2009.06.24 WHY 95% OF TRADERS LOSE PART III

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Horizon
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Postby Horizon » Fri Oct 16, 2009 12:35 pm

TheRumpledOne, I realise you don't write EA... do you ever write scripts or code in order to back test an ideas such as this one?

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Fri Oct 16, 2009 2:21 pm

I do statistical analysis.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Fri Oct 16, 2009 2:24 pm

Attention:

THIS THREAD IS NOT ABOUT SPECIFIC METHODS OR INDICATORS. Find another thread for those questions and comments.

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IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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Postby TheRumpledOne » Fri Oct 16, 2009 2:28 pm

Image

Animals in Translation: Using the Mysteries of Autism to Decode Animal Behavior
by Temple Grandin and Catherine Johnson

When highly verbal people get control of the audit process, they tend to make five critical mistakes:

* They write verbal auditing standards that are too subjective and vague, with requirements like "minimal use of electric prod" and "non-slip flooring." Individual inspectors have to figure out for themselves what "minimal use" means. A good audit checklist has objective standards that anyone can see have or have not been met.

* For some reason, highly verbal people have a tendency to measure inputs, such as maintenance schedules, employee training records, and equipment design problems, instead of outputs, which is how the animals are actually doing. A good animal welfare audit has to measure the animals, not the plant.

* Highly verbal people almost always want to make the audit way too complicated. A 100-item checklist doesn't work nearly as well as a 10-item checklist, and I can prove it.

* Verbal people drift into paper audits, in which they audit a plant's records instead of its animals. A good animal welfare audit has to audit the animals, not the paper and not the plant.

* Verbal people tend to lose sight of what's important and end up treating small problems the same way they treat big problems.

Page 268 - 269 Animals in Translation
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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Postby Kenyuki » Fri Oct 16, 2009 3:40 pm

TheRumpledOne wrote:Animals in Translation: Using the Mysteries of Autism to Decode Animal Behavior
by Temple Grandin and Catherine Johnson


:lol: This is a great excerpt TRO, thanks for sharing!

Ken.

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Postby TheRumpledOne » Fri Oct 16, 2009 4:28 pm

You're welcome, Ken.

Now, how do you see it applying to traders and trading?
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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Postby Kenyuki » Fri Oct 16, 2009 5:02 pm

TheRumpledOne wrote:Now, how do you see it applying to traders and trading?


Well let me give it a try:

- As this is a random game, we will need to rely on statistics to gain an edge

- Look at what is happening (TV screen = charts) and create / identify a pattern

- Statistics + Pattern = your trading edge

- Rinse and repeat

I feel that even my own summary was way too much than what the rats were doing :?:

Thanks,
Ken.

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Postby Horizon » Fri Oct 16, 2009 8:28 pm

I think it relates to the fact that we over think trading strategies and our lives. We want to believe that when the moon is aligned with Jupiter and... bla bla bla ... things will be fine and the forces at hand will make everything alright.

In the end it goes back to the fact that we can't predict the future. We need to focus on what we control not what we don't control and in trading, we basically control when we enter, exit, take profit and take / accept loses. But really there is no holy grail. discipline and determination and keeping it simple.

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Postby TheRumpledOne » Fri Oct 16, 2009 8:40 pm

Since your mind is your most valuable asset and your most valuable lever, you need to be careful what you put in it. Sometimes it is even more difficult to get rid of thoughts and ideas that are already in your mind than it is to learn something new - Pg 119 WHY WE WANT YOU TO BE RICH

THE ILLUSION OF CONTROL

"Individuals appear hard-wired to overattribute success to skill, and to underestimate the role of chance, when both are in fact present."

[Langer, E. J., The Illusion of Control, Journal of Personality and
Social Psychology 32 (2), 311-328 (1975)]
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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Postby TheRumpledOne » Fri Oct 16, 2009 8:45 pm

From ANIMALS IN TRANSLATION:


?That?s the big difference between animals and people, and also between autistic people and nonautistic people. Animals and autistic people don?t see their ideas of things; they see the actual things themselves. We see the details that make up the world, while normal people blur all those details together into their general concept of the world. We abstractify, and these abstractifications become our reality." - pg 30



"Our brains are wired to see connections and correlations, not coincidences and happenstance. Moreover, our brains are wired to believe that a correlation is also a cause." - pg 100
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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