Trading sucks!!

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withnail
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Postby withnail » Sun Oct 07, 2012 3:07 pm

Planning gives me confidence. Picking good setups that I am happy with. Defining my loss and potential gain before the trade picking lot size based on MM rules and not feeling. I cannot scalp like ES and make decisions on the fly if I do that my trading decision resemble those of a looser - I tried but I can't do it. If you can't either it doesn't make you a bad trader you just need to find a different way. I am interested what you did before making these trades? I made a couple of charts to show how I would plan. Drawing lines on charts does not always add value I have done it to show how I was thinking/planning on Friday.
GU
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Dollar Index
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Targets Trade potential
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My point is really with some more planning you may be more confident to try for the +70, if your worried about making 18 (moving your stop to be shows that) then you will never make 70. You can only get it if you wanted to get it in the first place not just by seeing it afterwards in my opinion.
Cheers,
Withnail
1. Big loss, 2. Small Loss, 3. Big Win, 4. Small Win --- just prevent 1.

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Postby adaseb » Sun Oct 07, 2012 5:30 pm

I usually HATE positing charts in hindsight because they usually don't teach anything but here are a few pointers.

I don't know why you are complaining, you seem to be getting the general idea. Your entries are good, you just have to work on your exits. I don't know why you complained saying you wasted the last 3-4 years and learnt nothing.

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Postby adaseb » Sun Oct 07, 2012 5:33 pm

Image


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es/pip
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Postby es/pip » Sun Oct 07, 2012 6:41 pm

THIS MAY NOT WORK FOR YOU.

YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE TO TRADE WHAT YOU S
EE.


I am not sure how involved i am going to get with all of this, as everything that i am going to show below i have already shown 10k times on this forum. You are going to have to mold something that works for you.

There is no secret to anything, you are just going to have to spend the time and make it work. You have been doing this for three years, and three years is not s**t. Maybe it will take you 5 years, or even 10 years maybe.

Are you going to keep trying for that long if it does?

How bad you want it will determine whether you get it or not, nothing that i can say or show you will change that.

Again it may take one person 10k hrs of screen time and another person 100k hrs to come to a relatively similar understanding of what they SEE.


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Your first trade:
I would be exiting that short based on my #1. Worst case if you felt good about higher time frames i would move to BE.
Your second trade:
Based on my #4 there is no way i am giving back 18 pips after that happened. Odds are i am reversing that short.
Your third trade:
That is a low % trade based on that topping action, as well as the overall bias based on the higher time frames of being short( see h4 chart below).
Your 4th trade:
I see nothing wrong with taking that off for 10 there, i would have prob done the same. If you were short biased for that move there was another spot to get back in on my # 6. You can combine those bars in your head and see that momentum there, or look at it on a m30 and it was a good momentum playImage, and then you can see that it was a supply on a m1 inside of that. Image






If i was trading that chart i would have probably done this.

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On the Yellow arrow ( on the chart above) i would have been looking inside at this.
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during that consolidation before it started moving out of the range i would have either not taken those trades or taken them with small targets based on the range. IE, i would be taking 5-10 tick targets and just playing the range. Once it starting moving my targets for the trades would expand based on the new PA. No way to know because i do not trade this market and it wasn't in real time, but i see a good 60-100 ticks in all of that PA just taking full exits.

In that PA i would have been taking full exits on targets based on the contraction of the PA ( range). Once it expanded i probably would have taken partial exits on the short side and scaled back in and out as it unfolded, as it was clearly bearish. It is possible i would have been all in all out on all of those short trades, no way to know without trading it at the time. Would just depend on how i felt about it all as it unfolded.

And i would have no doubt have had a few small losses and BE on some of that i am sure. But i would not give back much at all once it goes my way. If you are going to scalp then you need to scalp, if you are going to try and swing it then you need to swing it. SCALPING IS NOT EASY, AND IS NOT FOR EVERYONE. It just is all different each time based on what is happening and what the ranges from s/r to s/r are.

Then you could have done this.

Image



You could also go out to the weekly and monthly and get a further idea of where we are and what is happening.

I trade both ways. I scalp what happens intraday, but i am also trading longer time frames. I see no reason not to do both as 6E can handle some decent size and obviously ES can handle a s**t load more.

Trading longer time frames is much easier to do. You said that you need to increase the account now and and cannot trade longer time frames. i say, that if scalping does not work for you, then take a look at what MO is showing and apply that to medium term charts. I would try what he has shown but i am too set in my ways at this point.
Bend over and assume the position for another 4 years of hope and change.

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Postby es/pip » Sun Oct 07, 2012 6:51 pm

And all of the above is hindsight, and i very well could have read it totally different at the time. But that would be my view on it.

Everything changes just based on how i feel in real time. Sometimes i look back at the days action and i may have had a huge winning trade in a certain area. If i look back at that area i sometimes cannot understand why i even made that trade at all. At the time it happened i felt something based on how it all felt at the time and made that decision.

It is not a if this then do that type of thing.
Bend over and assume the position for another 4 years of hope and change.

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Postby es/pip » Sun Oct 07, 2012 6:51 pm

dbl
Bend over and assume the position for another 4 years of hope and change.

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Postby adaseb » Sun Oct 07, 2012 9:04 pm

es/pip wrote:And all of the above is hindsight, and i very well could have read it totally different at the time. But that would be my view on it.

Everything changes just based on how i feel in real time. Sometimes i look back at the days action and i may have had a huge winning trade in a certain area. If i look back at that area i sometimes cannot understand why i even made that trade at all. At the time it happened i felt something based on how it all felt at the time and made that decision.

It is not a if this then do that type of thing.


I agree. I've been preaching for years that the number #1 reason why traders lose money is because they spend too much time on forums trying to master someone elses method.

There is a HUGE gap between a theoretical trade and an actual trade.

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Postby prochargedmopar » Sun Oct 07, 2012 11:24 pm

adaseb wrote:
es/pip wrote:And all of the above is hindsight, and i very well could have read it totally different at the time. But that would be my view on it.

Everything changes just based on how i feel in real time. Sometimes i look back at the days action and i may have had a huge winning trade in a certain area. If i look back at that area i sometimes cannot understand why i even made that trade at all. At the time it happened i felt something based on how it all felt at the time and made that decision.

It is not a if this then do that type of thing.


I agree. I've been preaching for years that the number #1 reason why traders lose money is because they spend too much time on forums trying to master someone elses method.

There is a HUGE gap between a theoretical trade and an actual trade.

Image


I use to agree with hindsight charts being a waste of time.
Not anymore.
History repeats.
They are an aid to help one formulate a plan for future trades.
Where did buyers buy before? Where did they sell? What is the current interest(strength of sentiment) in buying or selling? ect.
#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!
Trading Bible here> therumpledone/the-ideas-that-i-trade-by-t3256/page1670

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Postby paweldobkowski » Mon Oct 08, 2012 12:48 am

FXfreak wrote:@paweldobkowski

--------------------------
It really comes down to emotions.
--------------------------

This is right and wrong. Sure, if you are unable to control your emotions then nothing will work. BUT the MOST IMPORTANT THING is: You have to know what you are doing. So: I need rules! Rules make me confident. Confidence helps to control the emotions.

So the main thing is: I need rules which have an edge!


I dont mean this kind of emotions.

What I ment was really more of a "mindset", things like:

1) You dont hope you really trade what is happening at the moment
2) You feel confident about puting on a trade (dont metter if its going to be a winner or a loser)
3) Your losers / winners dont affect Your future decisions - every trade is a different event ALTHOUGH You know that trading is a process

And one thing that is INDESCRIBABLE in my opinion. There are moments when You get "in the zone" and You get that feeling that You just cant fckn lose. You just have to trade. Im mainly a scalper so it's probably a little different for me but I think it is possible to be easily winning the same way as 95% are constantly losing.

Of course it is really hard to disassociate Yourself from money and Your ego. Even though You might think You're doing it it's still affecting Your decisions.

You (and almost everyone) probably see Yourself as a rational person and You think that Your trading is also rational and objective. Lets give some examples based on Your trades:

trade 1)
Good entry. Stop move to BE. Probably the most common irrational decision in trading of all time. It ONLY gives You fake safe feeling that You cant lose on a trade BUT You took the initial risk so it's risking money for 0 profit most of the time.

Remember that You trade against some guys that are for example 30 years in the game and they can move the market. They know where You move Your stops and also entry price almost always has no technical relevance. It's better to take 2 - 3 pips than to HOPE that the market will turn and miss Your stop by few ticks.

also You are trading ZLs and You got ZLed on the first one.

What I do is I exit a trade if it misses my target by a few pips / ticks OR I look for a setup in opposite direction and it was there.

trade 2) Once again good entry! But You gave it all back again. Watch out for extremes. Double top formed and You were HOPING that it'll continue anyway. You had no momo UP. If those trades are based on M15 than first targets should be first M15 zones. Price SHOULD stop there and if market PROVES that it wants to go further than You hold. Based on facts not expectations.

trade 3) Risky trade. Profit margin was small but it's possible that I would take it also. s**t happens. The only thing that would do different is that I wont take a full stop on that one.

trade 4) Out of frustration probably You just settled for +10 on this one and I think that actually it was a good place to exit. You could have hold it because price closed strongly in Your favor etc. But that's just hindsight talk.

You cant count on trades to be that big so that +70 really doesnt metter. You can always reenter. It's not like price moved +70 because of reaction to Your level. Sellers need to exceed buyers on every level of that move and You cant really predict that.

Homeruns are RARE and that exit dont change nothing.
It was a good trade.

Actually it looks like You're basing Your entries on facts and exits on emotions.
_________________________________________________________

To sum that UP

Market is objective if You scroll through the past and it WILL be objective in the future. When You use tools like ZLs, MOMOS, SRs, EXTREMES, SDs You know the edge and YOU GOT IT. You dont need more information. The only thing that stops us from trading it profitably with no effort are ourselves.

Even if You trade demo account there is a part in every human that wants to be right and that also stands in the way of objectively viewing the market in real time. Also trading demo comes together with that excitement that if You start winning there You can start winning real money. Problems with trading with real money are obvious.


Stop concentrating on negatives because You're just going to get more of them this way. Think of ways how to solve the problem. What I did and it really helped me out is I traded like it's a game. The fact is that You learn more while You're having fun. I hided the money lowered my lots and started trading for points. Like every other game. I just reframed that s**t. I dont know if I'll help but the point is YOU NEED TO SHIFT YOUR THINKING. Otherwise You will be getting the same results.


edit

fck me that is long :shock:
sorry for any mistakes

FXfreak
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Postby FXfreak » Mon Oct 08, 2012 7:08 pm

@withnail

Thanks for your post. Your trading style looks for high potential trades with low risk and high reward based on higher timeframes with the help of the dollar index and perhaps the COT report. I will try this kind of high probability trading after I found out that I'm unable to trade the lower timeframes like M15/M5. Are your profitable with your method?


@paweldobkowski

Thanks for your posting. Are you a profitable trader?

@adaseb
Thanks for the info. I also read a lot from you and I always asked myself if you are a profitable trader. Your trades looked like my trades but I always was thinking that you were on the learning track like me.

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