Taking off the blindfold

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LeMercenaire
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Re: Taking off the blindfold

Postby LeMercenaire » Mon Dec 24, 2018 5:14 pm

tom7ak wrote:ByOrSl.png

Would you buy or sell there? Why and where?

I'd be selling at the close of the second long red candle.

I see the Z-Line as the very bottom of the drop to the left. That means my test+retest area for my entry is on that red candle.

It is possible I would be into scalping around the area of your marked horizontal line if I was around at the time and fancied some action.

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Re: Taking off the blindfold

Postby BlindMan » Mon Dec 24, 2018 7:15 pm

Not entirely related to what I was talking about, but watching the pair and drawing lines I saw this, just some food for thought I guess.

line.png
line.png (44.5 KiB) Viewed 645 times


The UC moves 90~ pips per day on average.
Price tends to move away from a line.

How am I not being able to capture some of that movement?

I've always played around with 1:1, 1:1.5, 1:2, 2:1, and running that structure for long series of trades, asking myself "would this work?", only to get to break even at the end. After getting the same results over and over, I came to the realization that it'll never work if I do it like that.

After watching at these charts, the "cut your losses short and let your winners run" statement makes much more sense.

I think I've always neglected trade management, or well, proper trade management. Setting a SL with risk attached to it is just risk management, not trade management. Well, took some time to realize that #-o . I was listening to a Linda Raschke interview the other day, and she said "you could take random entries, and turn it into a profitable strategy with proper trade management." And then I remembered TRO stating that you could trade with an Einstein line with a positive outcome (basically you draw a horizontal line when you turn on your platform at the current price and trade off that).

Ideas to cut losers short:
- Use smaller positions instead of using super tight stops, and use that size to add later on if the trade goes my way.
- Close if it doesn't go my way after some time, because it means the idea didn't play out.
- Closing and re-entering with smaller size is better than closing and re-entering with larger size.

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LeMercenaire
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Re: Taking off the blindfold

Postby LeMercenaire » Tue Dec 25, 2018 11:34 am

As this is the thread that is active at the moment, I thought I'd drop in here and wish everyone a very Merry Christmas!

Enjoy yourselves wherever you are in the world.

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Re: Taking off the blindfold

Postby LeMercenaire » Tue Dec 25, 2018 11:36 am

BlindMan wrote:Not entirely related to what I was talking about, but watching the pair and drawing lines I saw this, just some food for thought I guess.

line.png

The UC moves 90~ pips per day on average.
Price tends to move away from a line.

How am I not being able to capture some of that movement?


I've always played around with 1:1, 1:1.5, 1:2, 2:1, and running that structure for long series of trades, asking myself "would this work?", only to get to break even at the end. After getting the same results over and over, I came to the realization that it'll never work if I do it like that.

After watching at these charts, the "cut your losses short and let your winners run" statement makes much more sense.

I think I've always neglected trade management, or well, proper trade management. Setting a SL with risk attached to it is just risk management, not trade management. Well, took some time to realize that #-o . I was listening to a Linda Raschke interview the other day, and she said "you could take random entries, and turn it into a profitable strategy with proper trade management." And then I remembered TRO stating that you could trade with an Einstein line with a positive outcome (basically you draw a horizontal line when you turn on your platform at the current price and trade off that).

Ideas to cut losers short:
- Use smaller positions instead of using super tight stops, and use that size to add later on if the trade goes my way.
- Close if it doesn't go my way after some time, because it means the idea didn't play out.
- Closing and re-entering with smaller size is better than closing and re-entering with larger size.


UC is the star performer in my Dead Zone method, precisely for the reasons you state. It is rock-solid and produces profit day in, day out.

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Re: Taking off the blindfold

Postby tom7ak » Wed Dec 26, 2018 11:44 pm

BlindMan wrote:The way I see momentum, is a fast and strong move in one direction (relative to the previous movement). It could be a breakout, depending on what level it's breaking out from. A major level? A previous high / low, a previous bar high / low? It depends I guess on how you look at the chart.


you have a definition of momentum. I think this is already a very good position to be in. Would you be able (using your definition) to mark momentum in a consistent way and then execute trades without doubts or second-guessing?

take a look at LeMs post about momentum and breakouts. So simple, yet so beautiful, shiny little nugget. what is it saying? If we to follow it what do we buy or sell?

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Re: Taking off the blindfold

Postby tom7ak » Wed Dec 26, 2018 11:57 pm

BlindMan wrote:
Kinda playing a "where did come from and were did it go" idea. That's what I'd do (maybe :roll: ). At the area you marked, there was a wick that touched the line, then reversed (at the point where I would've exited the trade, fading the line). I don't see a clear entry to short or long from there to be honest. Again, this is a beginner's chart reading, so any inputs are appreciated.

There's also a strong move to the downside at the beginning of the chart, so I'd like to scroll a bit further back as well :shock: .


When i played with some various ideas - maybe and kind of didn't do a trick. I`d be winning just to lose it all and more when i got confused and had no plan how to get out. The ideas here in Kreslik are great but still, IMO they have to be translated into a solid plan.

BTW considered blue and red line on a chart, I'd be only looking at selling in the area marked by the star.

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Re: Taking off the blindfold

Postby forexbob » Thu Dec 27, 2018 12:04 am

Hi,

posting here just because it lately is a little silent on this galaxy, and was just the last active thread....

just for now a little music in between xmas and the beginning of 2019.

https://youtu.be/58IXKmyl_HY

so 2 all visitors and silent residents in this galaxy,

a happy and healthy 2019 !

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LeMercenaire
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Re: Taking off the blindfold

Postby LeMercenaire » Thu Dec 27, 2018 12:34 am

forexbob wrote:Hi,

posting here just because it lately is a little silent on this galaxy, and was just the last active thread....

just for now a little music in between xmas and the beginning of 2019.

https://youtu.be/58IXKmyl_HY

so 2 all visitors and silent residents in this galaxy,

a happy and healthy 2019 !


Right back at ya'! I have a feeling Kreslik will build again in the New Year - I know I certainly will be looking to fire things up again. Hope you guys here will join me on the ride :D

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Re: Taking off the blindfold

Postby BlindMan » Thu Dec 27, 2018 3:16 pm

Hope you all had a nice Christmas!

Back on topic a little bit. I'm working on a few ideas regarding trade management, with the concept of "price moving away from a line". The set & forget approach never worked, so it's a good time to rethink trade management, and ways to actively manage a trade. I don't expect it to work, but I expect to learn from it. Will post again soon :idea: .

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Re: Taking off the blindfold

Postby LeMercenaire » Thu Dec 27, 2018 5:52 pm

BlindMan wrote:Hope you all had a nice Christmas!

Back on topic a little bit. I'm working on a few ideas regarding trade management, with the concept of "price moving away from a line". The set & forget approach never worked, so it's a good time to rethink trade management, and ways to actively manage a trade. I don't expect it to work, but I expect to learn from it. Will post again soon :idea: .


To paraphrase Mighty One: ''If you're in a running trade and not wiling to add into it, you may as well just close it.''

Once you realise the power of that concept, you will be well on your way to your goal.

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