bakedbeans' learning journal

[bb01100100]

Happy Monday;

I've taken a couple of scalps on 6J (USD/JPY) during the Asian session; 17 ticks net.
Not a very efficient session (each trade's net ticks are below):

Net ticks: -4, 7, 2, -8, -2, -3, -8, 11, 11, -7, 16.
I burned the equivalent of 9 ticks in commissions.

One of the things I need to practice about the Asian session and 6J is to give it time to work out and to think a little more about where price is within the structure..

I let myself get drawn into the details too much in the morning; there was a upward move to a prior swing high that price eventually got to - leaving a 1x lot to run would have worked nicely.

In the afternoon I saw the four hours or up-moves, the upper wicks and thought it was likely pullback might happen.. I got short (purple dotted line) when I saw we were no longer challenging the highs and then needed to sit patiently for one and three quarter hours while it eventually moved..

2023-07-24-6J-patience-context-60min.jpg (85.93 KiB) Viewed 1303 times

I thought the 1.5:1 RR was ok, given the target was a reasonable 50% swing retrace.

2023-07-24-6J-patience-paid-off-1min.jpg (111.68 KiB) Viewed 1303 times

I glad that I wasn't greedy / didn't daydream about a run of the day's lows - because immediately after the 50% retrace happened, the market pushed vertically back up and would have stopped me out for a scratch.

It feels like there is a definite artform involved with choosing when to bank and when to let something run.

[bb01100100]

Hurrah - the site is back up

I was getting gateway timeout errors this morning and thought I’d have to find something else to do with my spare time!

Netted 3 points this morning on ES - sensible trades and nothing exciting.

Traded 6J during Asian session and wished I hadn’t ..finished with a net $3 and wasted about $40 in commissions. I kept holding out for swings that didn’t happen.

[bb01100100]

I’ve been finding a huge amount of value in reading through Don_xZ’s Patterns Observation thread… Some of this percolates through into my trading and some rattles around in my head for days as I think about it.

I find myself thinking “if this, then that” a lot when trading recently, and conversely “if NOT this then sit still and do nothing”…

1) it helps with taking losses, e.g. if this candle is breached, then my idea is suspect and I need to exit asap so that I’m still in good shape for the next trade
2) it helps with giving trades time to work out, e.g. price has not crossed my line in the sand - sit tight.

Things that are just starting to enter into my trading are the ideas of entering at extremes (when it seems sensible) and being OK with being wrong a couple of times - because the stops were tight and the IF/THEN checks are being constantly evaluated. Need to work on holding for slightly longer moves.

My weak point is entering on continuations - so so awkward and uncomfortable. I think I could add 50-100% more points each day if I (thoughtfully!) bought highs and sold lows, rather than almost always fading turning points.

One thing that’s rattling around at the moment was a post by Don about “catching the beast by the tail”… essentially trading a larger timeframe wick such that you participate in the formation of the entire body for the given (larger) timeframe candle. That is nothing new for Kreslik, but it feels profound in the sense that when you’re right, you’re /really/ right, and so the task is to be situationally aware and keep your losses small.

It also appeals that you’re not trying to predict anything - higher timeframe body might be 4 ticks or 104 ticks.

I need to put this into action for day trading, adjusted for my time of day, etc.

Not sure how I’d approach this for weekly/monthly trades (which would be great for my Timezone).

[bb01100100]

Today I snatched defeat from the jaws of victory..

2023-07-26-ES-fills.jpg (91.72 KiB) Viewed 1227 times

I was 1.75 points up as price crawled higher and thought I'd be bold and buy after a retrace near the highs, working on the idea of another run of stops several points higher - that trade didn't work out and I was stopped out flat for the day.

After that I thought we'd bottomed out so went long again after a pinbar formed - that should have been a scratch instead of a full stop-out (it went 4-5 ticks onside), but I was still working on the idea of a pullback and then push to new highs.

In hindsight, breaching that pinbar to the downside indicated a potential change in bias. My next long ought to have been a short: we had just made a lower high, a lower low and had retraced. Perception fail.

We traded down to an area of prior support, so I felt it made sense to get long and trade the 50% retrace of the prior hourly candle. After seeing a pullback and rejection (and noticing that we had some gently rising candle lows) I added another lot, with the idea of holding that in case price pushed back towards the highs. I got the 50% retrace on one lot and was stopped out for a scratch on my runner.

My last trade was following the idea of pushing lower to the rectangle below prior hourly candle lows - the idea was sound but I was cautious and moved my stop to breakeven + 1 tick and got stopped out for a scratch. I didn't feel confident to short again, so stopped for the session.

I finished -4.5 points down. That's quite a lot of points to have given up. It's only when writing this summary up that I realised how I missed the wood for the trees.

Good points:

• Actively involved until we came towards the close - that got crazy and I wasn't going to take a random chance and potentially make my day doubly bad.
• Challenged myself to take a difficult entry (zline retest and push to highs). It didn't work out, but I didn't let fear keep me out.
• Formed some ideas and worked them until proven otherwise: making new highs; moving to prior support
• Added a second lot when I thought it made sense

Improvements needed:

• Missed the change in bias as we approached 3pm - perception fail that cost me points.
• Used stops that were at swing extremes + several ticks; could have kept them much closer and exited sooner
• Really ought to have taken profit on my last trade - there was 2+ points available.

In retrospect I should have focussed on the basics: evaluate the unfolding situation, keep my stops close by, take profits at stall points.

[bb01100100]

End of Asia / early UK update: churned some other trades and reduced my loss to -3.70 points after commissions.

6J trades worked nicely - 15.5 ticks
ES trades were just pain - lost a further 1.5 points being faked out several times. Bah!

Although it's good to see opportunities with 6J during the Asian session, I think I should simply focus on doing a better job with ES in the NY afternoon.

[bb01100100]

A pinch and a punch, it's the first of the month. Happy August.

I've taken advantage of a July special on Bulenox accounts and bought a $250k evaluation account at a 90% discount. I've never really thought of using one of these accounts before, but think it could be a very useful experience.

My objective is to take it slowly and net 0.18 to 0.30% per day, aiming to complete the challenge in about 8 weeks. There is no time limit, so I'm not going to rush.

Evaluation rules are:

• Profit Target 6% ($15k)
• Trailing max drawdown of 2.2% ($5.5k)

I'm thinking in terms of percentages and points, not dollars - otherwise I'll start feeling nervous.

I spent the weekend thinking about how to minimise my risk within the evaluation account rules, and came up with the following:

• Go slowly - no need for an arbitrary, self-imposed 30 day time limit
• Give myself space to be wrong, e.g. 10x wrong.. $550 max daily risk.
• Trade small - starting initially with 3 lots and looking for net 3 points per session
• Where it makes sense, leave a 1 lot to run and trail a stop

As far as I can tell, the evaluation account always has a trailing drawdown, so there is no option for building a buffer and then trading OPM. That will need to wait until after I qualify for a funded account.

I'll post each session's results here.

Trading day #1: net +0.22%, cumulative +0.22% out of 5%. Small steps.

[kiwiarian]

A pinch and a punch, it's the first of the month. Happy August.

I've taken advantage of a July special on Bulenox accounts and bought a $250k evaluation account at a 90% discount. I've never really thought of using one of these accounts before, but think it could be a very useful experience.

My objective is to take it slowly and net 0.18 to 0.30% per day, aiming to complete the challenge in about 8 weeks. There is no time limit, so I'm not going to rush.

Evaluation rules are:

• Profit Target 6% ($15k)
• Trailing max drawdown of 2.2% ($5.5k)

I'm thinking in terms of percentages and points, not dollars - otherwise I'll start feeling nervous.

I spent the weekend thinking about how to minimise my risk within the evaluation account rules, and came up with the following:

• Go slowly - no need for an arbitrary, self-imposed 30 day time limit
• Give myself space to be wrong, e.g. 10x wrong.. $550 max daily risk.
• Trade small - starting initially with 3 lots and looking for net 3 points per session
• Where it makes sense, leave a 1 lot to run and trail a stop

As far as I can tell, the evaluation account always has a trailing drawdown, so there is no option for building a buffer and then trading OPM. That will need to wait until after I qualify for a funded account.

I'll post each session's results here.

Trading day #1: net +0.22%, cumulative +0.22% out of 5%. Small steps.

nice, sounds like a good plan, hope it goes well.

[bb01100100]

I've been pouring over Don's posts in the Patterns Observation thread.. so much to learn and assimilate. Re-reading the thread reveals further detail and more information.

For my small live account I'm looking at how to assemble a swing / range-expansion approach that takes advantage of the movement that occurs in ES as we transition from London PM to US Open to US close. It seems to me there is an edge there... improved with biases from higher timeframes and further improved with some day of week analysis. Interesting stuff. This might be my version of an anchor trade - something that could run from one session to several days depending on which session breaks out in which direction.

I've also been on the simulator over the weekend, going over prior days where I struggled.

What I've learned so far is:

1. I see reversals and start fading the market far too soon
2. I forget the bias / trend and get sucked into the price action

Those two items then reduce the efficacy of my trades - I hold for larger moves but get stopped out instead.

To visually remind myself of the bias, I've placed the three SMAs from one of Alias' Dead Horse posts on my chart and I make myself keep looking at them.. which is easier since they are annoyingly in the way. SMA 9/20/50 set for the Open. In this instance, I put my ego to one side and use the visual reminder to stop myself from taking so many counter trades.

When I /wait/ and work /with/ the SMA50, I find my trades are more aligned with the price action and tend to work out more often - the difference between a green and a red day.

[bb01100100]

A pinch and a punch, it's the first of the month. Happy August.

I've taken advantage of a July special on Bulenox accounts and bought a $250k evaluation account at a 90% discount. I've never really thought of using one of these accounts before, but think it could be a very useful experience.

My objective is to take it slowly and net 0.18 to 0.30% per day, aiming to complete the challenge in about 8 weeks. There is no time limit, so I'm not going to rush.

Evaluation rules are:

• Profit Target 6% ($15k)
• Trailing max drawdown of 2.2% ($5.5k)

I'm thinking in terms of percentages and points, not dollars - otherwise I'll start feeling nervous.

I spent the weekend thinking about how to minimise my risk within the evaluation account rules, and came up with the following:

• Go slowly - no need for an arbitrary, self-imposed 30 day time limit
• Give myself space to be wrong, e.g. 10x wrong.. $550 max daily risk.
• Trade small - starting initially with 3 lots and looking for net 3 points per session
• Where it makes sense, leave a 1 lot to run and trail a stop

As far as I can tell, the evaluation account always has a trailing drawdown, so there is no option for building a buffer and then trading OPM. That will need to wait until after I qualify for a funded account.

I'll post each session's results here.

Trading day #1: net +0.22%, cumulative +0.22% out of 5%. Small steps.

nice, sounds like a good plan, hope it goes well.

Thanks Kiwiarian; the challenge is going to be keeping within the daily loss limit if I start off being plain wrong...

[bb01100100]

Today was fairly grindy for me; we inched higher on ES, eventually finding a top at around 3pm NY before coming off a bit.

My PnL flip-flopped between green and red, nearly hit my target but then got offside a couple of times, but I participated in the eventual down move and hit my 0.18% target for the day.

Day #2 result: net +0.19%, cumulative 0.41% out of 6%.

Edit: I previously wrote that the target was 5%, but that is incorrect - it's 6%.