Taking off the blindfold

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forexbob
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Re: Taking off the blindfold

Postby forexbob » Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:24 pm

LeMercenaire wrote:
BlindMan wrote:Hope you all had a nice Christmas!

Back on topic a little bit. I'm working on a few ideas regarding trade management, with the concept of "price moving away from a line". The set & forget approach never worked, so it's a good time to rethink trade management, and ways to actively manage a trade. I don't expect it to work, but I expect to learn from it. Will post again soon :idea: .


To paraphrase Mighty One: ''If you're in a running trade and not wiling to add into it, you may as well just close it.''

Once you realise the power of that concept, you will be well on your way to your goal.


yep , (lot)size matters .. trade less make more.

although i understood MO, i never got the grasp with their eights indi.

lately done some coding on an indi which tells me how much i may add.
idea is that for example i go short eurusd at 1.15 and i have moved my sl to 1.1473
and price is now at 1.1441 and i want to add, how much can i add so that the sl of the new trade is also 1.1473
and the whole (all trades) is at break even.

so only risking floating locked in(by sl) opm (still a risk because price can speed over your sl)

now testing it, and still a little rough(not taken in account swap&commission)

b4 i did some calc in excel, which is clumsy and messed things up.

maybe such indicator already exist, but couldn't find anything ...

time to "Taking off the brakes" .... and now without accidents.

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Re: Taking off the blindfold

Postby aliassmith » Fri Dec 28, 2018 2:38 pm

forexbob wrote:
LeMercenaire wrote:
BlindMan wrote:Hope you all had a nice Christmas!

Back on topic a little bit. I'm working on a few ideas regarding trade management, with the concept of "price moving away from a line". The set & forget approach never worked, so it's a good time to rethink trade management, and ways to actively manage a trade. I don't expect it to work, but I expect to learn from it. Will post again soon :idea: .


To paraphrase Mighty One: ''If you're in a running trade and not wiling to add into it, you may as well just close it.''

Once you realise the power of that concept, you will be well on your way to your goal.


yep , (lot)size matters .. trade less make more.

although i understood MO, i never got the grasp with their eights indi.

lately done some coding on an indi which tells me how much i may add.
idea is that for example i go short eurusd at 1.15 and i have moved my sl to 1.1473
and price is now at 1.1441 and i want to add, how much can i add so that the sl of the new trade is also 1.1473
and the whole (all trades) is at break even.

so only risking floating locked in(by sl) opm (still a risk because price can speed over your sl)

now testing it, and still a little rough(not taken in account swap&commission)

b4 i did some calc in excel, which is clumsy and messed things up.

maybe such indicator already exist, but couldn't find anything ...

time to "Taking off the brakes" .... and now without accidents.


Sounds like something I have seen futurestrader71 use when trading futures. Looks useful.
Trade Your Way as Long as It Makes Money!

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Re: Taking off the blindfold

Postby TheRumpledOne » Fri Dec 28, 2018 7:04 pm

KEEP IT SIMPLE!

Separate CONCEPTS from REALITY.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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Re: Taking off the blindfold

Postby BlindMan » Sun Dec 30, 2018 10:38 pm

TheRumpledOne wrote:KEEP IT SIMPLE!

Separate CONCEPTS from REALITY.


Hi TRO, thanks for commenting on my thread (means a lot!)

I've tried keeping it as simple as possible, and I really mean that, but maybe I've oversimplified things in the past.

The first thing I tried after throwing all the indicators out of the window, was trading with a horizontal line following the daily candle color. But then again, my exits were always the issue. "When should I exit?" Tried grabbing 10 pips, with 1:1, 2:1, grabbing 5 pips, 1 pip (each over a peroid of time, I wasn't changing things every day), but at the end of the week I was red more often than not. Not by a whole lot, the winners made up for the losers but the comission+spread added up (and this was even more evident when going for 1 pip). Tried this same exit approach with other methods.

And I did all that very diligently, letting the trade play out without closing it too early or too late. For this I would set the order with a predefined SL and TP so that I could take my hands off the mouse to avoid emotional clicks, one way or another. The SL would usually be at a place where it'd make sense (like at the other end of a zone, at the open line, etc. depending on the method). And the TP was (poorly) built around a 1:1, 2:1 or whichever R:R ratio I was trying out. And I believe that is my problem.

Going for a fixed R:R based on my SL didn't work. So, how do I fix that? How do I build an "exit plan" that makes sense, that I can write down and follow strictly (to avoid emotional exits) without looking at something else? Something that could give me a "according to my plan, it'd make sense to exit now" / at X level". It's not about complicating things but I believe I'm missing something or that my old approach might've been too simple. And that's why I'm trying to look closely at the chart. If this isn't the approach, then I'm truly lost here :| .

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Re: Taking off the blindfold

Postby TheRumpledOne » Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:37 am

Check out my EXIT PLAY BOOK.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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Re: Taking off the blindfold

Postby BlindMan » Mon Dec 31, 2018 5:16 pm

TheRumpledOne wrote:Check out my EXIT PLAY BOOK.


I just did that, thanks for the video TRO. Will post later about it.

I was just dropping by to wish a happy new year to everyone who might be watching this thread so, happy new year!

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Re: Taking off the blindfold

Postby Mr. Hyde » Tue Jan 01, 2019 3:17 am

BlindMan wrote:Not entirely related to what I was talking about, but watching the pair and drawing lines I saw this, just some food for thought I guess.

line.png

The UC moves 90~ pips per day on average.
Price tends to move away from a line.

How am I not being able to capture some of that movement?

I've always played around with 1:1, 1:1.5, 1:2, 2:1, and running that structure for long series of trades, asking myself "would this work?", only to get to break even at the end. After getting the same results over and over, I came to the realization that it'll never work if I do it like that.

After watching at these charts, the "cut your losses short and let your winners run" statement makes much more sense.

I think I've always neglected trade management, or well, proper trade management. Setting a SL with risk attached to it is just risk management, not trade management. Well, took some time to realize that #-o . I was listening to a Linda Raschke interview the other day, and she said "you could take random entries, and turn it into a profitable strategy with proper trade management." And then I remembered TRO stating that you could trade with an Einstein line with a positive outcome (basically you draw a horizontal line when you turn on your platform at the current price and trade off that).

Ideas to cut losers short:
- Use smaller positions instead of using super tight stops, and use that size to add later on if the trade goes my way.
- Close if it doesn't go my way after some time, because it means the idea didn't play out.
- Closing and re-entering with smaller size is better than closing and re-entering with larger size.


Since you mentioned UC. Kind of a perfect storm developing between the 3. All three charts are either at a line or were at a line for a trader to trade from.
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Re: Taking off the blindfold

Postby LeMercenaire » Tue Jan 01, 2019 11:20 am

Mr. Hyde wrote:
BlindMan wrote:Not entirely related to what I was talking about, but watching the pair and drawing lines I saw this, just some food for thought I guess.

line.png

The UC moves 90~ pips per day on average.
Price tends to move away from a line.

How am I not being able to capture some of that movement?

I've always played around with 1:1, 1:1.5, 1:2, 2:1, and running that structure for long series of trades, asking myself "would this work?", only to get to break even at the end. After getting the same results over and over, I came to the realization that it'll never work if I do it like that.

After watching at these charts, the "cut your losses short and let your winners run" statement makes much more sense.

I think I've always neglected trade management, or well, proper trade management. Setting a SL with risk attached to it is just risk management, not trade management. Well, took some time to realize that #-o . I was listening to a Linda Raschke interview the other day, and she said "you could take random entries, and turn it into a profitable strategy with proper trade management." And then I remembered TRO stating that you could trade with an Einstein line with a positive outcome (basically you draw a horizontal line when you turn on your platform at the current price and trade off that).

Ideas to cut losers short:
- Use smaller positions instead of using super tight stops, and use that size to add later on if the trade goes my way.
- Close if it doesn't go my way after some time, because it means the idea didn't play out.
- Closing and re-entering with smaller size is better than closing and re-entering with larger size.


Since you mentioned UC. Kind of a perfect storm developing between the 3. All three charts are either at a line or were at a line for a trader to trade from.


Oooooohhh...them thar's some purdy lines!

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Re: Taking off the blindfold

Postby Mr. Hyde » Wed Jan 02, 2019 12:13 pm

LeMercenaire wrote:
Mr. Hyde wrote:
BlindMan wrote:Not entirely related to what I was talking about, but watching the pair and drawing lines I saw this, just some food for thought I guess.

line.png

The UC moves 90~ pips per day on average.
Price tends to move away from a line.

How am I not being able to capture some of that movement?

I've always played around with 1:1, 1:1.5, 1:2, 2:1, and running that structure for long series of trades, asking myself "would this work?", only to get to break even at the end. After getting the same results over and over, I came to the realization that it'll never work if I do it like that.

After watching at these charts, the "cut your losses short and let your winners run" statement makes much more sense.

I think I've always neglected trade management, or well, proper trade management. Setting a SL with risk attached to it is just risk management, not trade management. Well, took some time to realize that #-o . I was listening to a Linda Raschke interview the other day, and she said "you could take random entries, and turn it into a profitable strategy with proper trade management." And then I remembered TRO stating that you could trade with an Einstein line with a positive outcome (basically you draw a horizontal line when you turn on your platform at the current price and trade off that).

Ideas to cut losers short:
- Use smaller positions instead of using super tight stops, and use that size to add later on if the trade goes my way.
- Close if it doesn't go my way after some time, because it means the idea didn't play out.
- Closing and re-entering with smaller size is better than closing and re-entering with larger size.


Since you mentioned UC. Kind of a perfect storm developing between the 3. All three charts are either at a line or were at a line for a trader to trade from.


Oooooohhh...them thar's some purdy lines!


Im a real fan of the lines on the euro. The red lines show the pivots, blue show the reversal pattern and the 1st blue box is the pause and go then the top blue box is supply. Been in long since 1.1300 (while hegding short when price made it to the top pivot line). Not only do I look for price to close beyond a line now adays, I look for a second bar to open and close out of it. Also a idea I have been playing with is a false breakout signaling the way price isn't going. Think about it. Big boys love to push price in the wrong directiuon to collect stops then turn price back the way they want to go. You can see that clearly on the euro and dollar index. Kind of a nice heads ups.
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Re: Taking off the blindfold

Postby Mr. Hyde » Wed Jan 02, 2019 4:06 pm

Starting the new year off right. 350 pip gain. 1 trade was selling the low of the pin bar at the 50% retracement. Next was the break of the rectangle or a zline, 3rd trade was another zline and the 4th was just a simple breakout play. Exit was the length of the pole of the rectangle. Had a few zline plays on the ES. The moves are crazy on it right now. Hope everyone has an amazing 2019 and makes as many zeros as they want.
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