2009.09.10 DRAIN THE BANKS - LIKE A RAT

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frang0nve
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Postby frang0nve » Sat Feb 06, 2010 10:36 am

Hi Gangsta,

Did you restrict your chase according to this bias?:

TheRumpledOne wrote:3) The TRAINING WHEELS only signals LONG trades ABOVE the weekly open and SHORT trades BELOW the weekly above. This bias keeps beginning traders, as well as experienced traders, out of trouble.


Cheers

Francisco

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gangsta1
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Postby gangsta1 » Sat Feb 06, 2010 11:36 am

Hi Fran, Thanks for the reply.

No I do not follow the weekly as it was not stated in the original rules.

Does this help you? How about following the h1/d1 bias? Have you had much success with the Rat method?

I am currently juggling between rev8 and rev9 of DTB, trying to decide which one to opt for. I can get good results on rev8 trading non-breakout m15 candles with a 10 pip trigger.

However I would ideally like to master the rat method in order to keeo up to date with TRO and everyone else.

The main problem I seem to run into is getting caught in ranging periods.

frang0nve
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Postby frang0nve » Sat Feb 06, 2010 12:13 pm

Hi Gangsta1,

I'm quite satisfied with the 5 minutes Rat Trade Reversal strategy. Even without the weekly restriction and the imperfect idea that I was using... (See my first post in page 102 of this thread).

I suggest you to join the paltalk two percent club to get on the fly advice.

Cheers

Francisco

gangsta1
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Postby gangsta1 » Sat Feb 06, 2010 12:34 pm

What Take Profit do you use if you dont mind me asking?

I was thinking about aiming for my daily target on each trade. So for example if my target is 10 pips and I get stopped out twice (-20pips) then I would attempt to hit 30 pips on my next trade.

I am a member of the paltalk chat room but do not use it often as many traders there seem to be using different strategies so I get confused!

frang0nve
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Postby frang0nve » Sat Feb 06, 2010 12:47 pm

Hello Gangsta1,

I use more or less the take profit approach that you quoted from TRO in page 102:


I know the feeling.

What I do is protect ME from ME.

AT +5 pips, I will be ready to bail at +3 if price pulls back.

At +10 pips, I will enter a trailing stop of 4 or 5 pips.

**At +15, I will cancel the trailing stop and enter a hard stop at +10.

**Then I will move the hard stop up if price moves up.

At +25, I may move the hard stop up to +25 or to a price ending in 0 or 9.

Sometimes, I may exit 1/2 of my position at +20 to lock in a 1% gain.

The idea is to be CONSISTENT. You'll miss out sometimes, but you only need ONE big run and you are done for the day.

Remember, the daily goal is 2% or more and DO NOT OVER TRADE.


(sometimes I close 90% of the position when 10 pips are won and I let the remaining 10% open with SL at breakeven).

Perhaps I was lucky finding less losers than you because I can only trade part time.

I'm not yet a profitable trader, but TRO strategies are the winners, being the losers when I forget that I am A SCALPER, and I have to catch what I can instead of allowing a winner become a loser thinking that the trade will become profitable again.

Cheers

Francisco

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capsmart
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Some more statistics

Postby capsmart » Sat Feb 06, 2010 1:41 pm

Continuing my analysis that helps me understand better what I am trading I grouped the wick sizes (tales and wicks are the same for this case)

0-9 pips 12.3%
10-19 pips 14.8%
20-29 pips 17.9%
30-39 pips 13.4%
40-49 pips 10.2%
50-59 pips 9.0%
60-69 pips 5.7%
70-79 pips 4.0%
80-89 pips 3.3%
90-99 pips 2.0%
more than 100 pips 7.3%
100.0%
So from what we see there is a chance of 12,3% that we get a Daily candle with a wick or tale that is smaller than 10 pips. I all the other cases (87,7%) we will get bigger wicks. The most possible case is between 10 and 50 pip wicks.
So we know that there is cheese in the wicks and tales 87,7% of the time.
The question is how do we know that we are at the bottom (or top) so that we take advantage of this wick or tale?
γνῶθι σεαυτόν Know thyself

gangsta1
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Re: Some more statistics

Postby gangsta1 » Sat Feb 06, 2010 2:24 pm

capsmart wrote:So we know that there is cheese in the wicks and tales 87,7% of the time.
The question is how do we know that we are at the bottom (or top) so that we take advantage of this wick or tale?


Thats the MAJOR problem as far as I am concerned. We may be almost gaurenteed that price will move 10pips from the daily high/low BUT if we have a stop loss of 10 pips and we were stopped out 2 or more times from chasing the daily high/low then we are going to need a wick of 30 pips + to break even or profit some.

gangsta1
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Postby gangsta1 » Sat Feb 06, 2010 2:29 pm

frang0nve wrote:
I'm not yet a profitable trader, but TRO strategies are the winners, being the losers when I forget that I am A SCALPER, and I have to catch what I can instead of allowing a winner become a loser thinking that the trade will become profitable again.


The problem with taking what profit we can is that when we get a loss we have to take what we can multiple times to recover from the loss(es). Which means that each time we re-enter the market we are risking losing again thus having to take what we can even more times. Then the cycle continues, slowly draining our accounts (or maybe just mine!).

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capsmart
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Postby capsmart » Sat Feb 06, 2010 2:36 pm

gangsta
Of course there is no way to know in advance that you are at the daily low or high, but there are some things that you can observe.
First is the daily range. TRO has designed an indicator TRO_TRADE_LINES that shows the open of the day +/- the ATR.
So this is an area that price could reverse.
The same indicator shows the low/high of the week and the low/high of the previous day. This is another area.
And of course if we wait in a downtrend for the first green candle to close, mark the high of the green bar and enter long after the green candle closes.
The semaphores add an additional confirmation for a reversal.
One more thing. If price (like the last days) is in strong trends trying to trade reversals is more dangerous. In more "normal" days price will meander from high to low and in this case trading with the Daily and Weekly trend is safer.
γνῶθι σεαυτόν Know thyself

gangsta1
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Postby gangsta1 » Sat Feb 06, 2010 2:43 pm

capsmart wrote:gangsta
Of course there is no way to know in advance that you are at the daily low or high, but there are some things that you can observe.
First is the daily range. TRO has designed an indicator TRO_TRADE_LINES that shows the open of the day +/- the ATR.
So this is an area that price could reverse.
The same indicator shows the low/high of the week and the low/high of the previous day. This is another area.
And of course if we wait in a downtrend for the first green candle to close, mark the high of the green bar and enter long after the green candle closes.
The semaphores add an additional confirmation for a reversal.
One more thing. If price (like the last days) is in strong trends trying to trade reversals is more dangerous. In more "normal" days price will meander from high to low and in this case trading with the Daily and Weekly trend is safer.


Thanks for the info!

I am surprised that rev8 was updated as it seemed to be such a good system according to many and TRO himself. I use rev8 with a 10 pip trigger on non-breakout m15 candles with decent results. Infact, many of the trades I take are also triggered on rev9 as rat trades. Would be interesting to know why TRO changed the system.

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