My new chaos findings implemented in forex trading

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Paul&Paul
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EURUSD

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat Jul 02, 2011 7:44 pm

EURUSD left behind a UPO @ 1.4321 and this is the level to which the market is bound to return some time in the future.

There are three different triggers down with three different multipliers apllied
to study their fractal expansion and so its 5.8664, 9.1299 and 3.5699 which give 1.4321, 1.4330, 1.4322. In other words those triggers cannot be erased
for some reason, their targets cannot be erased and the memory of the UPO @ 1.4321 will stay in the system for as long as it is needed.

On the upside EURUSD marked a border at 1.4516/17/19 which come from three
different triggers. Those targets have converged in one place and that is why they constitute something hard to break. It also means that other fractal expansions of the same triggers up diverge from each other and there will be no alignment farther up if only these to are to be counted.

Currently what is happening is some escape from the UPO-repeller @ 1.4321.
It means that EURUSD can go farther up (expand farther) and the targets are already determined. It may also drop to the UPO level and that UPO level is also determined (memorized).

It remains to be said what UPOs we have from the top. A brief look into the history shows two levels from early June.
1.4683
1.4640.
These are the UPOs from June 8. We knew they were heavy selling levels not just now, almost a month later but we knew it then.
When we look at the chart from that period, the candlework is self-explanatory. Yhere can be absolutely no doubt that some strong hands provoked and forced very heavy selling until 1.4102, which was more than 500 pips.
Today we are closer to the upside of the zigzag than the downside. It seems that those forces behinds a return to 1.4600+ will not stop being so near.

The finaL countdown is seeing whether we already have targets of the existing triggers placed near those UPOs.

The big trigger (82 pips) will probably split into some smaller ones, though
its 4.669 expansion alone can yield 1.4703 which is above those one month old UPOs. So the potential is there in the system.

Friday closed with a bearish note (the bearishness/bullishness is based on
longer term settings, two samples of the size of 466 and 356).
Attachments
eurusd2.07x.gif
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Paul&Paul
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GBPUSD returned to a UPO@ 1.6110

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat Jul 02, 2011 8:45 pm

GBPUSD returned to a UPO@ 1.6110.

It still seems that the role of UPO-repellers is being underestimated. The way the market moves and reacts proves that this inner built memory plays a significant role to such an extent that this information should be presented in the first place, before any other dissertations are made.

We are immensely intrigued by the fact when GBPUSD returns to a UPO which occurred on June 22. We are intrigued even more by our inability to determine when such as happy happening can take place on the time axis. Only this, could make us tremendously rich over a span of 10 working days.

In terms of chaos, it is one of the longer-term orbits, much longer than an average period orbit. There are not many such orbits in the memory of the system. However, we may be unlucky to have bet on just the longest orbit of the system, just by chance. There should be an order within all the orbits and their periodicities. We may be able to know which places (what time) of the market we should avoid for a simple reason that the occurrence of a very long period orbit must take place soon. This is coming back to the fundamental question, whether it is better to trade in a contrarian way or with a trend. Chaos shows that what we actually are doing is neither contrarian nor with a trend trading. It is very relative. The same position can be contrarian and with a trend at the same time. It only depends which UPO it is being referred to.

There is another UPO @ 1.6195 from the upside.

There is a UPO @ 1.5958 from the downside.
Attachments
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Paul&Paul
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GBPUSD's 1.6110 shows also 14.208 of a trigger up

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Jul 03, 2011 9:04 am

A study reveals that GBPUSD's 1.6110 was also 14.208 of a trigger up.
So there we have an alignment of a UPO with a "catastrophic" expansion of a 12pip trigger. Then the blown bubble burst causing some "fireworks" in all directions.
Found was another UPO @ 1.6020 to which the market is bound to return some time in the future.
Attachments
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Paul&Paul
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5min Triggers spotted near semafor3 on GBPUSD

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Jul 03, 2011 9:31 am

Here is a 5M chart of GBPUSD with semafor3 and a large sample for detecting turbulences.

For every semafor3 which was eventually fixed on the chart there is a small trigger which expands exponentially to a new semafor3.

Semafor's settings (13.32.81) suit well the reduction of the number of 1s and 2s.
Attachments
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Paul&Paul
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GBPJPY

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Jul 03, 2011 12:39 pm

GBPJPY did precisely 4.669 of a trigger up.
I see two very active triggers up. The other one's 3.5699 is at 129.87 and GBPJPY closed there.
There is a UPO-repeller at 128.96 to which the market is bound to return.
The touch at 129.03 did not cancel the validity of yet another come back in the future.
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the concept of best buy/best sell equilibria

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Jul 03, 2011 8:50 pm

Once again the GBPJPY M30 chart unplugged with chaos tools.

The arrows indicate turbulences detected with a highly sensitive tool based on a big sample.

A turbulence on a black candle means a selling activity (turbulent selling).

A turbulence on a white candle means a buying activity (turbulent buying).

I started from the lowest low of this chart and moved until Friday close.

The best buy was @ 128.74.

The best sell was @ 129.53.

For the Friday close the best sell has a floating -33 pips loss.
For the Friday close the best buy has a floating +112 pips profit.

The most interesting thing is that half-way from the best sell-best buy levels
is the line @ 129.14. In that region the floating profit from the best buy was equal to the floating profit from the best sell.

This line is an equilibrium line.

Kindly observe that the equilibrium line was the region of a serious battle eventually won by the buyers (until Friday close).

In classical terms equilibria can be found based on best buys and best sells
to establish important support/resistance.

The strength of buyers in this particular case was highlighted by their ability to keep M30 closes above the equilibrium line.

Also note that the sequences of turbulences represented by arrows are not random but exhibit a special order and are indicative of market intentions or efforts (intentions/efforts are not quite the same as a trend).

It is obvious that during the development of some market changes, the equilibrium line will be moving until a certain level. (which is not a repainting of any kind). It is a new piece of information to be used in our strategy. At some point of the time the line will become fixed and then we may observe a battle for positions on nearing it.

In the given example the equilibrium line was first @ 129.10, then it moved to 129.14. Until now it remains there unchanged.

I am shure that the concept of equilibria does make sense and can facilitate trading very much.
Attachments
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Paul&Paul
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the concept of best buy/best sell equilibria

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Jul 03, 2011 9:38 pm

The best buy and the best sell on GBPUSD
and its equilibrium level.
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GBPJPY

Postby Paul&Paul » Tue Jul 05, 2011 1:08 am

GBPJPY updated.
New candles are added and new arrows. The arrows mark detected turbulences. GBPJPY is full of arrows up. The only one new turbulence down shifted the best sell from 129.78 to 129.92.

The equilibrium line moved from 129.26 to 129.34. This equilibrium line is approaching the UPO level @ 129.38.

GBPJPY has been stubbornly trying to break higher. The arrows cannot mislead. They come from the world of chaos. In a way they resemble an orientation of a vector field. Something is happening in the system. There is not the least doubt that this orientation is due to some forces, and those forces repeat trials
to break higher. The process is not random. This consolidation is not random either, though we are frequently told that during a consolidation we do with a lot of conflicting interests/powers, or, sometimes we are told that the market is moving on an idle gear. This cannot be true. It is there in front of your eyes, that this consolidation is a boiling pot, not a vessel of lukewarm water.
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Paul&Paul
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GBPJPY just breaking higher

Postby Paul&Paul » Tue Jul 05, 2011 1:44 am

And there it is.
Right in front of you, GBPJPY breaking higher, after a series of so many efforts.
Someone wanted GBPJPY hiogher and there it is.

The most important thing is that you could see it was a boiling pot minutes ago and hours ago. Some kind of a nuclear reactor.

Chaos reveals incredible things.

Normally traders use a guess work and give 50/50 chance which direction the market will go from a consolidation. The direction is thus determined by them when a high or a low of the consolidation area are broken. Frequently, they grudge upon false breaks.

Chaos reveals, that a consolidation has its unique orientation, detected with
special tools. You cannot know the magnetic vector field orientation, unless
you use a trick.

Here the trick was watching the arrows of turbulent flow.
I am shure this is the first time you have seen a directionally oriented consolidation in the financial market.

... and when the kettle is off GBPJPY steadies lower...
Attachments
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Paul&Paul
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GBPJPY exploded higher

Postby Paul&Paul » Tue Jul 05, 2011 10:23 am

GBPJPY exploded higher. This was evident hours before as in front of your eyes enveiled a directionally oriented consolidation.

Really a splendid piece of physics in a financial market.
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