"Price movement is the key"

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newschool
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"Price movement is the key"

Postby newschool » Sun Feb 14, 2010 6:09 pm

This confirms what I think about EAs.


I am primarily a discretionary trader and most of the time I trade with discretionary systems based on chart patterns. I do not use any indicators or standard analytical tools.


In my trading I like to keep things as simple as possible because my six years of live trading showed me that this is the best approach. I became interested in automated trading at the end of 2006 when I saw the Automated Trading Championship organized by Metaqoutes.


One of my successful EAs won fourth place at the Metaquotes Automated Trading Championship in 2007. In the beginning I started to create the automated trading systems based on indicators and standard analytical tools, but I learned that they don't have prospects, they're not suitable for constantly changing market conditions. I realized that the most resilient systems are those based on chart patterns because they respond well to the constantly changing forex market, so for the last year I have been creating systems based on that approach.



Drazen Ziskovic, Croatia
http://www.forex-robot-world-cup.com/

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FRWC and EAs

Postby Patch » Sun Feb 14, 2010 6:52 pm

Hi newschool

Who said what above? Could you please list the poster, site, thread and date/time?

Below is the two month live trading results of the recent "Forex Robot World Championship" that just concluded. Each live trader started with a $1000 account. The First Place Winner, Drazen Ziskovic from Crotia, received $100,000 USD. Second Place, Leslee Vernon Gouws from South Africa, received $30,000. I like the green graph of the second place winner Leslee.

Some men and women are able to develop profitable EA systems, some not, and some don't want to anyway. I personally believe the buyzone is the perfect strategy for an autotrade EA in MT4. Done properly, I believe you can be green, red or purple (ie green&red).

Patch
Dreaming of the BuyZone
In VA
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ENOUGH being a Yalie for me Back to the Sea. "What i can lose, i can win" "YES YOU CAN" - dragon33 -"Pick one method and one pair and stick with them until you master it. "The choice is yours - success or failure." TRO

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Postby tking » Sun Feb 14, 2010 8:40 pm

It was by Drazen. I found it here.

http://www.forex-robot-world-cup.com/

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Re: FRWC and EAs

Postby forexbob » Mon Feb 15, 2010 3:42 pm

Patch wrote: Done properly, I believe you can be green, red or purple (ie green&red).

Patch
Dreaming of the BuyZone
In VA


:-) maybe when breeding of a red rat and a green rat , we get ordanary brown rats.

I just do ok manual trading, but being a programmer the EA always has some interest. and yes i think at least you can write helpfull scripts to place orders or execute your exit strategy. maybe even longrun profitable fully automatic.(STILL beaten by an excellent manual trader)

The second contestant , looks to have a very consistent EA. But i looked to all his trades and it seems to consist of 2 methods, from which the second method did not get any loss in the two months traded (tp=12;sl=210) When the SL was hit (which finally will happen) it would have given a 45% drawdown.
Something you certainly do not want. Mapped the trades against tickdata, and no hidden sl of the EA went in, so the sl of 210 is real.

So what i at least can say is that their trading period of 2 months was way too short for hopping 2 conclusions.

and for a contest as these you can write an EA for getting the price money or go bust.
where you in real live want something consistant slowly compounding to the base.

and now these get hyped, and they are going to sell them for $999
will not post the link, because i think it is not worth my (or somebody elses) money.
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Postby Patch » Mon Feb 15, 2010 3:55 pm

forexbob

Great work, how were you able to get the information about his tp and sl? Your findings give a much more complete picture of what is really going on and there are many "no loss" autotraders that carry big sl's that blow up and drain accounts big time when the big trend takes off and just keep on going.

Thanks

Patch
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Postby forexbob » Mon Feb 15, 2010 4:49 pm

Patch wrote:forexbob

Great work, how were you able to get the information about his tp and sl? Your findings give a much more complete picture of what is really going on and there are many "no loss" autotraders that carry big sl's that blow up and drain accounts big time when the big trend takes off and just keep on going.

Thanks

Patch


Patch,

when you go to competition results on that website and then further click on the graph, you can see all trades.

for example
http://www.forex-robot-world-cup.com/re ... me=HiRIDER

i just copy pasted the details and put it in an excell sheet

first you see nothing; you notice that many trades are fast after each other
looks like just a big order split in 10 or so. (but it doesn't look like thats for
closing half earlier or something like that)
then i subtracted price and tp / sl and ended up with columns with tp=7 or 12 and sl=210 or 105(i think, just writing this without referring)

it then looked like 2 methods , adding autofilter in excell to look further (1. tp7 sl105 going both directions giving losses and almost not profitable during the 2 months ; 2. tp12 sl210 with no losses during the 2 monts. maybe it can be optimized (the exit strategy i mean)

the first method was run with lower risk then the second method.

in principle the EA could have an internal tighter SL , but as you have the date/time of the trades you can map them over tickdata, and see some high draw down up to 180 (nothing kicking in) the 210 not hit and finally turned into profit. with a daily range of 150 on eurusd it has lots of room.
But well maybe with a sl of 50 it is still profitable and not hammering with huge drawdowns. time will tell. maybe i look to it later when the EA crosses my path
I am not going to spend money on it.

i only looked at hirider in detail.
saw already the plimus sales page (at $999) when i was searching something on the net.
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Postby newschool » Mon Feb 15, 2010 9:19 pm

nice analysis forexbob, you really do have a logical mind.

This confirms what I see anywhere with commercial EAs, enormous SL compared to the profits each trade is closed. So yes for few weeks or even months your account has a nice 45 degrees equity curve, but the thing is, in the background you are accumulating trades with MAJOR drawdown that once they hit the margin, will bring your account to 0 in one shot.

Thats why I liked the first equity curve (Drazen's), its absolutely not straight, so you can guess it is indeed a real method with an edge.

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Postby Patch » Mon Feb 15, 2010 9:24 pm

forexbob

Very cool method of discovery. I am going to save this for future investigations. $999 is way out of my interest level right now.

Have you by any chance taken an excel look a the 19 day trade results of The Fusion-V 1.1a Robot ( http://www.TheFRWC.com ) ?

At the bottom of the statement is listed no open trades.

Thanks

Patch
ENOUGH being a Yalie for me Back to the Sea. "What i can lose, i can win" "YES YOU CAN" - dragon33 -"Pick one method and one pair and stick with them until you master it. "The choice is yours - success or failure." TRO

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Postby Patch » Mon Feb 15, 2010 9:27 pm

newschool

I just read your post above about the Drazen EA and I am learning a lot about things to look for.

Patch
ENOUGH being a Yalie for me Back to the Sea. "What i can lose, i can win" "YES YOU CAN" - dragon33 -"Pick one method and one pair and stick with them until you master it. "The choice is yours - success or failure." TRO

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Postby forexbob » Mon Feb 15, 2010 9:43 pm

newschool wrote:nice analysis forexbob, you really do have a logical mind.



thanks newschool, been a programmer all my live, that is from even before the era of pc's (1977)
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