USD70+K from ZERO in 16 weeks...

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pika
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Postby pika » Tue Feb 08, 2011 7:54 am

luminousneo,

Refering to the first day trade, SL = $24/$500 = 4.8% (rounded to 5%) equity risk, which is the equivalent of 2% margin. So in the case of max loss, it is actually 5% of real money. This is why I am more concerned with the equity risk and not the margin risk.

I see that the 4.8% is spread over 100 pips (equivalent to 0.48%/10 pips), hence 30 pips = $24 x 0.3 = $7.20, which is equal to $7.20/$500 = 1.44% profit taking a day. I think this way of MM is sound, as the compounding over time will increase the equity tremendously. I am personally more at ease with this level of risk/pip than 2%/10 pips.

It doesn't matter whether 2% is spread over 10pips or 40pips (it depends on the method and emotional complex). The important point is to achieve it consistently on an average basis. Even an average of 1% daily gain can make one very rich over time.

I can accept your logic and the method you have shared is also sound to me. Thank you for your effort to clear things up and willingness to help. :)

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Postby Nikitafx » Tue Feb 08, 2011 11:53 am

Looks like this thread ( or trade? ) is finally going the way its suppose to....profits profits profits for all..... :P P :smt041
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cwn6161
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Postby cwn6161 » Tue Feb 08, 2011 2:39 pm

luminousneo wrote:
cwn6161 wrote:I have not traded as much as others here, but I'm no fool. You show 500 trades, one each day. Thats 500 days. There are no losses on that sheet. If you are teaching people something, why would you ever show them results that are perfect?

I understand the compounding principles shown here. But that list of trades ends with a very different total if you have 75% or 50% wins.

I HATE seeing people baited with titles like "zero to 70k in 16 weeks" or trade listings that show no losses and 1 million dollars at the end. Thats not realistic for a new trader, and if you are experienced you should know that a new trader will focus on that million and not think that perhaps they are going to lose over and over again.

On another note - if you are risking 5% with a micro account, what are you risking on your standard account?


cwn6161, Let me reply ur negative comment one by one :

I have not traded as much as others here, but I'm no fool. You show 500 trades, one each day. Thats 500 days. There are no losses on that sheet. If you are teaching people something, why would you ever show them results that are perfect?

I show u 500 days of trade but NOT 500 trades. In one day I might have few trades and it NEVER PERFECT.... example in a day I might have 3 trades, 2 loss and 1 win but I will make sure the winning trade will cover the loss and get net profit of 30 pips... So meaning total trades in 500 days will be more than 500 trades... but usually I open only 1 trade daily if my TP is hit...I will stop n do other thing... So this is what I want NEW TRADERS to learn... better to minimise number of trade and not over trading... If u see the the table, on the first day the profit is only $ 7.20 That's the value u got for 30 pips. So for those who r greedy they will not happy if they only got such SMALL PROFIT. So they might look for bigger pips. They might get it or LOSE it. They don't realize how big is 30 pips in longer run... Isn't this a GOOD LESSON for NEW TRADERS???? The table is just the projection... but I have to follow it...


I understand the compounding principles shown here. But that list of trades ends with a very different total if you have 75% or 50% wins.

When u decide to trade FOREX u also need to understand the risk u might get. Losing is part of the game.... and I guess all business do have risks... In business we must get profit and cover the capital... but each day don't expect customer will always buy from ur shop...but we try to get more customer...its life. As I said the table is just the projection... it might hit ur SL today...or tomorrow...but u might have profit the rest...so meaning instead of 500 days u ur target maybe reached in 600 days or 1000 days....but again it still a good investment....


I HATE seeing people baited with titles like "zero to 70k in 16 weeks" or trade listings that show no losses and 1 million dollars at the end. Thats not realistic for a new trader, and if you are experienced you should know that a new trader will focus on that million and not think that perhaps they are going to lose over and over again.

You HATE it because I guess u HATE TO KNOW HOW LOGIC IT IS... but maybe not many realize it... When u see this catchy heading its attract ur attention...but please TAKE UR TIME AND READ...and try to UNDERSTAND it... If u always jump to conclusion u will always get caught by this catchy heading... this attitude is not good for a trader...the best thing is to try and discover the truth urself... I really think u didnt understand what it is all about... test on demo and show me the result...then we will talk....I saw a heading in newspaper...ALIEN INVADING THE WORLD...oppps its Will Smith's new movie... PLEASE READ hehehe

On another note - if you are risking 5% with a micro account, what are you risking on your standard account?

Hmmm... I'm not sure about ur understanding in FOREX... u can open micro account as low as $25 but for me with such amount u can only open 1 micro lot... so in my table I put in USD 500 as deposit so I can risk 2% (NOT 5%) of my account... So how about standard account??? For me don't dream to open standard account if u have less than USD20K but I prefer USD50K to start with standard account. Another lesson for NEW trader...The risk will always the same... not more than 3%....


Hope this will explain and make u happy...

8)


I mistyped the 5%, I meant to say 2%. My apologies.

If you included half of the things you said here in your post with the long list to 1 million, THAT would have been a good lesson for new traders. That's why I called the post out.

It's one thing to say [highlight=red]"LOOK AT ALL THE MONEY YOU CAN MAKE[/highlight]" and another to add a few lines that say [highlight=red]"this is what I am shooting for. If you're new, you'll most likely lose. Don't expect this right away, but try to make it the end goal."[/highlight]

I understand the things you are talking about, I'm looking out for those who may not.

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luminousneo
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Postby luminousneo » Tue Feb 08, 2011 5:33 pm

cwn6161 wrote:I mistyped the 5%, I meant to say 2%. My apologies.

If you included half of the things you said here in your post with the long list to 1 million, THAT would have been a good lesson for new traders. That's why I called the post out.

It's one thing to say [highlight=red]"LOOK AT ALL THE MONEY YOU CAN MAKE[/highlight]" and another to add a few lines that say [highlight=red]"this is what I am shooting for. If you're new, you'll most likely lose. Don't expect this right away, but try to make it the end goal."[/highlight]

I understand the things you are talking about, I'm looking out for those who may not.


No worries... I get ur point... but for me its a learning process...sharing for 5 years now teach me a lot... the most difficult part is to make them learn... "set ur SL..", "dont be greedy...","follow the rules..." all are simple quotes that u expect them to understand and apply in their trading...but I found members tend to ignore it even they actually understand the consequences...I dont think straight forward message will give a positive result as I always said HUMAN NATURE is always hard to tackle..


For my thread, I do expect this will happen but never mind... lets all the negative comment posted...lets all irrelevant images posted...I will keep explaining...until members realize what is it all about... keep in touch :P
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luminousneo
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Postby luminousneo » Wed Feb 09, 2011 5:42 pm

I believe all systems and indicators work. It depends on how you use it. Some traders like to make trading complicated but simple is better... no need fancy indicators... For me the most important thing in Forex is choosing a good ENTRY. Before I proceed lets look at the following charts :


14 SMA

Image


21 SMA

Image


83 SMA

Image


200 SMA

Image


The basic rule of using SMA is simple, BUY / LONG when price is above SMA and SELL / SHORT when price below SMA. Entry either straight away when price cross SMA or when next candle open above SMA to BUY or next candle open below SMA to SELL.


Fibonacci Retracement


Image


Actually I don't really know how to construct Fibonacci :P Traders tend to have different way of constructing it. I usually draw from LL to HH or HH to LL. You can see how price move from one level to another level and traders usually take advantage from this movement.


Trendline

Image


Some traders use trendline to look for breakout...again actually there are so many ways to construct it


Those are few indicators used by traders. As I said earlier its work... but some traders complaints there are so many false signal when you use these indicators...they are looking for a perfect system and they even add few indicators in their chart just to filter false signal...Too many indicators will make you missed some golden opportunities and I don't think this can help to filter false signal... Its the art of Forex... there is no right or false because Forex is UNPREDICTABLE...

You just need to be smart... the key is to choose only GOOD entry... How??? Look at the following charts ;


Image

Image

Image


Explanation:
The GREEN short horizontal line is the SL for BUY entries while the RED short horizontal line is the SL for SELL entries. The BLUE circle show you the trade with GOOD ENTRY.


Image


Explanation:
The GREEN short horizontal line is the SL for BUY entries while the RED short horizontal line is the SL for SELL entries. The GREEN circle is the entry for BUY and RED circle is the entry for SELL. The numbers in RED is the SL while numbers in GREEN is the maximum pips you might get from that trade.


Image


Explanation:
The ORANGE circle shows you how I construct Fibo. The the RED short horizontal line is the SL for both BUY / SELL entries. The GREEN circle is the entry for BUY and RED circle is the entry for SELL. The numbers in RED is the SL while numbers in BLUE is the maximum pips you might get from that trade.


Image

Explanation:
The ORANGE circle shows you how I construct Trendline. You can see how price broke my trendlines...


GOOD ENTRY for me is all entries with TIGHT SL. I found out this strategy together with my money management table work well. Just to remind u my TP is only 30 pips daily and my maximum SL is -100 pips. My maximum pips will never hit because I choose only good entries and taking only small pips even the system itself actually give more pips.. All the charts above is still fresh...it was taken a few hours ago... I would love to see your questions... see u soon...
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Postby jarnapal » Wed Feb 09, 2011 6:30 pm

so you start from basics 101 ? or you just try to show your enthusiasm for teaching ?

pika
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Postby pika » Wed Feb 09, 2011 11:18 pm

luminousneo,

I can see the effort you made to illustrate with the charts, however, it is all too easy to spot the great entries and even where the daily high/low was on hindsight. May I make a suggestion and you see if you are interested with the approach.

1) Post a chart that you think a setup is in the making.
2) Post a chart when an entry has been made.
3) Post a chart after stop loss or profit taking.

It is ok even if the trade is a loss, as long as we can understand why it was taken. All too often we only see successful examples by gurus and not failed trades. In this way, we can understand the method and over time the success will speak for itself.

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Postby luminousneo » Thu Feb 10, 2011 12:01 am

jarnapal wrote:so you start from basics 101 ? or you just try to show your enthusiasm for teaching ?


Watch and learn... try to understand the concept first...not straight away looking for system....if u cant understand the concept I personally think u will get caught one day....ask ur self these questions: "Is your system profitable ???" , "Can u get 20-30 pips daily?" If the answer is YES, so stick with it...
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Postby Nikitafx » Thu Feb 10, 2011 3:03 am

u wanted charts u got charts,........stop complaining.

Follow the thread and let the person who started this thread to take us through what he has to say. Kreslik.com nor this thread does not belong to a select few to fast forward or rewind as they like.

If the part you interested in has not appeared then u wait until the others are done with the more basic stuff.......

bunch of spoiled rotten kids would know how to behave better.....
Trading is a science as much as it is an art.



Its Not Nuclear Science.



I am an Non-certified Currency Analyst / Trader

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luminousneo
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Postby luminousneo » Thu Feb 10, 2011 7:29 am

pika wrote:luminousneo,

I can see the effort you made to illustrate with the charts, however, it is all too easy to spot the great entries and even where the daily high/low was on hindsight. May I make a suggestion and you see if you are interested with the approach.

1) Post a chart that you think a setup is in the making.
2) Post a chart when an entry has been made.
3) Post a chart after stop loss or profit taking.

It is ok even if the trade is a loss, as long as we can understand why it was taken. All too often we only see successful examples by gurus and not failed trades. In this way, we can understand the method and over time the success will speak for itself.



Thanks for ur suggestion but I'm not talking about my system yet. The charts show how to trade using a few indicators, most important just ONE indicator for each chart... I wanna prove that even simple systems work...

The charts actually show WINNING and LOSING trades. Not all will give u profit...The profit I stated on the chart is the MAXIMUM profit u PROBABLY will get. U might get it or not...

Ok, lets look at SMA 14, 21 and 83 chart. I just plot SL for each entries and ask members to look at these entries, try to calculate how much u will get. How to setup an entry? I already explain it on my previous trade, its either when the price straight away cross SMA for BUY / SELL or when the next candle open above SMA for BUY or open below SMA to SELL. You can see the examples on 200 SMA. Lets go back to 14, 21 and 83 SMA. What if u take all trades in 14 SMA? Will all trades give u profit? I'm sure u will get more losses than win because we only take 30 pips from each trade. Some entries will hit ur SL before u get ur TP. The BLUE circle shows u good ENTRY because it has tight SL.

Lets look 200 SMA. The circle show the entry for each trade (enter when next candle open above SMA for BUY or open below SMA for SELL).

SCENARIO 1:

The 1st entry SL is -37 pips and the maximum pips you can get is +254 pips but u only need 30 pips. Actually there are 2 possibilities here either hit SL and hit TP. I never know its going to hit my TP. What I know is I enter per good entry. Let say it hit my SL then I can open another trade with another tight SL. Since my maximum SL is -100 pips, so I have another -63 pips before I loss 5-10% of my account. Look at 2nd trade. SL is -162 pips. Its twice bigger than what I can afford to lose. Actually I can get profit from this trade because it dropped and never hit the SL....BUT what if it goes against my trade n hit my SL...my total loss will be -199 pips...and I will lose more than 10% of my account...If u took that 2nd trade I guess that suicide...Why??? Because if u enter the 3rd trade u still cannot cover ur previous loss as it can only give u maximum +52 pips.


SCENARIO 2:

Take 1st and 3rd trade and get only 30 pips from each trade. If both my SL hit I will only lose -61 pips and if my TP hit I will get +60 pips. Why I didn't take 2nd trade??? Because I can't afford losing -162 pips even it can give me more than 30 pips...as I don't have the ability to see future so I better skip... There are 3 soldiers ready to attack u and u have one bullet left, what should u do?? I advise u to run coz even u can shoot one of them the other 2 soldiers may attack u... :P So why I take only 30 pips as the market can give more??? Who know it going to give that big??? If I know trading will be easier lol ... I do know some system will give more than 30 pips and even hundreds of pips but we never know when... taking 30 pips from 254 pips... WHATS THE PROBABILITY FOR THAT?


Lets look on Fibo...

The 1st trade SL is -32 pips and maximum pips u may get is +28 pips.
The 2nd trade SL is -12 pips and maximum pips u may get is +29 pips.
My TP is 30 pips so from the above trade which one will hit first? TP or SL? Both are loosing trade and I will lose total of -44 pips. But I might get net 30 pips if I could get 74 pips from 3rd trade and I guess I could coz market moves for 270 pips... but again we never know....



"All too often we only see successful examples by gurus and not failed trades."

The above statement is totally wrong. I never shows only successful trades... there r so many entries...but not all good...so I choose only trade which I can afford to loss... look at those with blue circle...those are good entries but not all will give profit... but if I lose, the chance for me to recover is high coz I lost less...

It just like u r buying a car from someone for 20K and wanna sell it for 40k but unfortunately no one want to buy it...so u will lose 20k... u better buy a car worth 1k and sell it for 5k...at least if someone buy it u will get 4k but if no one buying u will only lose 1k.....

That is why I want traders to learn and discover themselves... but I guess not many interested to do that...when u experience it u will learn more....
Last edited by luminousneo on Thu Feb 10, 2011 12:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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