free & uncensored discussion arena for TheRumpledOne

Moderator: moderators

newscalper
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1068
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2010 5:58 pm
Reputation: 5
Gender:
No.

Price is the same on all timeframes as TRO has quite clearly and emphatically stated.

A timeframe is just fixed 'photograph' of the market over a block of time.

No matter what chart you are looking at price is the same on all. If current market price is 4 it is 4 whether you look at 5 min, 15 min 4, hr, etc etc and it was ever thus and ever will be.

What is different is average range of price movement for each block of time.

While looking at the market as price bars helps us to make sense of what has happened, the market itself is fluid.

bredin
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1032
Joined: Mon Feb 16, 2009 10:41 pm
Reputation: 4
Gender:
Contact:
wangyue22 wrote:since market is up/down 50/50 the probablity of 3 down/up bars is really .5^3 power or 12.5% of this occurance happening and if market tries to go back into equilibrium of being 50/50 then there will be ~ 87.5% chance that the next bar is going to close opposite of the previous 3 bars.

This is not mathematically true..... the probability of the next bar closing opposite after 3 consecutively colored bars is still 50%, since the occurance of (eg) RRRg is 6.25% (.5^4) while RRRR is also 6.25% (.5^4).

If the math were as you say then buzzards would rule trading

G. (incorrect probability math costs money)
The previous message contains discretion. Viewer nudity is advised.
Insanity Industries Indicators Here

wangyue22
rank: <50 posts
Posts: 44
Joined: Sun Dec 26, 2010 8:12 am
Reputation: 0
Location: US
Gender:
bredin wrote:
wangyue22 wrote:since market is up/down 50/50 the probablity of 3 down/up bars is really .5^3 power or 12.5% of this occurance happening and if market tries to go back into equilibrium of being 50/50 then there will be ~ 87.5% chance that the next bar is going to close opposite of the previous 3 bars.

This is not mathematically true..... the probability of the next bar closing opposite after 3 consecutively colored bars is still 50%, since the occurance of (eg) RRRg is 6.25% (.5^4) while RRRR is also 6.25% (.5^4).

If the math were as you say then buzzards would rule trading

G. (incorrect probability math costs money)

o.O.

i thought you got me. bredin, until i stepped back a bit. as a whole the market is fifty/fifty, counting R/G candles since candle 1 for a very large sample. however, market is random in the sense that how this 50/50 ratio achieved is random. hope that makes sense. -.- and sorry if it sounds like a preacher.

if we have 10 candles, and these 10 candles represent the entire market since the day it was conceived. (decade candles, market can be a candle growing, or it can be infinite amount of candles, which ever you way you want to perceive it)

if market is suppose to be 50/50, you just had 3 RRR marble in a row, what are the chances a G marble is gonna be picked out by you next time???

and who said math geeks dont rule the market. (wealth and power is related but not directly the same, a seed of an idea is more powerful than money. ^.^)

we are thinking big when when we think about time frames. apply the same but drilling it down to the market core (tick chart) and you will find why HFT exist and why they are so profitable.

this then going back to my other thread, warren buffet invest longterm using his tools to get high probability trades on weekly if not monthly basis using "FUNDIS" whereas HFT from goldman sac use indis (order flow, supply/demand) to trade on the micro scale. same concept, different go about doing it

hehe, you almost got me. and thank you for making me writing this, its much clearer in my head now.

i apologize if this offends you or the tone is not a helping one, as still working on the right brain of mine.

since we got to power and wealth, i have a interesting theory about it. there is a nice correlation between right and left handed people, but i wont post it here, since it is more general and i dont have all the statistical proof (o.O)
"find a job you love and you will never work a day in your life" Confucius

"its all relative" Eisenstein

"if you love everything, then nothing is work, if you think everything is work, then nothing is work" Confustein ^.^

newscalper
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1068
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2010 5:58 pm
Reputation: 5
Gender:
TheRumpledOne wrote:

Long trigger is open + 4.

You can see from the frequency distribution that over the last 100 days, this would be profitable more times than not.

Using what was learned from the BUY ZONE and the RAT should prove to be very profitable .

TRO - you've missed the advice or rule about above below weekly open out of the rat rules, last rule is if it doesn't mention it it's of no concern so this needs to be mentioned I think?

Right...dagnabbit I'm going to open Pandoras box and ask.

I cannot SEE that over the last 100 days this would have been more profitable than not. All I SEE is that price more than not eventually went more than 20 pips, it doesn't take your 10 pip stop and negative excursion from your entry into account.

I know I had this conversation with you before Christmas about something else and your answer was it was in the realm of back-testing and we know your view on that.

OK, but how is looking at past bars and how far they've moved in one direction not back-testing? How it it any different to knowing how far they've moved in one direction before how far they've moved in the other, it's just another statistic?

I'm just looking for clarity of thought on this, please.

I'm left handed btw.
Last edited by newscalper on Mon Jan 10, 2011 4:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.

bredin
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1032
Joined: Mon Feb 16, 2009 10:41 pm
Reputation: 4
Gender:
Contact:
newscalper,

OEF : Opposite Extreme First

With this in mind look over a daily chart again, but then look again as m5 (or m15) candles watching what happens in relation to the daily open.

G.
The previous message contains discretion. Viewer nudity is advised.
Insanity Industries Indicators Here

newscalper
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1068
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2010 5:58 pm
Reputation: 5
Gender:
bredin wrote:newscalper,

OEF : Opposite Extreme First

With this in mind look over a daily chart again, but then look again as m5 (or m15) candles watching what happens in relation to the daily open.

G.

Cheers Bredin Yeah I know what to look for, I think, but afaik (might be wrong here LOL) TROs charts haven't shown that. Is there a dashboard or something for OEF? Even then I'm not certain how OEF comes into the context of the 10 pip stop, that's just showing us if it hits daily high or low first isn't it? Doesn't take into account amount of wiggle to get there and AFAIK we aren't going down to 5 etc to time entry on this we just enter at the line with a 10 pip stop....

Or do you mean wait for price to hit the opposite extreme then come back across the open, then enter?

newscalper
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1068
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2010 5:58 pm
Reputation: 5
Gender:
Hmm
Maybe I'm seeing something here:

trueblueTEX
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 532
Joined: Mon Apr 12, 2010 4:38 pm
Reputation: 1
Gender:
Newscalper,

I'm a bit of a dumkopf and I feel like I'm just looking at a Rorshach blot. Could you elaborate on what you are seeing? And maybe even how/when to react to what you see?

I'm still all confused as to what TRO is adapting to, here

Thanks
TEX

newscalper
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1068
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2010 5:58 pm
Reputation: 5
Gender:
Bredin said about price going to the opposite extreme then coming back across the open.

5 min chart, yellow line = weekly open. Look for daily rat then observe, the trade here is on the third day. The chart shows a nice win, lots of trades don't win but I don't want to post that chart.

I think you must to be prepared to place more than one trade a day but not overtrade, maybe limit to only one per hour when price is crossing the daily open.

I see many trades that don't work but also many that make a large profit, statistics on this are???

Trade management is key and your rules for exit. I don't agree with 'if you see 2 pips it's a win' etc (sorry TRO) because if you think like that you don't know when to hold and when to fold, or with trailing stop at 5 pips etc. you'll get crazy stopped out: isn't Zline about that? But I also see that by averaging out you can sometimes hold on all day or even for days with little risk , which is what I was talking to TRO about b4 Xtmas in 2%. i.e. if we know the probability of our trade going + pips before our stop we can take off part of our position and hold. It's the missing part of the puzzle.

TygerKrane
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1609
Joined: Mon Jan 25, 2010 3:36 pm
Reputation: 200
Location: Long Island, NY
Gender:
{Taking a little breather from work...}
trueblue, here goes...

M5 chart compressed (yes, it DOES look like Rorschach, )
The bigger CC represents Daily Candle; the smaller CC represents H1.

Buy Zone allows you to scalp in either direction at day open based on the statistics that price MOVES from the Day Open (it can't be denied, price always does that. Additionally, you RARELY get a 20 pip range day with a max of only 10 pips on both sides of the open.)

Couple that with trading in anticipation of a D1 Rat Reversal being formed and that is the line of logic you are going with.

Another thing you might could see is that he can scalp either direction via the Buy Zone; but he'll be biased to hold the trade longer which allows for a D1 Rat Reversal to be fulfilled when all is said and done and the D1 candle actually closes.

~Krane

::EDIT::
newscalper replied while I was posting my reply

**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!