2009.09.10 DRAIN THE BANKS - LIKE A RAT

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Mon Oct 17, 2011 2:00 pm

Image

"Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

P64 HOW WE DECIDE (italics added)

========================= ====================

"Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist." - H. Rearden

=============================================

1) Price within 20 pips of the daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

============================================

WHY ISN'T EVERYBODY DOING IT?

Most of you know I catch a lot of flak on my forums because SOME PEOPLE don't like the way I post.

One worn out argument that is used repeatedly is, "If this is so (simple, great, profitable, ), then why isn't everybody doing it?"

Simple answer is because SOYLENT GREEN is people!

We all know exercise is great, but how many actually exercise?

We all know smoking is bad, but how many do it anyway?

We all know which foods are bad for our health, but how many eat those foods?

We all know that we should save for our future and spend less than we earn but who does that?

The list is almost endless.

As long as there are people, there will always be some STUPID people and some smart people making STUPID decisions, where STUPID is defined as knowing better but acting otherwise.

Meanwhile, the RATS are still beating the Yale students.

=============================================

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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nickohorny
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Postby nickohorny » Mon Oct 17, 2011 2:17 pm

ok, so I just right click on chart 'refresh' and this is what it is? my ninjatrader shows same price trading.. so it's whats making me think is something wrong with the multipip chart..

Sorry, I appreciate it's not really your concern and a tech question like this shouldn't be bothering you with but it's just frustrating me that it isn't synching correctly lol grrrrr!

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Postby nickohorny » Mon Oct 17, 2011 2:21 pm

Just looking at your HLC_PIP chart above yours shows GBPCHF at 107 in column ClLo compared to mine being below 20?! surely my indicator is off but I've not touched anything within the settings.

nickohorny
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Postby nickohorny » Mon Oct 17, 2011 2:24 pm

lol figured it out! :oops:
Had the HLC pip chart setup on H1 instead of D1.. sorry about that! either way glad i've sorted it! was doing my head in.

:roll:

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bettlebox
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Postby bettlebox » Tue Oct 18, 2011 8:17 am

Tro

EDIT- in the picture - candle marked "I" should read "broke high and low regard to previous candle, body closed "red"".


I starting to luv these statements they are unlocking things in my mind.

If i was a green rat then i would not be entering a trade on a candle thats "breaking to the low" of pervious candle, i would be waiting for price to start breaking to the high, then and only then i would be looking for my rat trade. Heres what i see:-

For example i won't go long on the break of the green candle(one just before candle marked "A") because that green candle "Broke to the low" in regard to candle previous.

(i ran out of space for comments on candles marked "J" and "k" but you get the idea)



BB

TheRumpledOne wrote:Image

RESULTS.

"Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist."
- H. Rearden
There are two forces acting upon us: Suffering pushes us forward from behind and pleasures entice us and pull us forward.

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oldmangeezer
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Postby oldmangeezer » Tue Oct 18, 2011 11:11 am

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

1) Price within 20 pips of the daily low (ClLo < 20) - that is OPPORTUNITY

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

Trading is GUESSING. If it wasn't, you wouldn't need a STOP LOSS.

THINK ABOUT IT!!


<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

MAXIMUM RISK = 2% * ACCOUNT BALANCE.

STOP LOSS = 10 PIPS. (INCLUDING SPREAD)

POSITION SIZE = RISK / STOP LOSS.

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

1) To trade like a RAT is to ALWAYS trade in ONE DIRECTION - either LONG or SHORT. Once you pick a "team", you can't switch.

2) The "within 20 pips of the daily high/low" is the BEST possible entry to get the maximum run BUT the RAT REVERSAL entry works ANYWHERE on the chart.

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->


"Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist." - H. Rearden

=============================================

1) Price within 20 pips of the daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

============================================

WHY ISN'T EVERYBODY DOING IT?

Most of you know I catch a lot of flak on my forums because SOME PEOPLE don't like the way I post.

One worn out argument that is used repeatedly is, "If this is so (simple, great, profitable, ), then why isn't everybody doing it?"

Simple answer is because SOYLENT GREEN is people!

We all know exercise is great, but how many actually exercise?

We all know smoking is bad, but how many do it anyway?

We all know which foods are bad for our health, but how many eat those foods?

We all know that we should save for our future and spend less than we earn but who does that?

The list is almost endless.

As long as there are people, there will always be some STUPID people and some smart people making STUPID decisions, where STUPID is defined as knowing better but acting otherwise.

Meanwhile, the RATS are still beating the Yale students.

============================================================================================

Are you trading AGAINST the H1 candle color?

Are you trading AGAINST the D1 candle color?

Are you trading AGAINST the W1 candle color?

Unless you know what the entry trigger is, how can you determine the timing of the entry?

============================================================================================

http://kreslik.com/forums/viewtopic.php ... start=3200

1) price within 20 pips of the daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

2) red candle closes

3) green candle closes - note the high price of the green candle.

4) enter long at the green candle's high price

5) STOP LOSS IS 10 PIPS

6) Take whatever profit you can.

7) If the rules do not mention it, then it is of no concern.

=============================================

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

===========================================================================================



"The technique is so simple that just several lessons (or a few pages of explanations) cover it all. Now what? Now the student has to practice, practice and practice again to understand what he had been taught. The teacher DOES know much more than the student, but his understanding can't be "passed", "transferred" or taught in any way -- not even by reading books."

============================================================================================

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oldmangeezer
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Postby oldmangeezer » Tue Oct 18, 2011 11:15 am

My question is this:

If you are a "Green Rat" team member and you are trading long wouldn't the candle color for 1 Hour be RED most of the time?

Or would you not trade the RAT Method using the candle color indicator?

oldmangeezer
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Postby oldmangeezer » Tue Oct 18, 2011 11:18 am

Image

oldmangeezer
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Postby oldmangeezer » Tue Oct 18, 2011 11:20 am

I should have quoted TRO in my first set of posts. These are TRO's not mine.
Sorry!

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bettlebox
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Postby bettlebox » Tue Oct 18, 2011 12:32 pm

so geezer can you explain me why TRO quoted this :-

"Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist." - H. Rearden"

Why would TRO go out his way and throw things into mix which are outside the rules. Ummmm?

Let me think maybe hes trying give us a clue.

Maybe i will stop trying to see price action and just the follow the rules blindly. :?
There are two forces acting upon us: Suffering pushes us forward from behind and pleasures entice us and pull us forward.

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