pika wrote:luminousneo,
I can see the effort you made to illustrate with the charts, however, it is all too easy to spot the great entries and even where the daily high/low was on hindsight. May I make a suggestion and you see if you are interested with the approach.
1) Post a chart that you think a setup is in the making.
2) Post a chart when an entry has been made.
3) Post a chart after stop loss or profit taking.
It is ok even if the trade is a loss, as long as we can understand why it was taken. All too often we only see successful examples by gurus and not failed trades. In this way, we can understand the method and over time the success will speak for itself.
Thanks for ur suggestion but I'm not talking about my system yet. The charts show how to trade using a few indicators, most important just ONE indicator for each chart... I wanna prove that even simple systems work...
The charts actually show WINNING and LOSING trades. Not all will give u profit...The profit I stated on the chart is the MAXIMUM profit u PROBABLY will get. U might get it or not...
Ok, lets look at SMA 14, 21 and 83 chart. I just plot SL for each entries and ask members to look at these entries, try to calculate how much u will get. How to setup an entry? I already explain it on my previous trade, its either when the price straight away cross SMA for BUY / SELL or when the next candle open above SMA for BUY or open below SMA to SELL. You can see the examples on 200 SMA. Lets go back to 14, 21 and 83 SMA. What if u take all trades in 14 SMA? Will all trades give u profit? I'm sure u will get more losses than win because we only take 30 pips from each trade. Some entries will hit ur SL before u get ur TP. The BLUE circle shows u good ENTRY because it has tight SL.
Lets look 200 SMA. The circle show the entry for each trade (enter when next candle open above SMA for BUY or open below SMA for SELL).
SCENARIO 1:
The 1st entry SL is -37 pips and the maximum pips you can get is +254 pips but u only need 30 pips. Actually there are 2 possibilities here either hit SL and hit TP. I never know its going to hit my TP. What I know is I enter per good entry. Let say it hit my SL then I can open another trade with another tight SL. Since my maximum SL is -100 pips, so I have another -63 pips before I loss 5-10% of my account. Look at 2nd trade. SL is -162 pips. Its twice bigger than what I can afford to lose. Actually I can get profit from this trade because it dropped and never hit the SL....BUT what if it goes against my trade n hit my SL...my total loss will be -199 pips...and I will lose more than 10% of my account...If u took that 2nd trade I guess that suicide...Why??? Because if u enter the 3rd trade u still cannot cover ur previous loss as it can only give u maximum +52 pips.
SCENARIO 2:
Take 1st and 3rd trade and get only 30 pips from each trade. If both my SL hit I will only lose -61 pips and if my TP hit I will get +60 pips. Why I didn't take 2nd trade??? Because I can't afford losing -162 pips even it can give me more than 30 pips...as I don't have the ability to see future so I better skip... There are 3 soldiers ready to attack u and u have one bullet left, what should u do?? I advise u to run coz even u can shoot one of them the other 2 soldiers may attack u...

So why I take only 30 pips as the market can give more??? Who know it going to give that big??? If I know trading will be easier lol ... I do know some system will give more than 30 pips and even hundreds of pips but we never know when... taking 30 pips from 254 pips... WHATS THE PROBABILITY FOR THAT?
Lets look on Fibo...
The 1st trade SL is -32 pips and maximum pips u may get is +28 pips.
The 2nd trade SL is -12 pips and maximum pips u may get is +29 pips.
My TP is 30 pips so from the above trade which one will hit first? TP or SL? Both are loosing trade and I will lose total of -44 pips. But I might get net 30 pips if I could get 74 pips from 3rd trade and I guess I could coz market moves for 270 pips... but again we never know....
"All too often we only see successful examples by gurus and not failed trades."
The above statement is totally wrong. I never shows only successful trades... there r so many entries...but not all good...so I choose only trade which I can afford to loss... look at those with blue circle...those are good entries but not all will give profit... but if I lose, the chance for me to recover is high coz I lost less...
It just like u r buying a car from someone for 20K and wanna sell it for 40k but unfortunately no one want to buy it...so u will lose 20k... u better buy a car worth 1k and sell it for 5k...at least if someone buy it u will get 4k but if no one buying u will only lose 1k.....
That is why I want traders to learn and discover themselves... but I guess not many interested to do that...when u experience it u will learn more....