My new chaos findings implemented in forex trading

forex live trades, setups, charts

Moderator: moderators

Paul&Paul
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1210
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 12:29 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

There is no limit to the number of questions

Postby Paul&Paul » Mon Feb 20, 2012 2:20 am

you can answer.
Obtaining seperate judgements on the issue of markets behavior is key in the understanding of markets.

Traders who only think of their profits, the present, the future or the past are doomed as they contradict the basic principle of natural survival.

Instead of thinking about their profits they must provide a continuous assessment of the main problems that an organism must solve to survive.

How are things going?
Is there a threat or an opportunity?
Is everything normal?
Should I trade or avoid trading?

These four basic questions are quite far from thinking in terms of possible profits, and, naturally they are quite far from thinking in terms of possible losses.

These four questions are quite far from TakeProfit or Stoploss calculations.

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

Paul&Paul
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1210
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 12:29 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

Is everything normal?

Postby Paul&Paul » Mon Feb 20, 2012 2:41 am

This question inevitably leads us to statistics, rules and patterns.

This question clearly shows that a human mind naturally seeks patterns and rules confirmed by statistics.

I remember the issue discussed earlier somewhere on this forum that we try to see patterns where there aren't.

Well, my observation is that markets do not seem to be simple maze problems.

Markets are not places for quick calculations but for constant evaluation.

The problem is that each time we do not always know what needs to be taken into account in order to survive.

Yes, were it some calculations only, then we would better use
fast computers instead of hand calculators.

Yet the constant evaluation requires many different assessments from different dimensions of our mind.

Paul&Paul
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1210
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 12:29 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

We cannot switch off our subconsciousness.

Postby Paul&Paul » Mon Feb 20, 2012 2:56 am

It is the first and the most effective warning signal about things going.

The charts are like a language. To understand all we need to know its words and word structures and their meaning. We also need to know the secret code named grammar.

We need to be able to use the language with understanding.
We need to be able to communicate with each other even when language communicators are incomplete, wrong or perturbed.

Charts are like everyday life, rarely speaking to us in standard English without annoying noise in the background.

Paul&Paul
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1210
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 12:29 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

Evaluating markets as attractive or not

Postby Paul&Paul » Mon Feb 20, 2012 3:07 am

is a basic assessment.

We do it automatically, whether we want it or we do not, and it influences us.
We first want to see the charts.
It's volatility which catches our eye.

It is the best example how the difficult question how markets are attractive is replaced with a substituting, much simpler and a much easier question how much volatile it is.

Yet "attractive" and "volatile" are not synonimes.

Paul&Paul
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1210
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 12:29 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

We may not realize that the target question about markets

Postby Paul&Paul » Mon Feb 20, 2012 3:13 am

was difficult because an intuitive answer to it came readily to mind.

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

Paul&Paul
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1210
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 12:29 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

EURUSD as on 20.02

Postby Paul&Paul » Mon Feb 20, 2012 3:34 am

EURUSD H4 chart in two steps with major chaos determinants, triggers and their expansions.
Attachments
eurusd20.02x.gif
eurusd20.02x.gif (51.72 KiB) Viewed 188 times
eurusd20.02.gif
eurusd20.02.gif (46.77 KiB) Viewed 189 times

sts
rank: <50 posts
rank: <50 posts
Posts: 9
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2011 8:00 am
Reputation: 0
Gender: Male
Contact:

God perturbs for good

Postby sts » Mon Feb 20, 2012 2:04 pm

Regarding the "Goldman is a sell" insider trading story...
Or the story of "Bank of America at price 5.00"...
You showed us that... or made us think that the money market Lords are doing perturbations.
Those perturbations in these two major bank shares took the Dow Jones up to somewhere far from the crisis levels.
And Dow took many other markets to somewhere far from crisis levels.
The gods of the markets simply have done sth that is good for all.
The perception of the ordinary consumer is perturbed via money market tools.
That's what gods do for ordinary people...

By looking at that a very disturbing question emerges in my mind:
What if the holly books are perturbations from the heavens/advanced alliens.
Social systems are perturbed via communication tools.
And the the holly books - best sellers of the whole human history - is a communication success...
But why did god bother sending 3 major religions not 1?
Are we simply being perturbed for the good?
Sounds crazy even for me : -)

(dear Paul&Paul I have sent you a question 2 days ago via PM... in case you haven't noticed...)

sts
rank: <50 posts
rank: <50 posts
Posts: 9
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2011 8:00 am
Reputation: 0
Gender: Male
Contact:

Postby sts » Tue Feb 21, 2012 7:50 am

"To be precise, the extra amount by which you need to turn on the tap decreases by a factor of 4,699.. at each doubling of the period" Nature's Numbers

Less energy does more work as the chaos evolves?
Is that what this phrase suggests?

If so then the indicators that we use should be adapted to the chaotic nature.
RSI as to say... is one of the most widely used indicator since in a sense it monitors the positive and negative feedback.
But just a second... a reading of something over 70... is an overbought signal or not?
But a positive feedback is a positive feedback whether it is 70 or 51?
A change from 70 to 71... that plus1... is it same plus1 when RSI jumped from 70 to 71 just an hour or a day ago?
The answers should depend on where the market is at that moment according to the period doubling cascade.
And I hardly have enough equipment to test my suggestion...

Paul&Paul
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1210
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 12:29 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

To sts

Postby Paul&Paul » Tue Feb 21, 2012 9:18 pm

I will respond to the RSI problem, other issues later.

The concept of RSI is presented here.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relative_Strength_Index

Its concept is not suited for chaos studies. I tried it like some other concepts.

It is based on some relativity according to the formula and relativity is non-existent in chaotic systems or in the best case looking for relativity inevitably will lead to wrong conclusions.

Take for example the weather forecasting to understand what I mean.
Two adjacent regions may have quite different real weather, one region
frequent showers, the other no rain at all. For you it is important to know that
it will frequently rain in region 1 or that it will not rain in region 2, rather than
use some "relative strength of raining" in a combined region 1 and 2.

Whatever pertains to comparisons is completely expressed with Fibonacci ratios in a most natural way.

RSI is an indicator which not only ignores the existence of Fibonacci ratios
but also forces us to believe that "good" are some other ratios like 30 and 70 on the scale from 0 to 100.

Well then, 30 and 70 for RSI are as good as any other pair of signal lines like
40 and 65, or 23 and 98 or whatever number from 0 to 100. Some numbers may look well fitted over a period of time but the fact is that none is derived mathematically.

Paul&Paul
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1210
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 12:29 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

EURUSD as on 21.02

Postby Paul&Paul » Tue Feb 21, 2012 10:01 pm

What have we got with this wretched euro/dollar.
Can you see the footprints of Very Important Politicians treading to Athens carrying a super secret account number engraved on a golden plate?

Look at the returns to UPOs.
1.3284.
1.3203 taken twice.

Methinks the VIPs travelled just with the balance money for Greece, to say it lightly. They linked a sense of cognitive ease to illusions of truth, pleasant feelings and reduced vigilance.

They also responded more strongly to losses than to gains.

In short, their thinking is fast.
More on the subject in popular psychological studies published in 2021 and later.
Attachments
eurusd21.02.gif
eurusd21.02.gif (51.2 KiB) Viewed 204 times

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.


Return to “forex”