Never Lose Again

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razorboy
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Postby razorboy » Fri Dec 05, 2008 2:54 pm

That zero sum result was exactly what I was referring to

with out the knowldege of knowing where to put your sl's and tp, it is kinda like this quote from the movie better off dead

Charles De Mar: [giving skiing instructions] Go that way, really fast. If something gets in your way, turn.

msforex wrote:
The house in Vegas has, at best, a 52% - 48% advantage over the player.

But in BlackJack, there are times when the player has the edge based on the CARD COUNT. That's why if they catch you counting cards, you are asked to leave.

Are you saying there's an 85% chance of a 6 pip reversal trade each hour?

You know, VEGAS, would kill for those odds.

Also, are you looking at the H1 candle or summing up the M1 candles?

Thanks for sharing.


I am comparing the closing price of the H1 candle with the highest/lowest price of the following candle: in a successful reversal the low/high of the following candle must be at least 6 PIP below/above closing price of the previous candle. As shown in my indicator this is the case in +- 85% - whatever color the previous candle has!

Unfortunately, even with a 85% chance of win there is still somebody who will spoil our party: Mr. StopLoss or THE loosing trade. The 85% chance for win comes basically down to losing 1 trade out of 7. So if we make 6*6 = 36 PIPs the loosing trade will eat all 36 PIPs of profit (in statistic average). This is know as the risk/reward ratio. Test it with an indicator or even better an EA - its simple mathematics.

So obviously a high probability for a successful trade is not enough - we also need to consider the risk/reward ratio!

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Fri Dec 05, 2008 2:58 pm

Image

Nice scalps this hour..

GET READY FOR THE NEXT ROUND.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Fri Dec 05, 2008 3:06 pm

Image

Nice scalps this hour..

GET READY FOR THE NEXT ROUND.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

xmess7
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Postby xmess7 » Fri Dec 05, 2008 3:12 pm

Hello to all. Last two days I only made 2 trades so far.
Here is yesterdays.
-20 pip loss (mistake, I hit the wrong dang button LOL)
Image

And here is today's trade. Not done with this one yet but, I do have a trailing stoploss of about 50 pips. (Update it is at now at +150pips)
So if it gets closed out I will still be ahead 50-20 = 30 pips. No need to be greedy just patient. :)
Oh, please consider that these are 4H TimeFrame trades. Do not try this until
you get the hang of working in the lower time frames. I intend on returning
to the 1H hour. It's just that sometimes I SEE the setup and go for it.
Image

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Postby razorboy » Fri Dec 05, 2008 3:31 pm

if you use a 20 stop loss. you need 4 wins to make up for every loss you have
To make this work you would essentially need to play 24 hours a day. You need to have a take profit level of more than 6 pips (or just taking what you can get) - risk reward ratio or put your sl at 6 to 9 pips


Using pivot point entries of dynamic fib levels with an SL of 20, I have had 4 to 5 losers in row before. If I was looking to make 5 to 10 pips on a trade, an 80 to 100 pip hole is a real bitch to climb out of.

While there are high probability set ups, they are just that. Unless you are an excellent cherry picker, you need to swing at every pitch if you are playing with such a skewed risk reward ratio to hope you catch that big one

IF you are just playing one currency to learn, doing 3 to 4 hour buzzard trades a day really doesnt give you all that much experience or exposure. While I would love to keep out of the market when it is really tight, the truth is that you can't when you are learning. If i dont know which way the market is going to break, I take both sides with a 20 pt stop loss - will usually make few pips for the effort.

Trading selectively will sometimes give you a great sense of confidence that you know what you are doing when really you may just have been lucky. Collecting a pile of pips over a prolonged period of time and ranging/trending market conditions, then you have something

Right now I am in the midst of trying to figure out retracements - ie how come sometimes price retrace 38% of a prior movement and sometimes it retraces over 100% -

I
msforex wrote:
Why would you lose 36 pips?

If you use DRAGON's MONEY MANAGEMENT, SL = 20.


Using 20 PIPs stoploss your chances of winning will go down to 76.9%!

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Postby razorboy » Fri Dec 05, 2008 3:40 pm

but having said that.......i'll give the buzzard a try :)
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!

http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

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Postby TheRumpledOne » Fri Dec 05, 2008 3:59 pm

Image

Maybe they'll trigger this coming hour...
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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razorboy
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Postby razorboy » Fri Dec 05, 2008 4:28 pm

gbpjap look slike it is ready to pop no?
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!



http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

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razorboy
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Postby razorboy » Fri Dec 05, 2008 4:29 pm

just popped for 10 or so
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!



http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

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razorboy
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Postby razorboy » Fri Dec 05, 2008 4:47 pm

i think the buzzard is my new girlfriend..............
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!



http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

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