2009.06.24 WHY 95% OF TRADERS LOSE PART III

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue Oct 06, 2009 5:20 am

I think it is in one of the mt4 motherlodes.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

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Postby pj9100 » Tue Oct 06, 2009 5:41 pm

TheRumpledOne wrote:I think it is in one of the mt4 motherlodes.
I tried to find it on your site but failed. Will appreciate if you provide the
download link for the Speedometer (close-open/time) indicator.
Thanks in advance.

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GU

Postby celtics2 » Fri Oct 09, 2009 1:06 am

Well I finally broke down and traded GU with Buy Zone + or - 5 at open and made $$. Last week when I tried it some of the H1 candles flew into the open not allowing me time to react. So ya miss a few. There are 24 H1 candles in a day. Once I started cashing in and playing with Company money my total grew with no problem.

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Postby noone22 » Mon Oct 12, 2009 12:00 pm

TheRumpledOne wrote:You don't even need a rat.
Use the Buy Zone on the H1 chart but only trade in one direction,
long or short until you make money


Couple of questions to TRO:

1) Is there any specific reason,
why to trade on H1 timeframe?

I cannot think of any, apart from
candles being longer on H1 as compared to M15.

2) Are there any reason(s),
why to trade only in one direction (long or short)?

Question valid in assumption, that
probabilities to trade in either direction are equal
(rat experiment cannot be taken as good example here,
because food placement has pre-determined greater
probability to be put at the left).

Why not to trade long and short directions at the same session?
Apart from overtrading, lost of concentration & overall confusion -
I cannot think of any other reasons.

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue Oct 13, 2009 12:21 am

1) That's the timeframe I used to run the statistics.

2) The rat ALWAYS turned left.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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Postby Shinobi-X » Tue Oct 13, 2009 1:54 am

noone22 wrote:
TheRumpledOne wrote:You don't even need a rat.
Use the Buy Zone on the H1 chart but only trade in one direction,
long or short until you make money


Couple of questions to TRO:

1) Is there any specific reason,
why to trade on H1 timeframe?

I cannot think of any, apart from
candles being longer on H1 as compared to M15.

2) Are there any reason(s),
why to trade only in one direction (long or short)?

Question valid in assumption, that
probabilities to trade in either direction are equal
(rat experiment cannot be taken as good example here,
because food placement has pre-determined greater
probability to be put at the left).

Why not to trade long and short directions at the same session?
Apart from overtrading, lost of concentration & overall confusion -
I cannot think of any other reasons.


1) there are several factors behind it:

a) because you can't go wrong with H1. with D1 you will surely see different candles with brokers using different time zone. if your broker uses London as their time base you'll see the start of the candle is 00:00 GMT, if your broker uses other european time zone you'll see different candlestick, if your broker uses New York as their time base you'll see 00:00 EST as the start of their D1 candlestick. however, H1 is always the same in every platform (might be 1 or 2 minutes ahead or behind but the difference is really minimum in terms of pips).

b) the quotes will differ from broker to broker. however, the start time of the bar is always the same with only minor differences like 1 to 2 minutes ahead or behind and 1 to 5 pips more or less.

2) because the risk of losing is minimized. in a 50:50 coin flip you'll end up with equal chance of losing or profiting. if you're trading blindly, you'll end up with the same chance (50:50). now, you only need an additional 1% to make a profit 51:49 and less 1% to end up losing 49:51. having additional % will bring more confidence to your trading. at some point along the trend (or chart), the probability will increase to one of the two sides (up or down). if the chance is higher to the upside and you trade to the downside you'll of course end up losing and vice versa. unless you have a scalper mentality (those who deal with less than M1 time frame), you better stay in one side during certain time because price move fast in those certain times. I'm not the best trader in the world nor in this forum, but personally, I don't like to trade when the chance of making money is slim to none. ask any trader whether a scalper or swing or whatever, and they'll agree with making money only when the probability is better.

hope this helps.


yesterday was great, I closed one trade that end up 24% in E/J. thanks to es/pip, MO, dragon33 for their great minds now I have more arsenal in my thoughts and understand the charts better. here's what i saw...
Attachments
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zl04.gif (14.24 KiB) Viewed 1118 times
The gap between reality and dream is called action.

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Postby MightyOne » Tue Oct 13, 2009 3:05 am

noone22 wrote:
TheRumpledOne wrote:You don't even need a rat.
Use the Buy Zone on the H1 chart but only trade in one direction,
long or short until you make money


Couple of questions to TRO:

1) Is there any specific reason,
why to trade on H1 timeframe?

I cannot think of any, apart from
candles being longer on H1 as compared to M15.

2) Are there any reason(s),
why to trade only in one direction (long or short)?

Question valid in assumption, that
probabilities to trade in either direction are equal
(rat experiment cannot be taken as good example here,
because food placement has pre-determined greater
probability to be put at the left).

Why not to trade long and short directions at the same session?
Apart from overtrading, lost of concentration & overall confusion -
I cannot think of any other reasons.


Don't be such a mouse :wink:

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue Oct 13, 2009 5:19 pm

It is funny, to me, that some traders here are still making things a lot more complex than necessary.

I guess it really is harder to UNLEARN the old than it is to learn something new.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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Postby Horizon » Fri Oct 16, 2009 12:32 pm

I really like this ideas. Just one question - the indicator suggest that you should go in this trade with a fixed limit and exit but the thread mentions a trailing stop.
Has anyone tried this in the long run? Could someone comment on what they believe is the best strategy (fixed limit or trailing stop) for something like the Buy Zone... I used to prefer fixed limit and stops but through back testing I have started to move towards trailing stops.. but I am still undecided. I do realise it depends on the strategy. What are your thoughts for this strategy?

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Postby Horizon » Fri Oct 16, 2009 12:34 pm

TheRumpledOne, I realise you don't write EA... do you ever write scripts or code in order to back test an ideas such as this one?

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