2009.09.10 DRAIN THE BANKS - LIKE A RAT

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Mon Nov 01, 2010 1:02 pm

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"Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

P64 HOW WE DECIDE (italics added)

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"Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist." - H. Rearden

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1) Price within 20 pips of the daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

2) Red candle closes

3) Green candle closes - note the high price of the green candle.

4) Enter long at the green candle's high price

5) STOP LOSS IS 10 PIPS

6) Take whatever profit you can.

7) If the rules do not mention it, then it is of no concern.


=============================================

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IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Mon Nov 01, 2010 1:48 pm

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Price within 20 pips of the daily low (ClLo <= 20) - that is OPPORTUNITY

Current price - current daily low is less than 20 pips.

========================= ====================

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue Nov 02, 2010 12:25 pm

Image

Price within 20 pips of the daily low (ClLo <= 20) - that is OPPORTUNITY

Current price - current daily low is less than 20 pips.

=============================================

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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tmanbone
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Postby tmanbone » Tue Nov 02, 2010 1:22 pm

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"The simplicity of the markets is it's greatest disguise"

T

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Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue Nov 02, 2010 2:41 pm

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=============================================

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

=============================================

"The technique is so simple that just several lessons (or a few pages of explanations) cover it all. Now what? Now the student has to practice, practice and practice again to understand what he had been taught. The teacher DOES know much more than the student, but his understanding can't be "passed", "transferred" or taught in any way -- not even by reading books."

=============================================

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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tmanbone
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Postby tmanbone » Wed Nov 03, 2010 3:10 am

TRO,

Will you explain how you put these #'s in the expectancy formula? The example is in post # 20. Thanks,

http://www.bigmiketrading.com/journals- ... one-2.html
"The simplicity of the markets is it's greatest disguise"



T

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Wed Nov 03, 2010 12:03 pm

Image

Price within 20 pips of the daily low (ClLo <= 20) - that is OPPORTUNITY

Current price - current daily low is less than 20 pips.

=============================================

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Wed Nov 03, 2010 1:19 pm

Image


=============================================

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

=============================================

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

User avatar
TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Thu Nov 04, 2010 12:23 pm

Image

Price within 20 pips of the daily low (ClLo <= 20) - that is OPPORTUNITY

Current price - current daily low is less than 20 pips.

=============================================

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

User avatar
TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Thu Nov 04, 2010 2:07 pm

Image.


=============================================

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

=============================================

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.


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