My new chaos findings implemented in forex trading

forex live trades, setups, charts

Moderator: moderators

Paul&Paul
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1210
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 12:29 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

Fibonacci applied to a wavelet (USDCAD)

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Jul 29, 2012 9:23 am

Wavelets can be purposefully crafted to have specific properties that make them useful for signal processing.
Mathematically, the wavelet will resonate if the unknown signal contains information of similar frequency. The unknown signal is the turbulence marked at 1.0212, also known as a UPO (Unstable Periodic Orbit).
Then a wavelet appeared with a maximum amplitude at the low of 1.0170, then it decreaded but not to zero.
The Fibonacci extention was applied to the UPO @ 1.0212 and to the maximum
amplitude of the wavelet (1.0170).
Compare the results on the chart attached.
All Fibo extentions are important here: 161.8
261.8
423.6.
The last one is also the lowest low on Friday.

Independently, two triggers down identified also expanded to near the 423.6 Fibo level. The first trigger of 37 pips expanded 4.669 times its size and the second one (12pips) expanded 14.208 times its size.
Friday ended with a tone down.

Wavelet transforms have advantages over traditional Fourier transforms for representing functions that have discontinuities and sharp peaks, and for accurately deconstructing and reconstructing finite, non-periodic and/or non-stationary signals.

We have seen wavelet contraction and wavelet expansion and the control of chaos.

Of course the Fibonacci expansion is not a novel wavelet transform and it was applied long before the Wavelet Transform Handbook, though under a different name.

The introduction to Wavelets brings us also to the problem of Filtering Methods in Finance and Economics and everyone who is serious about finance business (and trading/analyzing) will have some book in his library.
I suspect that what I show you will not find in them.
Various types of non-stationarities are common in time series data from financial markets. This requires a guide for selecting among numerous tools to deal with the non-stationarity. I proposed a unified treatment of the problem with fast and rigorous tools of chaos.
Attachments
usdcad29.07.gif
usdcad29.07.gif (38.56 KiB) Viewed 1096 times

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

Paul&Paul
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1210
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 12:29 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

A wavelet on USDPLN

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Jul 29, 2012 6:54 pm

Similarly to USDCAD posted today, a wavelet detected on USDPLN expanded with standard Fibonacci yielded interesting results.
Last Friday's low is exactly at 423.6 and 261.8 looks significant by all means.
Fibonacci again calls for a small sliver of our attention.
Friday ended with a tone down.
The nearest UPO from the upside is at 3.4848.
The nearest UPO from the downside is at 3.2630.
Attachments
usdpln29.07.gif
usdpln29.07.gif (40.89 KiB) Viewed 792 times

ForexTiger
rank: <50 posts
rank: <50 posts
Posts: 16
Joined: Thu Aug 19, 2010 4:10 am
Reputation: 0
Gender: Male

Postby ForexTiger » Wed Aug 01, 2012 2:42 am

very interesting analysis. Thanks for all the hard work

Paul&Paul
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1210
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 12:29 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

EURJPY - the way of the samurai

Postby Paul&Paul » Fri Aug 03, 2012 4:18 am

Yen flowed in a great river. Everybody was bowing low. All those homeless Japanese billions knocking around the world had at last found a guiding ideal.
Maybe still believing no gaijin could understand the EURJPY language.
Sudden jerks like the one from August 2 of such an extent are rather rare.
Oddly enough they remind that they happen near or after an important economic data release.
Anyone with a sense of chaos knew immediately that the decision was in the trigger down of 65 pips, pretty big for the matter. The trigger occurred on July 27 and now it expanded to 2.4220=95.06. Very nice indeed but before that EURJPY rose to 3.5699 of a trigger up. Within three hours EURJPY touched first
96.85, then 95.06.
The salon froze in the middle of summer.
Onegai shimasu.
Attachments
eurjpy3.08.gif
eurjpy3.08.gif (38.98 KiB) Viewed 778 times
eurjpy3.08x.gif
eurjpy3.08x.gif (40.77 KiB) Viewed 778 times

Paul&Paul
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1210
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 12:29 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

WIG20 and its wavelet

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Aug 05, 2012 11:51 am

WIG20 made bread rise properly. The houses of the two intriguing objects were not very far apart and they were good neighbors. In fact the trigger up lies within a wavelet marked in blue, its size 29 pips.
For the trigger fractal expansion applied at 9.1299 gave 2186 and someone did not like the smell of tobacco smell in his house. His objection is visible in terms of a sharp decline to 2141. It would have pained the good heart of buyers if the decline had forced them to disbelieve in further rises. But then their heart was moved by a market flutter and soon they were found smoking their new morning pipe.
In the cards there is still 14.208=2231 and at the same time the wavelet already expanded 423.6 according to Fibonacci tools. Three UPOs are there detected. The lowest of 2081 is where it all began.
I presume some captains took their pipes from their mouths and did something with their positions seeing WIG20 so high and grinned a grin.
Attachments
wig205.08.gif
wig205.08.gif (35.28 KiB) Viewed 750 times

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

Paul&Paul
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1210
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 12:29 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

EURUSD

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Aug 05, 2012 12:34 pm

EURUSD.
It wasn't likely to have pretty many players staying in the game after such sharp swings of the market. What's the good of talking, better look at the chart below, seat yourself and look ponderingly into the candles.
All they want is to make the business agreeable to all concerned.
Some readily consented to the chaotic scheme. As to the buyers, they were delighted. Three UPOs at 1.2186, 1.2194 and 1.2257 show their activity.
Friday closed with a tone up, despite a semafor3 standing there.
1.2400 is waiting to be taken. EURUSD looks not a pair to be deterred by difficult navigation.
Attachments
eurusd5.08.gif
eurusd5.08.gif (42.63 KiB) Viewed 748 times

Paul&Paul
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1210
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 12:29 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

GBPUSD

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Aug 05, 2012 4:36 pm

GBPUSD.
Everything that ought to be done has been done.
There are four UPOs from the downside. They gave an unpleasant and uneasy feeling when the market could return to because it ought to have for sure.
The thing is that the market pays as it pleases, as it may be convenient. It is possible to have the money in a lump after some time. Who knows. That is not the way to do business, you may say. I may have been mistaken but I fancied that when GBPUSD retreats then it would not rest near the lowest UPO but dip further. Our mind does not need to be in such a disturbed condition.
It is astonishing how many obstacles can be removed from a man's path if he will make up his mind to give them a good kick. You may find that the market is crowded when you decide too late.
Of course, we need to remember that Friday ended with a tone up and having completed 14.208 of the recent trigger up GBPUSD is unstable upwards.
You may not lose the opportunity of looking into some earlier events.
For that you need to study another chart where I marked an impressive trigger down and a wavelet and Fibonacci is there too applied to the wavelet. .
Attachments
gbpusd5.08.gif
gbpusd5.08.gif (41.46 KiB) Viewed 744 times
gbpusd5.08x.gif
gbpusd5.08x.gif (47.02 KiB) Viewed 744 times

Paul&Paul
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1210
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 12:29 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

Time to go for the USDPLN now

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Aug 05, 2012 4:57 pm

USDPLN.
It was a great deal better for us to know all about USDPLN before it opened again. Friday ended with a tone up.
There may be necessity of leveliing and rolling to be done as USDPLN did not touch exactly 9.1299=3.2759. I insist on this point since chaos is for precision and about precision above all. I also propose to note the marked UPOs, the most obvious determinants of the market. None of which could be not desired or returned to the chaotic storehouse.
The selection and cataloguing of them occupied the rainy afternoon. I cannot help telling you what a great pleasure it is to refer to the 423.6 Fibonacci line
posted some days before.
Attachments
usdpln5.08.gif
usdpln5.08.gif (38.18 KiB) Viewed 743 times

Paul&Paul
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1210
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 12:29 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

DJIA

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:18 pm

DJIA.
Friday ended with a tone up.
9.1299 of the trigger up is at 13145.
The UPOs are marked in red.
There is no reason to suppose DJIA will not return to them.
Attachments
djia5.08.gif
djia5.08.gif (36.27 KiB) Viewed 741 times

Paul&Paul
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1210
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 12:29 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

EURJPY - was one big party on Friday.

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Aug 05, 2012 6:37 pm

EURJPY - was one big party on Friday.
The streets mobbed, and the aged sake was smooth.
The EURJPY resurrected from the recent lows and made some feel good.
What more, it closed above 4.669=97.15 of a trigger up.
However, Friday ended with a tone down. You look at the UPOs and suddenly realize something. Kirei.
Those UPOs are kirei. You could even think about another cognac and vividly remember them when the market drops significantly.
Some day, somebody will mention that optimism is in increasingly short supply.
Attachments
eurjpy5.08.gif
eurjpy5.08.gif (39.94 KiB) Viewed 1468 times

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.


Return to “forex”