bakedbeans' learning journal

[bb01100100]

My trading today was much better, with several good trades.

I've finished net 2 pts up, recovering from two stop-outs (one of which had 2 ticks of slippage as a sell order sprayed into the market). I was slow in a couple of cases to exit (as opposed to being stubborn) which lost me a tick or two.

2023-07-21-ES-fills.jpg (213.44 KiB) Viewed 1340 times

Trade 6 was where the sell order sprayed in, stopped me out. In retrospect I should have taken the 3-4 ticks of profit available at the range high and re-assessed. Also, and more importantly - I was thinking of it pushing up at 3PM NY and moving towards that upper trend line; but that idea was incorrect.

Trade 7 was a poor trade - I saw the rejection and then the dojis and thought that this might be the low, so sat it out. What I missed was seeing that the big red candle below the #6 was tested and rejected - I had the opportunity to get out for a scratch. My future self would also see that as a short opportunity.

My last two trades were interesting - for trade #8 I saw price pushing up, so got in on a retrace, target was pre-set at what I thought would be a stall point, but price just exploded up - got my 5 ticks though.

Trade 9 was difficult to take (clearly I need to work on trading with the trend) but it hit my zline test target.

Some session stats:

• 55% profitable trades
• Average winner 1.31pts
• Average loser 1.09 pts
• Largest losing trade 2.09 pts
• Largest winner 2.91pts

Looking at my entries and what happened next I can see that I'm trying to fade the extremes and looking for micro-swings, but I might be better off taking smaller bites, e.g. banking 5 ticks instead of shooting for 12 and sitting through 4-7 ticks offside. I've avoided such small targets previously because I'm about 1-2 seconds of latency away from the exchange so I can't play the fast game. I suppose that's what limit exits are for.

Something I'll do in between other jobs today is check how frequently ES ranges between 2:30 and 3pm.. it does seem to be a time of day where I get drawn in an churned.

This weekend's mission: go over Don's reading list recommendations.

[bb01100100]

I looked at the ES PM session over the last month or so..

2023-07-21-ES--pre-post-3pm-range-cropped.jpg (180.78 KiB) Viewed 1322 times

Image has been cropped to meet Kreslik file size limitations and doesn't show all the days I looked at; apologies if it's difficult to read. The idea was to zoom out and see the shape of the price action.

The image shows the 1pm to 3:30 pm NY price action.

• Gray line is 1pm and acts as a sort of separator
• Dotted green line is 2pm when I start
• Purple line is 3pm when I've often noticed an uptick in activity

Every day is different and there is no substantial change after 3pm, it does show somewhat that it's often not a trending time - the average difference in price between 2pm and 3pm is about 4.5 points.
If I remove the largest trending day in the data sample (16pts) then the average difference in open price between 2pm and 3pm is 3.5 points.

Useful? In so much as it helps set an expectation not to hold out for 20 points during that time of day; at least in the small sample I looked at.

[bb01100100]

Managed an early Asian session scalp on 6J, netting the equivalent of another ES point.

2023-07-21-6J-scalp-1.jpg (91.87 KiB) Viewed 1318 times

The trade was longing the range of the up-sloping channel. I had a larger target in mind but thought it better to bank prior to the main Asia stock exchanges opening at 10am my time.

I have to keep reminding myself that this chart shows yen strength, not dollar strength.. it's backwards to how I prefer to think about it.

[chappy]

When I get bored , I listen to Day Trading Radio ..trend- line trader who trades the ES..Free Site ..

[kiwiarian]

When I get bored , I listen to Day Trading Radio ..trend- line trader who trades the ES..Free Site ..

Did you have the link for it chappy?

[bb01100100]

Today's session went well, made 6 trades, finishing up 7.98pts net:

• Spent time looking at the market and what has been going on prior to me starting
• Kept my stops close / sensible
• Traded what I saw
• Came up with an idea, which I then took advantage of later on

2023-07-22-ES-fills.jpg (123.38 KiB) Viewed 1241 times

From my fills:

• Traded the break of the indecision candle after seeing price wouldn't close higher; exited when it stalled
• Traded short again after retrace to prior swing low, but scratched the trade after it looked as though a pinbar candle was forming; made 1 tick instead of the 5 I was after
• Shorted again after seeing a zline test; held on to that trade since I saw rejection several times; exited after it bounced off the lows
• Went long after I saw price pull back into the green momentum candle but scratched it since it was fighting; avoided a 1.5pt drawdown
• Red ellipsis is where I wanted to enter but was concerned I was getting in too soon.
• Price stalled close to the swing high and I entered with a tight stop - stopped out, but still interested in getting short.
• Final trade is the most interesting.. After all the rejection in that congestion zone, price ground higher but I noticed that it failed to close above the last swing high (I was thinking of that swing high at the second lowest blue line on my chart as a validated high); I thought there was a good chance price would return to that zone and test it again; maybe break through it to find liquidity. So I shorted and moved my stop down as price pushed lower. I was very happy to be sitting on 4.5 points of profit, so I exited after price stalled again after making that fake green pinbar.

Reading through Don's Patterns & Observations thread yesterday got me thinking more concretely about my "if then else" logic, and this was front of mind today.. I was assessing every tick, ready to close / move a stop, etc.

My last trade idea was inspired by some of Alias' recent posts where he marks up areas where liquidity draws happen... I used to think of those areas previously as "where would everyone get runover if price went there?" but never really incorporated the idea into an action plan.

Reflecting on the week, my one poor trading day mid-week sunk what overwise would have been a successful week. I need to vigilant about being stubborn: yesterday and today's results help reinforce that I don't need stubbornness to make points.

I'm very grateful for the comments, guidance, advice and help that everyone has shared with me - it makes a huge difference. Have a great weekend, everyone!

[chappy]

When I get bored , I listen to Day Trading Radio ..trend- line trader who trades the ES..Free Site ..

Did you have the link for it chappy?

https://www.youtube.com/user/DayTraderRockStar

[Yirbu]

So that's a reasonable start, $66.98, 1.81%.

Now I commit to providing an update tomorrow - good, bad or ugly.

Good job!

[chappy]

When I get bored , I listen to Day Trading Radio ..trend- line trader who trades the ES..Free Site ..

Did you have the link for it chappy?

https://www.youtube.com/user/DayTraderRockStar

They are currently trading a bulenox account live ...

[kiwiarian]

Did you have the link for it chappy?

https://www.youtube.com/user/DayTraderRockStar

They are currently trading a bulenox account live ...

I must have missed that one, will play it when the markets are open as it seems quiet over the weekend by looks.
Plus me being in the Asian session mainly, I wonder what they will be playing mostly.
Tro and OLiver V push a lot of content out as well that I have played in the background too.