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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Thu Dec 04, 2008 8:51 pm

Image

Get ready for more BUZZARD REVERSALS.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

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flipin_around
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Postby flipin_around » Thu Dec 04, 2008 9:03 pm

Same Pair Breaking down now. out with 20 pips this trade. still had not signaled exit ot time of trade. ( i did stop out on one trade earlier -12 pips)

TRO,
this is all your indicators and methods. not using any indicators besides what you see here. Thanks again for sharing your methods. I think im still trying to overcomplicate things, trying to go back and reprogram my brain to see only what the market is doing now.
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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Thu Dec 04, 2008 9:06 pm

Image

And another BUZZARD REVERSAL!
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

winny
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Postby winny » Thu Dec 04, 2008 10:15 pm

TheRumpledOne wrote:Image

And another BUZZARD REVERSAL!


TRO, you already know the way I trade with the Buyzone, and
I will keep on doing it that way.

But yesterday I read your posts about the BUZZARD Reversal.
I did not know how it worked. You explained that its just 3 candles
in a row (60 min candles), and the 4th candle could become a winner.
Please correct me if I am wrong.

When I look at the picture that you uploaded I see 6 candles down,
and the 7th candle is up.
But did you also trade on the 4th, 5th and 6th candles, and did get
stopped out ?

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cfabian
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Postby cfabian » Thu Dec 04, 2008 10:28 pm

winny wrote:
TheRumpledOne wrote:Image

And another BUZZARD REVERSAL!


TRO, you already know the way I trade with the Buyzone, and
I will keep on doing it that way.

But yesterday I read your posts about the BUZZARD Reversal.
I did not know how it worked. You explained that its just 3 candles
in a row (60 min candles), and the 4th candle could become a winner.
Please correct me if I am wrong.

When I look at the picture that you uploaded I see 6 candles down,
and the 7th candle is up.
But did you also trade on the 4th, 5th and 6th candles, and did get
stopped out ?


I believe he scalps the tails. All these setups are good for 10 pips or so.

About your buyzone methodology, are you willing to explain what do you do with it and why you're successful with it?

Cheers

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winny
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Postby winny » Thu Dec 04, 2008 10:43 pm

cfabian wrote:I believe he scalps the tails. All these setups are good for 10 pips or so.

About your buyzone methodology, are you willing to explain what do you do with it and why you're successful with it?

Cheers


cfabian, I really only trade during the opening hours, just like TRO outlined in the other threads of the Buyzone strategy. I only use his buyzone with the opening price as my stop. The moment I trade is crucial for me. Now, there are indeed moments that you get 10 pips net. And that is very much ok, if you can do it daily. But there are times that you get whipsawed and loose these profits. That is why its important for me to let my profits run at certain moments. I do it simply by trading at the right moment and by looking at the movement of price. To let profits run above or below the buyzone one can apply different techniques to display this trend. We all have our own methods for doing that. Thats it, nothing more. More then 70% winning trades with this method.

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Thu Dec 04, 2008 11:32 pm

winny wrote:
TheRumpledOne wrote:Image

And another BUZZARD REVERSAL!


TRO, you already know the way I trade with the Buyzone, and
I will keep on doing it that way.

But yesterday I read your posts about the BUZZARD Reversal.
I did not know how it worked. You explained that its just 3 candles
in a row (60 min candles), and the 4th candle could become a winner.
Please correct me if I am wrong.

When I look at the picture that you uploaded I see 6 candles down,
and the 7th candle is up.
But did you also trade on the 4th, 5th and 6th candles, and did get
stopped out ?



NO!!

IN/OUT for quick pips.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Thu Dec 04, 2008 11:36 pm

Image

And again...

And again...
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Fri Dec 05, 2008 12:04 am

Image

Can you say

L I N E A R

R E G R E S S I O N ?
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

msforex
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Postby msforex » Fri Dec 05, 2008 5:14 am

TheRumpledOne wrote:
winny wrote:
TRO, you already know the way I trade with the Buyzone, and
I will keep on doing it that way.

But yesterday I read your posts about the BUZZARD Reversal.
I did not know how it worked. You explained that its just 3 candles
in a row (60 min candles), and the 4th candle could become a winner.
Please correct me if I am wrong.

When I look at the picture that you uploaded I see 6 candles down,
and the 7th candle is up.
But did you also trade on the 4th, 5th and 6th candles, and did get
stopped out ?



NO!!

IN/OUT for quick pips.



I think winny got a very good point! Following the "rule" he would have traded with the 4th, 5th and 6th candle as well - what would turn out to be no reverse trade in the end - although probably he still would have made some PIPs with these trades. So my question is: is it really more profitable to take a reversal after 3 or more candles in a row?

To verify this I made a small indicator to calculate the chances for a successful reversal trade after n-candles in a row (EURJPY, H1):



- Column 1 and 2 show the no. of candles in a row (buy on top block, sell on bottom one)
- Columns P6...P100 shows the no. of successful reversals with 6..100 PIPs for the candles in row

Take 1st row: out of 216 single buy candles 185 had a 6 PIP (or more) reverse. This is a probability of 85.6%.
Now take 4th row: out of 18 patterns 4 in a row, 14 had a successful 6 PIP reversal. This is a probability of 77.7%!

I've checked other currencies and came to similar figures: there is NO SIGNIFICANT difference in probability for a successful 6 PIP reversal based on the no. of candles in a row or the color of a previous candle! For a H1 timeframe you always go with a chance of about 85% (in average) for a successful 6PIP reversal trade!

Anybody can proof me wrong?

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