bakedbeans' learning journal

[aliassmith]

Is there a way to see which of my posts is awaiting moderator approval? I did a text-only update for today but it's not showing up.. I didn't recall seeing a message about the post pending approval, but I might not have been paying attention due to a strong urge to drink more coffee

I dont think posts need approval. It might just be lost.

[bb01100100]

I lost my previous post - today's results were:

• Net $47.66, 1.2%
• Max DD: 1.2%, Pct profitable 62.50%

I was more patient and focussed on preserving my capital instead of adding risk.

By the time I started trading (2pm NY) the market was quiet and rangebound after the big pinbar (on H3 chart), so my desire to aim for 2-3R trades was curtailed by what I saw on offer. I managed a -1R, 1R, 0.5R sequence and then started doing small scalps and got chopped (circa -0.25R and just wasting money on commissions) before getting into a very nice momentum bar long + retrace 50% entry where I was wicked into the trade for +1R, which netted me at 1% for the day.

I was trading a mixture of 2 and 3 lots.
I saw a top-of-range stall, and put a 1lot short on that, shortly after a "spray" of orders came in and i netted my 0.2% for a 1.2% finish. I thought was enough for the day and given my choppy scalping.

The "spray" of orders was interesting - often about 3:45 - 4pm I see someone / some people throw maybe 100-200+ lots at market and push price by 2-5 points depending on the day. Some days that movement is immediately reversed and some days it seems to be treated as a warning to stay away.

I would like to trade past 4pm as there can be good movement, but I'm usually up (or down) by then and not that keen on having a large random move ruin my day or make my day worse. I will review my charts and see whether there are real opportunities there or not.

Today there was - price pushed below the "support zone" at circa 4432 (IIRC) and then swiftly reversed and pushed up to the next resistance zone at circa 4442-4445 (again, if I recall correctly - i don't have charts up); then it pulled back into the range again. I didn't trade but should do my homework and be ready for this type of movement in future.

[bb01100100]

Is there a way to see which of my posts is awaiting moderator approval? I did a text-only update for today but it's not showing up.. I didn't recall seeing a message about the post pending approval, but I might not have been paying attention due to a strong urge to drink more coffee

I don't think posts need approval. It might just be lost.

Darn - note to self: copy & paste into another editor in case this happens again.

Hey wow - you're still around, alias I'm up to about page 250 of your dead horse thread and was wondering whether you would still be around by the time I caught up. Plot spoiler, lol.

I've found your dead horse thread to be incredibly valuable resource: the posts from you and others on zline and momentum trades, trading for various ratios, risk gearing and the power of compounding small percentage gains have really helped me to "believe" in the method and internalise it.

Now piece by piece I'm putting what I've read into action, aiming for consistent execution, improved patience and better drawdown control.

[bb01100100]

I traded very very poorly today - I didn't feel confident going with the SMA(20) bias so I went against it - repeatedly.

This is a reversion to my old habits of trying to sell highs and buy lows.

I think today was very much a mental failure - I wasn't stressed, I was rationally following a very poor "just get involved" plan. On reflection it felt too hard to join the trend because it always seemed "too high" or there wasn't enough of a pullback (and then if there was I thought "that's the top, short it"; or "lows are set, get long").

So today was a mentally-lazy day where I instead of being patient and confident in the good plan (dead horse) I gave myself a pass to trade my "ego" plan.. That ego plan involves trying to be clever and predict the future and get in ahead of everyone else, and it involves using far too much size for my account and skill level. I have a lot of evidence to support that fact this doesn't work sufficiently for me to make money.

It's quite painful to share this (ego!), but I need to do this in order to progress as a trader. I can't let the ego-bully take control because he will ruin me.

I'm going to review the chart today and remind myself of what the good entries look like and where the objective exits are. Then I'll handwrite myself some reminders to help reinforce the objective of each trading session.

• Net -$135.30, -3.38%
• Max DD: 9.7%, Pct profitable 50%.

[bb01100100]

Reviewing the session objectively I can see some simple entries, with the SMA bias that would have provided good risk/reward. My objective to rewire my brain to support trading like this.

2023-06-22-b-MES.jpg (137.24 KiB) Viewed 2497 times

Blue horizonal lines are entry after a momentum candle, with a stop 2 ticks below that candle (not shown)
Rather than drawing RR lines, I look for price to close beyond a prior candle extreme - wicks don't count.
The little green lines are a measuring tool that shows points (4 ticks per point) between two prices.
Looks like 1.5R, 2R and 1R going up, and 2R, ~3.5R, 0.9R going down.

Relative to my poor trading today, this shows that following the method and avoiding second-guessing anything would be profitable: several profitable trades on the way up; patience while we see if a new high is made / not made, followed by several trades on the way down.. The last trade was into the close, so I'm sure I'd take that due to the spikes that can happen then.

This post is to remind me that my ego-bully doesn't need to get involved, just trade what is there and trust that momentum will continue.

[bb01100100]

Much better trading today - although I held two trades longer than I should have and flip flopped between 1% and 0.5% return, I managed to:

• Work with the SMA bias
• Be patient for entries
• Look at price action exits instead of fixed 1R

I noticed several times that I was looking for a "counter-bias" trade, when in fact the method would have me looking in the other direction. Example was a momentum bar down to the SMA in an uptrend - I start looking for opportunities to short somewhere above the 50% retrace on the momentum bar, but what I should be looking for is a zline entry in the direction of the bias. Very interesting.

Net result: $50.14, 1.34%
Max DD: $35.39 / 0.91%, Pct profitable: 52.5%

I think my pct profitable is low because of a combination of holding too long after price stalls and retraces, and (more importantly) because twice I fell into the trap of counter-bias trading before I caught myself and reset my thinking.

So not a spectacular day, but a significant improvement on yesterday, much better drawdown control and 90% of the trades were 2 lots, only 1 or 2 were 3 or 4 lots (adding to winners).

I use Sierra Chart and put the DOM on the chart with recently traded volume instead of the orderbook (which I find useless/distracting). It found it somewhat useful to see that yes, price was stalling and it was because there was volume at the next three ticks up.

I closed out my last long as we hit 4pm NY as price can get skittish and I had just managed to get past 1% PnL for the day.

Chart attached to show the DOM on the chart.. I reset the volume occasionally so that I can see recent activity, otherwise every price just shows thousands traded which isn't very useful.

2023-06-23-MES.jpg (123.22 KiB) Viewed 2456 times

Things to focus on:

1. Remember the SMA bias - don't fall into the trap of counter-bias trading
2. Following on from (1) - remember zline entries - uncomfortable but the best price
3. Continue to use 2 and 3 lot entries - less stress and better for drawdown control

[bb01100100]

Also, I know it's pretty lame to mention the "one that got away", but I will anyway...

I was looking at the 3hr chart after price stalled at 4422 area and then made a nice momentum candle under the MA and realised there might be a push lower to the 50% retrace of the 3hr candle...

2023-06-23-MES-3hr.jpg (20.32 KiB) Viewed 2449 times

I placed a sell order at the top blue line, assuming there would be a retrace likely up to the open of the green candle at circa 4418; I waited patiently but price never got there - but I thought "no, be patient". It looks like it managed a 50% retrace perhaps before powering down to the lower blue line which was the 50% retrace.

2023-06-23-MES-2-ticks-out.jpg (79.82 KiB) Viewed 2449 times

It was good to see an opportunity set up and for it to play out, but disappointing I wasn't more "on the ball". Note to self - mark up those locations ahead of time.

On the plus side I did see a sensible entry long at 4414 which I traded up to 4418 (1 lot) and exited as price stalled and retraced. The rationale for the trade was congestion and two attempts and making a new low followed by a retrace past the zline of the second red candle. I was thinking of the 'lower high, lower high, higher high' trade idea at the time.

Sometimes I look at two candles and imagine what they look like if they were combined.. the first green candle and second red candle in my congestion zone would look like a pinbar (sort of), so which price pushed up to 4414 that looked like a pinbar wick failure.

Traded one lot because it was counter bias.

[bb01100100]

A fairly reasonable Friday for me - fairly cautious, patient and working with the SMA bias.

I traded the first down move, netting 1.5-2R on smaller size, so account impact was +1%.
I saw a nice base forming (start of my rectangle) and went long at the lower third area of the rectangle but price moved lower so I was stopped out for -0.25% - I saw this as a breakout to the downside, so I reverse and went short at the open of the bar after the breakout - I held until stopped out at top of the rectangle.

I was looking at the 3hr and wondered whether we would push lower below the lows of several prior candles, so I was looking for 4477 as a target - a reasonable idea, since we were in the area at the time.

In hindsight I should have set the ego aside and accepted that when the reversal green momentum bar closed at the low of the rectangle and then the next bar retraced 50% and then traded back up to the low of the rectangle it was time to scratch the trade.
That put me at -1% for the day.

2023-06-24-MES.jpg (127.94 KiB) Viewed 2402 times

I watched, realising that I'd misread the price action but avoiding the temptation to "get involved". Noticing that someone really wanted to sell at 4391 (where price stops dead for 4 candles) I shorted with the idea of shorting into a long trade for the bounce of the rectangle.
That worked and I got long at the fib retrace lines in the middle of the chart.
I held until price stalled (higher blue line) and then closed out when price retraced below a candle low (lower blue line).
That got me to 1.09% for the day.

I keep observing some very good momentum in the 10 minutes before NY 4pm. Today I was cautious - afraid of losing 1% in the last 10 minutes of the session, so I sat aside and watched.

End of week PnL: $7.42, 0.267% up. I recovered from my poor trading day on Weds, which I'm very pleased about.

I think this represents a good start to rewiring my brain: to be patient, to trade the method and to trade with size that is appropriate.

PnL summary - with graphics, lol.

2023-06-24-EOW-PnL.jpg (106.21 KiB) Viewed 2402 times

One of the things that is helping me greatly is reading Alias's dead horse thread where the discussion demonstrates that small consistent gains can add up to large absolute value returns. It provides support mentally for when I see crazy high returns from other traders and start to wonder whether I'm actually wasting my time messing around with 0.5% and 1% gains. That confidence converts into belief and that belief converts into actions that help me progress.

The quality of information on Kreslik is great... Happy weekend everyone.

[Don_xyZ]

A fairly reasonable Friday for me - fairly cautious, patient and working with the SMA bias.

I traded the first down move, netting 1.5-2R on smaller size, so account impact was +1%.
I saw a nice base forming (start of my rectangle) and went long at the lower third area of the rectangle but price moved lower so I was stopped out for -0.25% - I saw this as a breakout to the downside, so I reverse and went short at the open of the bar after the breakout - I held until stopped out at top of the rectangle.

I was looking at the 3hr and wondered whether we would push lower below the lows of several prior candles, so I was looking for 4477 as a target - a reasonable idea, since we were in the area at the time.

In hindsight I should have set the ego aside and accepted that when the reversal green momentum bar closed at the low of the rectangle and then the next bar retraced 50% and then traded back up to the low of the rectangle it was time to scratch the trade.
That put me at -1% for the day.

2023-06-24-MES.jpg

I watched, realising that I'd misread the price action but avoiding the temptation to "get involved". Noticing that someone really wanted to sell at 4391 (where price stops dead for 4 candles) I shorted with the idea of shorting into a long trade for the bounce of the rectangle.
That worked and I got long at the fib retrace lines in the middle of the chart.
I held until price stalled (higher blue line) and then closed out when price retraced below a candle low (lower blue line).
That got me to 1.09% for the day.

I keep observing some very good momentum in the 10 minutes before NY 4pm. Today I was cautious - afraid of losing 1% in the last 10 minutes of the session, so I sat aside and watched.

End of week PnL: $7.42, 0.267% up. I recovered from my poor trading day on Weds, which I'm very pleased about.

I think this represents a good start to rewiring my brain: to be patient, to trade the method and to trade with size that is appropriate.

PnL summary - with graphics, lol.

2023-06-24-EOW-PnL.jpg


One of the things that is helping me greatly is reading Alias's dead horse thread where the discussion demonstrates that small consistent gains can add up to large absolute value returns. It provides support mentally for when I see crazy high returns from other traders and start to wonder whether I'm actually wasting my time messing around with 0.5% and 1% gains. That confidence converts into belief and that belief converts into actions that help me progress.

The quality of information on Kreslik is great... Happy weekend everyone.

Nowadays, the only difference between high R traders and high hit rate traders is the trader themselves because the knowledge part is in abundance. So the choices are, you be yourself and find a way to trade that fits you or you find a way to trade that is appealing to you and then you adapt yourself accordingly.

[bb01100100]

Thanks Don. I've been mulling your statement over during the weekend..

At this point I'm resetting my approach to trading and using dead horse as a way of rewiring my brain to trade "better". I'm interested in high R trades, but at the moment there are fundamental issues with my trading that I need to resolve. Practicing a single method, single market, single session is helping me find my way and also to recover when I have a "failure of perception", or worse - revert to my bad habits.

Everything at this early stage of my progression is about adaptation. I'll never find high-R trades if I can't work 1-2R trades, or if I average losers, use too much leverage, hold for "too long", etc.

When I think "high R" i imagine a chart where someone held through the ups and downs of a market - we get to the see the finished product, but I wonder what decisions kept someone in a trade with, say, 50-80% retraces, etc. Hopefully there are some cold hard stats being leaned on there.

Alternatively I've read that some people use very-very small stops, maybe that's the thrust of the approach. I know my stops at the moment are quite generous, so it's on my to-do list..

While I'm working on my foundational skill, can you point me in the right direction for where high-R trades are discussed? I haven't finished Alias's dead horse thread yet, so maybe it's there, lol.