2009.04.04 WHY 95% OF TRADERS LOSE

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PTG
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Postby PTG » Tue Apr 07, 2009 7:30 am

rowdy wrote:
PTG wrote:Rowdy

History repeats itself.

Go and have a look at the EA-related discussion earlier on in the Never Lose Again thread on this site. I'm talking around December 7th or so, give or take a couple of days. That should deal with any questions.

I know what not to waste my time on: on EA's. They won't earn me ANY money, period.


With all due respect PTG, I respectfully disagree and here is why. You trade BZ by trying to type in the orders manually. The price moves before you can get your order in. So you start to use scripts and this solves the problem. Then you trade DTB and when you try to drag and drop when the indicator says OK to Go Long, the price moves before you can drag it in. Now you can always play the breakout, but an EA would be fast enough to get your trade in. My point is that there is absolutely no difference between manually trading and an EA as to the trading methodology. How many times have you entered a short trade by accident when you actually meant to enter a long? An EA eliminates these kinds of errors.

As for the thread you mentioned, I believe that msforex was somewhat misinterpreted. In reading the thread, it didnt appear to me that this person was necessarily trying to disprove the validity of the Buzzard indicator. msforex only displayed backtest results for the way msforex coded the idea. msforex may have coded it incorrectly. It is easy to do unless you CHECK your results thoroughly. msforex may have coded it correctly but doesnt understand how to trade it profitably. I would not dismiss EAs as evil or a "waste of time" just from this one thread.

I have to attend a regular job every day so I can only trade part time. This severly limits my options. I can only trade Forex Monday through Thursday nights. Thats it. For those of you who in the same situation I am sure you can relate. Is there any real substitute for live trading experience? No. I understand the value of real trading experience. However, given my limitations can I afford to trade an indicator for a year only to discover that I will only break even at best? Again, I am not suggesting that the indicator doesnt work, I am saying that I may not know how to trade it profitably. Backtesting will give me a clue as to whether I am moving in the right direction. Good backtesting results are absolutely no guarantee that I will do as well in the future, but at least I have some reason to go live with the demo account. I am not trying to "take a shortcut" but I dont have many good options.

I apologize if I have hijacked this thread. It was not my intention. I merely want the discretionary traders to understand my view as a strategy trader as a matter of concern and respect for all involved.

I am going on vacation Memorial Day week and I hope that I will finally be allowed to join in the Paltalk live trading. This would be a real treat for me.


Rowdy,

Thanks for your reply !

I understand your predicament. You have to be quick with order entry. That said, there are many situations where you can anticipate. I would encourage you to visit the Two Percent room to find out.

Note that I'm not suggesting you shouldn't do whatever you think is necessary. We all have to go down that road. All I'm saying is that I'm convinced that EAs are a waste of time, for me that is. Been there, done that. I just thought it might be useful information for you.

Hope to see you in the Two Percent club !

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rowdy
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Postby rowdy » Tue Apr 07, 2009 10:03 am

TheRumpledOne wrote:Rowdy:

Feel free to continue the discussion/debate here.

See you in the TWO PERCENT CLUB.


I very much appreciate the invite and I look forward to it.

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Postby bredin » Tue Apr 07, 2009 10:39 am

My experience to date is that an EA handling the entry is preferable for me as it stops my natural tendency to overtrhink, and means i dont miss an entry for a momentary distration (I have two very young kids) during the couple of hours a day that is available to me currently.

I only seem to lose wads when I try to get the EA to exit for me :)

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Postby shuaib » Tue Apr 07, 2009 11:06 am

PTG wrote:
rowdy wrote:
PTG wrote:Rowdy

History repeats itself.

Go and have a look at the EA-related discussion earlier on in the Never Lose Again thread on this site. I'm talking around December 7th or so, give or take a couple of days. That should deal with any questions.

I know what not to waste my time on: on EA's. They won't earn me ANY money, period.


With all due respect PTG, I respectfully disagree and here is why. You trade BZ by trying to type in the orders manually. The price moves before you can get your order in. So you start to use scripts and this solves the problem. Then you trade DTB and when you try to drag and drop when the indicator says OK to Go Long, the price moves before you can drag it in. Now you can always play the breakout, but an EA would be fast enough to get your trade in. My point is that there is absolutely no difference between manually trading and an EA as to the trading methodology. How many times have you entered a short trade by accident when you actually meant to enter a long? An EA eliminates these kinds of errors.

As for the thread you mentioned, I believe that msforex was somewhat misinterpreted. In reading the thread, it didnt appear to me that this person was necessarily trying to disprove the validity of the Buzzard indicator. msforex only displayed backtest results for the way msforex coded the idea. msforex may have coded it incorrectly. It is easy to do unless you CHECK your results thoroughly. msforex may have coded it correctly but doesnt understand how to trade it profitably. I would not dismiss EAs as evil or a "waste of time" just from this one thread.

I have to attend a regular job every day so I can only trade part time. This severly limits my options. I can only trade Forex Monday through Thursday nights. Thats it. For those of you who in the same situation I am sure you can relate. Is there any real substitute for live trading experience? No. I understand the value of real trading experience. However, given my limitations can I afford to trade an indicator for a year only to discover that I will only break even at best? Again, I am not suggesting that the indicator doesnt work, I am saying that I may not know how to trade it profitably. Backtesting will give me a clue as to whether I am moving in the right direction. Good backtesting results are absolutely no guarantee that I will do as well in the future, but at least I have some reason to go live with the demo account. I am not trying to "take a shortcut" but I dont have many good options.

I apologize if I have hijacked this thread. It was not my intention. I merely want the discretionary traders to understand my view as a strategy trader as a matter of concern and respect for all involved.

I am going on vacation Memorial Day week and I hope that I will finally be allowed to join in the Paltalk live trading. This would be a real treat for me.


Rowdy,

Thanks for your reply !

I understand your predicament. You have to be quick with order entry. That said, there are many situations where you can anticipate. I would encourage you to visit the Two Percent room to find out.

Note that I'm not suggesting you shouldn't do whatever you think is necessary. We all have to go down that road. All I'm saying is that I'm convinced that EAs are a waste of time, for me that is. Been there, done that. I just thought it might be useful information for you.

Hope to see you in the Two Percent club !
Hi pls am new in this forum how can i join two percent club
thanks

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PTG
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Postby PTG » Tue Apr 07, 2009 11:21 am

shuaib wrote:
PTG wrote:
rowdy wrote:
PTG wrote:Rowdy

History repeats itself.

Go and have a look at the EA-related discussion earlier on in the Never Lose Again thread on this site. I'm talking around December 7th or so, give or take a couple of days. That should deal with any questions.

I know what not to waste my time on: on EA's. They won't earn me ANY money, period.


With all due respect PTG, I respectfully disagree and here is why. You trade BZ by trying to type in the orders manually. The price moves before you can get your order in. So you start to use scripts and this solves the problem. Then you trade DTB and when you try to drag and drop when the indicator says OK to Go Long, the price moves before you can drag it in. Now you can always play the breakout, but an EA would be fast enough to get your trade in. My point is that there is absolutely no difference between manually trading and an EA as to the trading methodology. How many times have you entered a short trade by accident when you actually meant to enter a long? An EA eliminates these kinds of errors.

As for the thread you mentioned, I believe that msforex was somewhat misinterpreted. In reading the thread, it didnt appear to me that this person was necessarily trying to disprove the validity of the Buzzard indicator. msforex only displayed backtest results for the way msforex coded the idea. msforex may have coded it incorrectly. It is easy to do unless you CHECK your results thoroughly. msforex may have coded it correctly but doesnt understand how to trade it profitably. I would not dismiss EAs as evil or a "waste of time" just from this one thread.

I have to attend a regular job every day so I can only trade part time. This severly limits my options. I can only trade Forex Monday through Thursday nights. Thats it. For those of you who in the same situation I am sure you can relate. Is there any real substitute for live trading experience? No. I understand the value of real trading experience. However, given my limitations can I afford to trade an indicator for a year only to discover that I will only break even at best? Again, I am not suggesting that the indicator doesnt work, I am saying that I may not know how to trade it profitably. Backtesting will give me a clue as to whether I am moving in the right direction. Good backtesting results are absolutely no guarantee that I will do as well in the future, but at least I have some reason to go live with the demo account. I am not trying to "take a shortcut" but I dont have many good options.

I apologize if I have hijacked this thread. It was not my intention. I merely want the discretionary traders to understand my view as a strategy trader as a matter of concern and respect for all involved.

I am going on vacation Memorial Day week and I hope that I will finally be allowed to join in the Paltalk live trading. This would be a real treat for me.


Rowdy,

Thanks for your reply !

I understand your predicament. You have to be quick with order entry. That said, there are many situations where you can anticipate. I would encourage you to visit the Two Percent room to find out.

Note that I'm not suggesting you shouldn't do whatever you think is necessary. We all have to go down that road. All I'm saying is that I'm convinced that EAs are a waste of time, for me that is. Been there, done that. I just thought it might be useful information for you.

Hope to see you in the Two Percent club !
Hi pls am new in this forum how can i join two percent club
thanks


www.paltalk.com

search for Two Percent Club

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Postby Bigpipn » Tue Apr 07, 2009 2:40 pm

Don't feel stupid, if you have the DTB on 15m, >75% of the signals are against the trend and down right HORRIBLE. As long as you only take the signals w/ the trend you are fine.

winny
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Postby winny » Tue Apr 07, 2009 4:07 pm

Bigpipn wrote:Don't feel stupid, if you have the DTB on 15m, >75% of the signals are against the trend and down right HORRIBLE. As long as you only take the signals w/ the trend you are fine.


BigPip,

I personally have not found anything horrible yet,
but I do agree that it is much better to trade with the trend,
as I always said.

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Postby TheRumpledOne » Wed Apr 08, 2009 9:31 pm

Image

You do NOT have to lose.

You can DRAIN THE BANKS!!
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

winny
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Postby winny » Wed Apr 08, 2009 9:38 pm

TheRumpledOne wrote:Image

You do NOT have to lose.

You can DRAIN THE BANKS!!



Yes, it's easy money making,
I wonder if this would work with with Indices also.

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Thu Apr 09, 2009 2:05 am

Bigpipn wrote:Don't feel stupid, if you have the DTB on 15m, >75% of the signals are against the trend and down right HORRIBLE. As long as you only take the signals w/ the trend you are fine.


I am not sure what makes you say that.

What is the trend you refer to?

The place to short is at/near resistance.

The place to buy is at/near support.

That is where you get the "OK TO X" signal.

Notice it says "OK TO SHORT" or "OK TO BUY" and that is does not say "BUY" or "SHORT". There is a HUGE DIFFERENCE. You must apply some trading common sense.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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