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Paul&Paul
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EURCAD longer term targets

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Jul 10, 2011 7:59 pm

EURCAD should expand its huge trigger (93pips) from H1 chart further. So far the pair has plunged a little more than to 5.8664=1.3682.

9.1299 is at 1.3378
14.208 is at 1.2906.

1.3378 is also a UPO from February 22.

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Paul&Paul
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CHFPLN on the agenda

Postby Paul&Paul » Tue Jul 12, 2011 2:40 am

CHFPLN has completed 9.1299 of a trigger up (137pips) at 3.4098.
Also the pair completed 14.208 of a trigger up (89pips) at 3.4011.

What is still in the cards:

3.4452 as 14.208 of a trigger up (113pips).
3.4717 as 14.208 of a trigger up (174pips).
3.4794 as 14.208 of a trigger up (137pips).

Recall that 14.208 is a fractal expansion typical for catastrophies/crashes (vide crash at NIKKEI 225 after the earthquake and tsunami on March 11, 2011).

The slump at the stock exchange, the plunge of PLN and EUR is often attributed to excesses of the bad speculators who disorderly manage their own accounts and directly impact the good investors who cannot hold their positions and a subsequent stampede ruins the wealth of the innocent public.

The problem is that the financial markets reflect true life and true emotions and nothing is faked. Fear is a very exceptional emotion. Fear is a distressing negative sensation induced by a perceived threat. It is a basic survival mechanism occurring in response to the threat of danger. In short, fear is the ability to recognize danger and flee from it or confront it, also known as the Fight or Flight response. Worth noting is that fear almost always relates to future events, such as worsening of a situation, or continuation of a situation that is unacceptable. Fear could also be an instant reaction to something presently happening.

We presently witness a clash of the Flight response of the investors with the Fight response of the politicians, the latter trying downplaying the threat of danger. The key thing is that investors fear about not losing their money while politicians fear about not losing their power. They are not responding to the same thing. It is this difference of perception that exacerbates investors most and finally induces crash-like developments in financial markets.

As said earlier, the 14.208 fractal expansion of a trigger observed locally is a sign of great instability of the whole system. It is also true that we may know little or even nothing about the cause of this intrinsic instability. Alas, this cannot be the case now.

Paul&Paul
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S&P500

Postby Paul&Paul » Tue Jul 12, 2011 4:09 am

S&P500 has 1245.9 from one fractal expansion and
1243.1 =4.669 from a new trigger down. The market should dip there in the first leg.
9.1299=1158.1
14.208=1062.1.

Paul&Paul
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USDPLN

Postby Paul&Paul » Tue Jul 12, 2011 4:22 am

USDPLN
9.1299 of a trigger up (145pips) = 2.8456 (done)
14.208 =2.9193

Paul&Paul
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oil H1

Postby Paul&Paul » Tue Jul 12, 2011 5:21 pm

oil H1

Struggles below best sell 117.51 has not completed 5.8664=120.13 yet.
So a break higher is in the cards minimum to 120.13.
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CHFPLN for 700,000

Postby Paul&Paul » Tue Jul 12, 2011 5:40 pm

CHFPLN completed 14.208 of three triggers up.

3.4452 as 14.208 of a trigger up (113pips).
3.4717 as 14.208 of a trigger up (174pips).
3.4794 as 14.208 of a trigger up (137pips).

The meaning of 14.208 was explained earlier.

CHFPLN above 3.5100 has been the news headline today. Only because it refers to a 700,000 target audience.

14.208 has not been mentioned though because it refers to a considerably lower number, a factor invisible in fact.

Interesting that at the moment of CHF's attractiveness for credit takers, it is raised to the position of a nuclear deterrent.

Buy dear to feel the quality.

Converting CHFPLN into banks' revenues requires triple-core processors to be precise. Yet, it is an astonishingly simple task for hand calculation. So much more to enjoy.

Paul&Paul
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CHFPLN

Postby Paul&Paul » Thu Jul 14, 2011 8:22 pm

CHFPLN developed a huge trigger up which split into several smaller ones.

Let's put our heads together on this, decided bigheads.
First by writing a letter to an Emperor.
Returned to sender, address unknown.

The deciding factor in this area are two things, the non-trivial 14.208 target
@ 3.4793 and the even less trivial 4.669 of small trigger up at 3.5010.
Above it CHFPLN is free to go as you wish, within the constraints of the system. It is a headline for populist reasons. Nobody was baffled up by triggers which occurred in early June. Everyone seems concerned now.

One of the most intelligent remark unexpectedly came from the president of the Polish National Bank. He said that the (now) junk papers had been purchased by some idiots. Who sells stuff to idiots and makes money on it he did not mention. Hopefully now they sell stuff to a little more educated morons.

I call it (the remark) a typical technical indicator. It shows very well, unfortunately with a lag and it repaints. This is the essence of preservation of Porsche lovers here and there who prefer to sunbathe far away from Mount Vesuvius.

A second session CHFPLN cannot decide what to do next. Volatility is high at these levels. So far prices higher than 3.4793 have been used by some players to close their longs. They may refurbish on a decisive break. Meantime eyes watch Obama, the Congress and the eurozone.

3.5010 stands there for some reason which I read as an invitation to think south.
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Paul&Paul
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Of EURUSD we shall learn more

Postby Paul&Paul » Thu Jul 14, 2011 8:37 pm

EURUSD did more than 4.669 and a little less than 5.8664. It is a sign of instability upwards.

The UPO @ 1.4011 is the sign of strength.

2.4220 of the trigger down is at 1.4106.
Attachments
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EURUSD hardly a nail-bitting scene

Postby Paul&Paul » Fri Jul 15, 2011 7:02 pm

EURUSD marked the 2.4220 border @ 1.4106 twice.
And painted semafor3 there.
Not much change and we will not see more if one could probe space and time at smaller and smaller distances. Towards the Friday's close the note is bullish.
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Paul&Paul
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CHFPLN gives little rest

Postby Paul&Paul » Fri Jul 15, 2011 7:16 pm

CHFPLN is moving basically between the two lines marked.
We need to measure the temperature.
The tone is bullish at the close of 3.4862.

Hungary?s forint, Poland?s zloty, South Africa?s rand and Brazil?s real are the emerging-market currencies most vulnerable to credit crisis.

For those who can read currency charts it goes without saying that CHFPLN looks traded more actively than theoretically more important USDPLN. Well, whether they know it or not, Swissy credit holders are the part of the game. It is not important who provides liquidity for this market. The key point is that it is their blood, sweat and tears.

So whenever anyone writes about vulnerability, appropriate would be to mention the other side of the coin. Vultures are rife, though less than donors.
Attachments
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Last edited by Paul&Paul on Sat Jul 16, 2011 4:15 am, edited 2 times in total.

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