My new chaos findings implemented in forex trading

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Paul&Paul
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Attempt to analyse EURJPY, GBPJPY, USDJPY at doomshour

Postby Paul&Paul » Fri Mar 11, 2011 7:57 pm

Next I will attempt to analyse the behavior of the yen markets shortly before and after the earthquake. Second time (after New Zealand), the question is whether the behavior of the (financial) crowd had shown any sixth sense before the disaster happened.

First EURJPY.
Seven hours before the earthquake there was a clear change of mood, a distinct change of behavior. I marked the area in blue. The overall pressure down suddenly turned into selling the yen. There is nothing subjective in the conclusion. It is a mere statement of facts which are there in the system. I have found evidence that the crowd suddenly, for seven hours wanted to and was selling the yen. The trigger is there and the turbulences that followed until the tremors all confirmed the new direction. In other words, we are probably seeing something like the sixth sense.

Next GBPJPY.
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Paul&Paul
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GBPJPY

Postby Paul&Paul » Fri Mar 11, 2011 8:32 pm

Now GBPJPY. This chart shows that the overall mood changed 6.5 hours before the earthquake. GBPJPY confirms that suddenly the crowd turned into selling the yen.
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USDJPY

Postby Paul&Paul » Fri Mar 11, 2011 8:43 pm

Now USDJPY.
This chart clearly shows a change of mood 5 hours before the earthquake. There was a trigger up and follow through. The crowd was suddenly selling the yen.
All three crosses, EURJPY, GBPJPY and USDJPY showed a sudden change several hours before the tremors. We witnessed consistent behavior on the yen market prior to the disaster.
The aim of this study was to show what happened shortly before, not after the tremors.
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CHFPLN on the agenda

Postby Paul&Paul » Fri Mar 11, 2011 10:11 pm

CHFPLN is on the agenda now. This is something very important for those who took mortgage credits in Swiss francs and face the problem of the foreign exchange risk.
CHFPLN completed 3.5699 of two triggers up. These two very similar targets are 3.1351 and 3.1430. From there CHFPLN slumped to 4.669 of a small trigger down, located at 3.0935.
What should be expected next?
It is the matter of time when CHFPLN goes to 4.669 of those triggers up (3.1580/63). Not immediately, yet these targets are already on the table.

Now, let us see what is there in the history of CHFPLN. The new chart shows that the targets of the triggers up are in the region of a UPO@3.1384. CHFPLN revisited 3.1384 and pierced the line of the UPO. It means that at least one more time CHFPLN is going to cross 3.1384 in the near future, at least 200 pips higher. What else is there? Another UPO@3.1719. The system shows that we should expect another bout of weakness of the Polish zloty against the Swiss franc. Those who can do it, should think about buying CHF while it is still retracing. Actually anything below 3.1351/30 is ways better than 3.1719. Besides, the market may stay relatively high before breaking through 3.1719 in a protracted way. I suggest buying CHFPLN while it is still relatively cheap.
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USDPLN

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat Mar 12, 2011 12:15 pm

USDPLN found support in terms of a bundle of targets 2.8357/37/09 from three independent triggers down- their sources of energy. USDPLN shot up almost to 2.9400 and currently is retracing the new gains. The selling pressure seen on the first chart with data from February 21 and the patterns formed suggest we have most probably had interventions of the Polish National Bank and the Ministry of Finance. Poland struggles both with the internal and the external debt. All those efforts brought short-lived effects. USDPLN is strongly dependent on the EURUSD movements. However, this extraordinary volatility of USDPLN in recent times is welcome by all means, as it allows to discharge rising tensions in the economy.
The second chart shows how much USDPLN is vulnerable to internal and external tensions. USDPLN is currently stable downwards but unstable upwards. In other words, there is more risk the Polish zloty weakens than strenthens. Certainly the retracement under way is mostly due to a bounce off the lows of EURUSD.
4.669 of the trigger down lies at 2.8486 and this is the primary target in near term. It is correct to calculate just where EURUSD will go when USDPLN hits its 4.699 level. A simple calculation gives 1.4022. I will verify this number when I take to EURUSD in a seperate post.
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EURUSD

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat Mar 12, 2011 7:28 pm

EURUSD update.
First pay attention to UPO@1.3951 which is a repeller. The market failed to make a loop and retrace there. Instead, EURUSD dipped lower. This is our first determinant on this chart. EURUSD is going to return to 1.3951 some time in the future.
So far nothing has changed. 1.3951 is going to be taken.
EURUSD dipped more than to 1.3804. In fact it visited as low as 1.3752. Before that EURUSD produced a trigger up with virtually no pips in it. I marked it with a small blue triangle. I mentioned I had encountered many such situations when the market moved in the direction of the trigger. It paid to stick to the suggested idea. Of course, the two triggers up which followed our entry gave a better position and a more comfortable one. But who says that trading is comfortable? The end of the session was marked by completing 4.669 of the trigger in the middle. This is something rather than nothing. Notice that the completion of 4.669 took place at the hour markets are far from being very liquid. The Friday rally produced three UPOs@1.3817, 1.3863, 1.3893. They are our new determinants. It will quite natural revisiting those levels. From Friday close 1.3901 it is 38 and 84 pips. But at the moment there is no new trigger down and the recent developments belong to the triggers up. From USDPLN I calculated one projection up which gave 1.4022 on EURUSD. Indeed, there is enough energy to go there. I marked three targets 1.3981, 1.4009 and 1.4041. They are all above the line of the UPO@1.3951. It means that 1.3951 needs to be broken firmly and also that EURUSD is going to cross that line not just one more time but several times in the future.
What about the low side? EURUSD may retrace even to 1.3817 without a new trigger down. It would be rather be strange though. But a new trigger down will immediately require us to look for projections towards the bottom of the chart. We would short and eye levels like 1.3725, 1.3708 and 1.3679 then.
(A trigger down @1.3893 would yield 1.3819 at 4.669, just to give you an idea. A trigger down @1.3875 would yield 1.3708 at 4.669).
Attachments
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GBPJPY

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat Mar 12, 2011 8:07 pm

Last trigger up eyes @ 132.04 which is 4.669.
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newark18
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Postby newark18 » Sat Mar 12, 2011 9:01 pm

Paul,

No disrespect but who is your intended audience?
Failure is an opportunity to learn.

Paul&Paul
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EURJPY

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Mar 13, 2011 2:17 am

EURJPY completed fifth fractal expansion targeted at 113.10 from two triggers.
Last trigger is up with 4.669=114.00. EURJPY was almost there.
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GBPUSD

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Mar 13, 2011 2:52 am

GBPUSD has done more than 4.669 from the lows which is indicative of going to 1.6111 in the subsequent expansion of the marked trigger.
GBPUSD also came back to a UPO@ 1.6085. Clearly its volatility is remarkable. The rise to 1.6085 is a typical loop after the turbulence.
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