newscalper wrote:Doji, hehe, sorry to be terse once again but why be SO cryptic if all you're talking about again is a retest? We all know it, we all see it. We've all shown charts showing it.
People would get results around here a lot quicker if there was a bit less of the mysticism.
And personally again and again I'm getting crushed trading it. Because it always boils down to which illusion you are trading.
What do I mean by which illusion? You guys are going on candle bodies and not price extremes. Extremes exist on all timeframe charts. Bodies do not.
Shall I repeat that: bodies do not.
Place your bias based on the 3 hour chart or some different brokers 4 hour chart and many times it will be totally different because the candles are not closing the same. What do you think 3xcc is about? It's not just about seeing momentum, it's to get around time-shifts because of different broker times. There is no magic line on the 4 hour chart where price turns on the 15 every time sorry guys. Have you never read 'Fooled by Randomness'?
If all you're showing is higher highs higher lows etc, nothing new under the sun. If you're showing something else, please explain. Ta.
I wouldn't say he is being cryptic, obviously he will come and post a response i am sure, but i just wanted to say this again.
At least from my experience, i firmly believe that it just is time on the charts that allows a person to feel it and see it all.
It is perception in a way i guess, maybe a little feel involved as well.
I look at the chart and i see what the other traders are doing, where they are in a position and where their stops are. I then either trade to zero them out or i wait and then take their stops and fade the move that takes their stops.
The big boys need liquidity in order to get their positions in the market. So they move the market to where there will be liquidity (zero line, s/d or stops).
This happens on all time frames, and you could just trade a m1 chart and look at nothing else; however, you would make a lot more trades and have a lot more losers.
SO
You trade a small time frame based on larger time frames. If you get a great looking m15 momo long trade but it is back into a large down h4 momo, then odds are not as good if say the other larger frames were also saying the same as your entry chart.
Having said all of that. At least for me, things change in an instant. i can be long biased but only end up trading short at times.
I really do not know how to explain it other than looking at the chart and really trying to feel the other traders and what they are doing. Find where they are positioned and where their stops are. Then find where other traders who are not in the market yet, and feel where they get in and get trapped and fade them.
Try and think like a market maker and you are executing huge order trades, and you do not want to move the market too much on your entry ( to an extent). The only way to do this is to trade where the liquidity is.
There is no 100% method, it may be out there but i do not have it, on Friday i made 45 trades and had 10-12 losers or BE ( across 3 diff markets).
That was more than usual, but i will trade what i see, and at times if i see a trade in 6e that i can get 5ish ticks i will take that all day long. On the es i will take trades that have a 3 tick target, other trades will have a 20-30 tick target. if the range becomes small i trade the traders in that small range, if the range expands i trade the traders in the larger range.
That may be a better way to say it, don't trade the chart, trade the other traders.
It is like MO has said before, poker and trading go hand in hand. When you play poker you are not always playing your cards, but you are playing the other people at the table based on their actions.
Same thing in trading.