2009.09.10 DRAIN THE BANKS - LIKE A RAT

free & uncensored discussion arena for TheRumpledOne

Moderator: moderators

jackm1
rank: <50 posts
rank: <50 posts
Posts: 14
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 5:07 pm
Reputation: 0
Location: San Francisco, CA
Gender: Male

Postby jackm1 » Sun Oct 25, 2009 8:56 pm

" make money consistently with it simply by controlling their exits and using proper money management. "

You said it man, its 90% of MM.

A simple MA crossover can make people rich if they just know, understand and practice sound MM methods. This is the Holy Garil as I see it.
All paid jobs absorb and degrade the mind. -Aristotle

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

User avatar
RicG
rank: 150+ posts
rank: 150+ posts
Posts: 274
Joined: Tue Jul 24, 2007 11:44 pm
Reputation: 0
Location: Nashville, TN
Gender: Male

Postby RicG » Sun Oct 25, 2009 9:07 pm

The "Five Fundamental Truths" from the book, "Trading In the Zone" by Mark Douglas:

1) Anything can happen.

2) You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.

3) There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.

4) An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.

5) Every moment in the market is unique.


Regards,
Ric

User avatar
Patch
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 941
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2007 6:13 pm
Reputation: 0
Location: Virginia
Real name: Jeff
Gender: Male
Contact:

Postby Patch » Sun Oct 25, 2009 9:34 pm

snscott

I dare say I think that dragon33, es/pip, MO, dchappy and others on this site and others are doing a lot better than position size and exit management. Perhaps all of the above. If the market was truly 100% Yale random they would not be getting the profit results they are getting.

Right now I theorize and truly believe that the distribution of wicks and tails on various time frames is one of the key elements that will give me an edge and either help me if I observe them, or hurt my profit chances if I ignore them. Is it purely random that of 150 candle in the M1 time frame over a particular time span, have 0-2 pip wicks 97.12% of the time, and with regards to tails 98.31%? For a heads or tails coin flip test, might we expect 50-50 randomness?

To tell you the truth, I don't know the real, whole, true truth in this whole matter. I am expressing my thoughts and suspicions. In my heart I think this is like the guy who said the world was flat. He didn't know what he was talking about as the authors who got in paper and print and were not worth the paper or ink used to propagate their work. But for now we live in a free country with the freedoms to publish and promote our ideas freely in whatever distribution format we may choose.

You can call me anything but Yalie from now on though.

God Bless and Keep America Brave and Free,

Patch
In VA
Saluting
ENOUGH being a Yalie for me Back to the Sea. "What i can lose, i can win" "YES YOU CAN" - dragon33 -"Pick one method and one pair and stick with them until you master it. "The choice is yours - success or failure." TRO

User avatar
TheRumpledOne
rank: 10000+ posts
rank: 10000+ posts
Posts: 11418
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 pm
Reputation: 45
Location: Oregon
Real name: Avery T. Horton, Jr.
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby TheRumpledOne » Sun Oct 25, 2009 11:13 pm

snscott wrote:You know, the Yale Rat story is interesting, but I think it is important to note that the Rat did not really just choose a random direction to turn.

The setup for the experiments states that the "random" food placement was weighted to put food to the left 60% of the time, so it was not purely a case of "always turning left" made the rat win more than the students in a PURELY RANDOM situation. It was "random", but rigged such that the food was slightly more likely to appear on the left. And it was that small fact that "allowed" the rat to beat the students.

The article even says that the Rat LEARNED that he had a better chance of getting food if he went to the left. So, it was not a case of the rat just willy-nilly deciding he was a "left-turning" rat at birth.

Meanwhile, the HUMANS might have also realized (at some level) that food came up on the left slightly more often - which is why they tried to establish some kind of pattern or rules to follow (like 2 rights are followed by 3 lefts - or whatever).

How is that any different from us humans establishing "rules" to govern how we trade the random market that say, for example, a green candle, followed by a red candle, followed by another red candle that breaks lower than the low of the previous red candle is a "valid signal" that the RED Rats are going to get fed?

Isn't the "Rat Reversal" system (or any system) still exactly the same human-thought-process that made the Yale students "lose" against the rats?

Now, some might say that the "rat reversal" rules are using a candle configuration to establish which direction has that "60% edge" over the other - but in actuality, the market is still RANDOM, so aren't you're still using a YALE Brain when you think that the price action on the previous two candles plus the current candle gives you an "edge"?

Either the market is truly random and therefore no amount of number crunching on statistics will really help, or it isn't random and has some level of order or rationality and therefore "predictability" to it.

You have to decide which you believe, I suppose.


Image

You are about to win a YALE SCHOLARSHIP!

The RATS beat the Yale students. Why?

Because the RATS "realized" that if they ALWAYS TURNED LEFT they would get food.

The question is HOW CAN WE APPLY THIS TO TRADING?

The answer is BY ALWAYS TRADING IN ONE DIRECTION.

Look at the chart. Does it matter if you are a RED RAT or a GREEN RAT? NO, so long as you NEVER SWITCH DIRECTION. Each rat could have made over 100 pips last week by trading off the high or low.

What I am seeing is that if you are a green rat if you trade when price is above the weekly open (white line) and if you are a red rat if you trade when price is below the week open, you get the most cheese.

This is REALLY SIMPLE so long as you are NOT a YALE STUDENT...LOL!!
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

User avatar
snscott
rank: 50+ posts
rank: 50+ posts
Posts: 60
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 2:15 pm
Reputation: 0
Location: Great Republic Of Texas
Real name: Steven Scott
Gender: Male

Postby snscott » Sun Oct 25, 2009 11:16 pm

I just want to make it clear, in case it is not, that I am NOT "ragging on" or condemning anyone or any system, or anything of that nature.

I'm simply discussing how market randomness (if it exists) and the Yale Rat scenario fits in with trading Forex - to help improve MY understanding.

I am way too much of a 4X noob to have any definitive opinions one way or the other. All I can do is speculate on my observations and lots (and lots) of reading.

Like most of you on here, I'm still climbing that steep learning curve - and sometimes it helps to toss around ideas to see how far off track I am at any given moment. :-)

So, please, don't anyone take any of this discussion in any way as me saying "your idea/system is stupid".

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

User avatar
TheRumpledOne
rank: 10000+ posts
rank: 10000+ posts
Posts: 11418
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 pm
Reputation: 45
Location: Oregon
Real name: Avery T. Horton, Jr.
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby TheRumpledOne » Mon Oct 26, 2009 12:21 am

It is NOT my intention to be rude or harsh.

I am being BLUNT when I point out Yale like statements, comments, thinking, etc.

You have to learn to get control of your brain and see when it is steering you towards Yale.

This is very simple and basic. Most attempts to "improve" it will land you in Yale.

If you reread all of the quotes I have been posting over and over again, you'll either "get it" or be doomed to Yale.

I read the rat quote about 5 times until the light bulb finally came on! I knew there was something there and I had to dig it out.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

User avatar
snscott
rank: 50+ posts
rank: 50+ posts
Posts: 60
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 2:15 pm
Reputation: 0
Location: Great Republic Of Texas
Real name: Steven Scott
Gender: Male

Postby snscott » Mon Oct 26, 2009 12:30 am

TheRumpledOne wrote:It is NOT my intention to be rude or harsh.

I am being BLUNT when I point out Yale like statements, comments, thinking, etc.

You have to learn to get control of your brain and see when it is steering you towards Yale.

This is very simple and basic. Most attempts to "improve" it will land you in Yale.

If you reread all of the quotes I have been posting over and over again, you'll either "get it" or be doomed to Yale.

I read the rat quote about 5 times until the light bulb finally came on! I knew there was something there and I had to dig it out.


I am maintaining a "TRO QUOTES" file where I cut and paste stuff from various posts so I can have them all accumlated in one easy to scan place. I am working on it. :oops:

User avatar
TheRumpledOne
rank: 10000+ posts
rank: 10000+ posts
Posts: 11418
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 pm
Reputation: 45
Location: Oregon
Real name: Avery T. Horton, Jr.
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby TheRumpledOne » Mon Oct 26, 2009 12:38 am

Image

RED RAT
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

User avatar
TheRumpledOne
rank: 10000+ posts
rank: 10000+ posts
Posts: 11418
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 pm
Reputation: 45
Location: Oregon
Real name: Avery T. Horton, Jr.
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby TheRumpledOne » Mon Oct 26, 2009 12:39 am

snscott wrote:
TheRumpledOne wrote:It is NOT my intention to be rude or harsh.

I am being BLUNT when I point out Yale like statements, comments, thinking, etc.

You have to learn to get control of your brain and see when it is steering you towards Yale.

This is very simple and basic. Most attempts to "improve" it will land you in Yale.

If you reread all of the quotes I have been posting over and over again, you'll either "get it" or be doomed to Yale.

I read the rat quote about 5 times until the light bulb finally came on! I knew there was something there and I had to dig it out.


I am maintaining a "TRO QUOTES" file where I cut and paste stuff from various posts so I can have them all accumlated in one easy to scan place. I am working on it. :oops:


I meant the books that I quoted.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

User avatar
Patch
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 941
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2007 6:13 pm
Reputation: 0
Location: Virginia
Real name: Jeff
Gender: Male
Contact:

Postby Patch » Mon Oct 26, 2009 1:07 am

TRO

I was just wondering, did you go to Yale?

Now I wish I had gone to Yale.

Am I correct that what you are saying by be a green rat or a red rat is to master the trade one way or the other, before you move onto the reverse trade direction strategy?

This make good sense to me. I hope by asking this question I am not proving myself to be a Yalie. A good friend of mine went to Yale and he was definitely a brain-e-act.

Patch
ENOUGH being a Yalie for me Back to the Sea. "What i can lose, i can win" "YES YOU CAN" - dragon33 -"Pick one method and one pair and stick with them until you master it. "The choice is yours - success or failure." TRO

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.


Return to “TheRumpledOne”