull back does not break the Hourly open.
My SL is the low of that pull back candle.
TP is what I can get but normally I take 3-5 pips off of this type of trade.

Happy pips to you

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Postby Sylverayda » Sun Mar 25, 2012 8:41 am

jsme,
thank you again. i will try out your apprach too. it sounds very safe. already i found that if i make a precise entry with the daily candle i most likely win.
as i am very new to forex i need to train my mind more than anyting else (e.g. demos dont work for me at all - i win all the time there). my psychology hates losing to :) with small risk i am able to make many pips and i keep cool both about being in the green or in the red. the most important for me now is to control my emotions and remain consistent. that's my goal for this year. i know its way too early for me to earn money here but i stopped losing (largely due to TRO's book) and i'm slowly taking back what's mine.

as far as losing trades due to SL hit - recently i have that very rarely (i read many posts about this problem and i know many ppl have it). myself i don't have that very often and i think it's because i don't make frequent trades. i mostly wait a long time for a good setup and make max about 3 trades daily. this works for me.

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paupau
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Postby paupau » Mon Mar 26, 2012 5:23 am

Hi jsme, really appreciate for what you've been contributing here.
It's really good to know how other traders are actually doing the trade because I always feel like I'm not doing the right thing.

I don't have many losing trades when I trade from the daily low, but to reach 2% daily is very difficult since I can only find few opportunities every week.
I do keep a record of all my trades and my 'missed trade' (the trade I would've got in if I was in front of the computer) and I also noticed that getting the small pips is better than trying to get 2% on a trade. I tried to get 5 pips on each trade, if it reach 3 pips the SL moved to BE.

This is what I normally do every day
I use Alpari UK for charting and Oanda for trading.
My daily job start at 8am (Australian time), Sydney open at 7am and my Alpari start the new daily rat chart at 8am. So it'll be at least few hours before I can see the right setup. this is ok for me because I wouldn't normally be able to trade during work hours anyway, except on a very slow day.
Come home around 6pm, start the computer, can't really trade at this time though, dinner, family time, 6 mth old baby commitment. I can really go into the trade starting at 10pm which is the New York open and only for 2 hours.
At this time I'll check which pairs are within the daily low, with D1/W1 green and H1 also green. If all filters are good then I'll wait for the Red Green Green. But most of the time I rather wait for Red Red Red Green Green. This is from 'Rules of Thumb' thread, I have much higher win percentage by doing this.
But because of all these filters & time restriction, I could hardly get a trade in a day, let alone to achieve my 2% daily goals. And sometimes it's very annoying watching a charts go up and up and up while knowing that your filters stop you from going in the trade.

So I think I will try what you are doing (find another type of trading) from now on. I'm gonna check on your 'pull back' strategy also.

Just wondering, which MT4 do you use for charting?
I'm also starting to use MBT MT4 because it has different open day for charting.

Thanks

jsme
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Postby jsme » Mon Mar 26, 2012 4:22 pm

paupau, you are very welcomed.

Trading is a battle in my view, so any information that can be useful to others, that is great news to me.
After reading your post, I can sympathies with a few points. One big one is watching a trading race away while I just sit on the side lines...
That one for me has been a real hard one to sit and wait for my set up..but wait I do and yes it does pay off for me.

I do not want to hy-jack this thread and out of respect to TRO (who frankly helped me tremendously) I am going to refrain from talking about other types of trades I use. I will from now on just stick in this thread to rat trades I take (green ones for me)

But I will start a new thread where I will talk about the types of trades I find profitable and perhaps you will be able to find some nuggets of information that will assist you in making more money from trading.

Cheers

P.S. I almost forgot to answer your quesiton. I use Oanda for charting, but to re iterate. I go off the previous 24 hours bars not the daily open when looking for the low to trade off

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Postby TheRumpledOne » Mon Mar 26, 2012 9:50 pm

newscalper wrote:TRO - given the wick distribution of 20 pips would I be correct in saying that the ideal setup to capture the daily range would be as follows:

Green rat
Price above weekly open (not sure about this for Sunday going into Monday)
Price within 20 pips of daily low whereby daily low has not moved more than 20 pips lower than daily open i.e the high of the rat zone remains at the daily open.

Entry long within 20 pip rat zone or as price crosses back past open (i.e. opposite extreme first)?

If price prints a new low that ls further than 20 pips away from the daily open it's likely that price is going to continue breaking out and making new lows

??


Try not to THINK too hard or you'll end up in Yale.

Trade what YOU SEE!
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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Postby TheRumpledOne » Mon Mar 26, 2012 9:52 pm

jsme wrote:paupau, you are very welcomed.

Trading is a battle in my view, so any information that can be useful to others, that is great news to me.
After reading your post, I can sympathies with a few points. One big one is watching a trading race away while I just sit on the side lines...
That one for me has been a real hard one to sit and wait for my set up..but wait I do and yes it does pay off for me.

I do not want to hy-jack this thread and out of respect to TRO (who frankly helped me tremendously) I am going to refrain from talking about other types of trades I use. I will from now on just stick in this thread to rat trades I take (green ones for me)

But I will start a new thread where I will talk about the types of trades I find profitable and perhaps you will be able to find some nuggets of information that will assist you in making more money from trading.

Cheers

P.S. I almost forgot to answer your quesiton. I use Oanda for charting, but to re iterate. I go off the previous 24 hours bars not the daily open when looking for the low to trade off


Yes, feel free to start your own thread.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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Thinking-not a good thing to do when trading...Hmmm

Postby Fingobob » Tue Mar 27, 2012 2:05 am

Thanks TRO,
your perspective is refreshingly clean and for the most part calibrating our perspective.
though we do have smaller tactical issues to deal with as quite a number of us are not full time traders.

T jsme and Pau pau.
Thanks for your input. been reading it wt great interest.
P P i am in the same boat as yourself. So having the same struggles tht you had mentioned.

Wil post a fix if i can find one.
Cheers guys.





TheRumpledOne wrote:
newscalper wrote:TRO - given the wick distribution of 20 pips would I be correct in saying that the ideal setup to capture the daily range would be as follows:

Green rat
Price above weekly open (not sure about this for Sunday going into Monday)
Price within 20 pips of daily low whereby daily low has not moved more than 20 pips lower than daily open i.e the high of the rat zone remains at the daily open.

Entry long within 20 pip rat zone or as price crosses back past open (i.e. opposite extreme first)?

If price prints a new low that ls further than 20 pips away from the daily open it's likely that price is going to continue breaking out and making new lows

??


Try not to THINK too hard or you'll end up in Yale.

Trade what YOU SEE!

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