aliassmith wrote:paweldobkowski wrote:aliassmith wrote:Seems like it varies, I just go back in time to see where the turns happen and compare
8:00am and 9:00am turned
8:30am and 9:30am were similar
7:42am and 8:42am and 9:42am
So there could just be a collection of all the player creating these patterns
thats interesting
need to look into it
Now that I put it out there, someone will come across the posts and say
"Oh no there is another lunatic that thinks the markets are manipulated"
I think the markets are manipulated to some extent.
I also believe that the collective behaviors of the market participants reproduce similar patterns
and I never really considered that there was a time based element also. Which if you think
about it, probably 90% of traders use time charts.
i mean i remember when years ago i spoke with a maths professor
i think it was back in college
and he said most of the "random" things in life are falling under the standard distribution principle (the "bell curve")
so around 68% of people in a randomly selected group will "act" similar
(they will have similar incomes, have similar lifespans, have smiliar amount of kids, similar height, weight etc.)
so for example if you got grades at school from 1 - 5
around 68% of students will get the average of 3 (i mean between 2 and 4 but im talking about the average of that)
you cant tell which individuals will fall into which group
but you can be sure that the standard distribution will describe them in the end
i worked at two power trading firms
and in one of them i met a guy who was a PHD in statistics or something like that (he still is, we are good friends now)
and he was resposible for forecasting the energy consumption for every single day of the year
the firm had over 3 milion clients
and most of the time he was almost spot on
we talked about that a lot actually
individuals are not predictable
but people in groups are
so whether the market is manipulated or not
it will act as if it is
because any random action will prompt a certain reaction from the most of the participants
again! people will enter around the same places, place stops and takeprofits around the same places, hold for a similar amount of time etc.
and we cant "learn" to act differently
we cant all get on the call and decide that next time we'll do something else
i think we just need a characteristic PLACE that "resets" the game
so extremes are a good starting point (as you already do and look for reversals)
and im pretty sure there is something to it
this is as YALE as it gets right now
lol