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razorboy
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Postby razorboy » Wed Jun 10, 2009 3:37 pm

short of getting good at reading price action - solid money management and a regular entry signal is really the only solution.

are some signals "better" than others? Maybe, but I dont think I would be alone in saying that you could probably find some historic fibo/support/high/low confluence at practically every point on a chart - gets confusing after a while - so you have to screen a bunch out - that is all FXtravller is doing - flitering out what he considers noise

At everyone one of those pivot lines or mid pivot lines, I can probably come up with good reasons to go both short and long, but ya gotta pick one.

I have seen enough "forex training videos" where "experts" pick out trades on a historical chart or explain why a trade "didnt" work - from a historical perspective (there was resistance there, a fibo here, blah, blah, blah) - that pretty easy to do. I've also seen trades that "were supposed to work" do just the opposite

So why MR1 and SR1? Why not MR1 and SR1?



noone22 wrote:
Fxtraveller wrote:Simply enter when price reaches the MS1 OR MR1.
BUY when price reaches MR1
SELL when price reaches MS1


What is so special about MR1 and MS1?
Why mid-pivots, not just usual S1 and R1 or usual pivots?
And what lies behind the fact, that
if price reaches MR1 - it will continue rising -
statistics or guess or something else?

I won't blindly take any system without solid confirmation
and waste time trying to prove, that I can be breakeven
(in the best scenario) with it.
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!

http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

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Fxtraveller
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Postby Fxtraveller » Wed Jun 10, 2009 10:47 pm

"I won't blindly take any system without solid confirmation
and waste time trying to prove, that I can be breakeven
(in the best scenario) with it."

Thats a great way of thinking.
Good luck with your trading.
Last edited by Fxtraveller on Wed Jun 10, 2009 11:37 pm, edited 3 times in total.

Fxtraveller
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Postby Fxtraveller » Wed Jun 10, 2009 11:02 pm

razorboy,
thanks for the martingales reminder. the author of this method on fxfactory suggests a max of 2 double ups, and then restart if all 3 failed. yeap, thats a big gamble, thats why im still demoing this method.
Im tired of trying various methods on my live that just wipe out my long term carry trade profits....

"So why MR1 and SR1? Why not MR1 and SR1? "

exactly ....
but on top of that, the authors idea is that if Price below pivot point- trend is down (at least short term), above PP- trend is up.
entering at MR1 and MS1 (+/- few pips), having Pivot point as SL, and R1 and S1 as TP, provides the method with a 1:1 ratio.

The whole idea and all the different approaches that may be applied can be found at the link in POST #2 of this thread.
Here it is :
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=170790

I just adapted the method to suit ME.

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Postby razorboy » Thu Jun 11, 2009 12:09 am

I read through is posts and for the most part there is nothing new there that you could not have picked up here


What I have found with the horizontal lines is that more often than not it turns out i should have bought when I sold or limit entered rather than market entered but in the end it is the risk free trades and controlled systematic entry points that have you coming out ahead.

Not that I have ever tested it, but I suspect that if you went long at the beginning of every hour with good money management like you have described, the worst you would do is probably break even

quote="Fxtraveller"]razorboy,
thanks for the martingales reminder. the author of this method on fxfactory suggests a max of 2 double ups, and then restart if all 3 failed. yeap, thats a big gamble, thats why im still demoing this method.
Im tired of trying various methods on my live that just wipe out my long term carry trade profits....

"So why MR1 and SR1? Why not MR1 and SR1? "

exactly ....
but on top of that, the authors idea is that if Price below pivot point- trend is down (at least short term), above PP- trend is up.
entering at MR1 and MS1 (+/- few pips), having Pivot point as SL, and R1 and S1 as TP, provides the method with a 1:1 ratio.

The whole idea and all the different approaches that may be applied can be found at the link in POST #2 of this thread.
Here it is :
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=170790

I just adapted the method to suit ME.[/quote]
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!



http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Thu Jun 11, 2009 3:51 am

Martingale is suicide...

More risk is only more risk

More profit is more profit

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Fxtraveller
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Postby Fxtraveller » Thu Jun 11, 2009 10:11 am

Eur/Jpy: +60 + 0.
In reality my 1/3rd trade hit a S/L, which only proves that the trailing stop does not work while PC is shut, so with a TS of 25 it should have been +5 pips.

Gbp/Usd: -25 pips. I've put just 1 lot, and yes, trade failed again because hit during asian session, and yes, a success during london session.
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Fxtraveller
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Postby Fxtraveller » Thu Jun 11, 2009 10:13 am

Eur/Jpy: +60 + 0.
In reality my 1/3rd trade hit a S/L, which only proves that the trailing stop does not work while PC is shut, so with a TS of 25 it should have been +5 pips.

Gbp/Usd: -25 pips. I've put just 1 lot, and yes, trade failed again because hit during asian session, and yes, a success during london session.
Attachments
eurjpy.gif
eurjpy.gif (16.28 KiB) Viewed 183 times
gbpusd.gif
Hail, o mighty London session, during which I sleep...
gbpusd.gif (15.16 KiB) Viewed 183 times

Fxtraveller
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Postby Fxtraveller » Thu Jun 11, 2009 10:41 am

razorboy wrote:I read through is posts and for the most part there is nothing new there that you could not have picked up here


What I have found with the horizontal lines is that more often than not it turns out i should have bought when I sold or limit entered rather than market entered but in the end it is the risk free trades and controlled systematic entry points that have you coming out ahead.

Not that I have ever tested it, but I suspect that if you went long at the beginning of every hour with good money management like you have described, the worst you would do is probably break even

quote="Fxtraveller"]razorboy,
thanks for the martingales reminder. the author of this method on fxfactory suggests a max of 2 double ups, and then restart if all 3 failed. yeap, thats a big gamble, thats why im still demoing this method.
Im tired of trying various methods on my live that just wipe out my long term carry trade profits....

"So why MR1 and SR1? Why not MR1 and SR1? "

exactly ....
but on top of that, the authors idea is that if Price below pivot point- trend is down (at least short term), above PP- trend is up.
entering at MR1 and MS1 (+/- few pips), having Pivot point as SL, and R1 and S1 as TP, provides the method with a 1:1 ratio.

The whole idea and all the different approaches that may be applied can be found at the link in POST #2 of this thread.
Here it is :
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=170790

I just adapted the method to suit ME.
[/quote]

so far I have picked on quite a few things. Yes, I dont learn fresh new things everyday like I used to when I first found this site.

And just recently, randomly, I clicked TRO's link about VSA, and learned what is scaling in, which is a rather interesting technique that could be used.
You never know whats coming, so I keep my eye open =]
+ I'd rather stay at kreslik, since most of the info I find is useful, unlike on other forums where you got a load of junk hiding the good stuff somewhere in a far corner.

+discussions with traders (including you, MO, etc..) make me reflect on my methods and trading, unlike other forums where they tell you "put a MA crossover signal, that'll help, I made thousands of (demo) pips with that".

I like Fxfactory, but its just too full with wise guys who give advice and never felt what its like trading (and losing) real money....

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Postby razorboy » Thu Jun 11, 2009 11:05 am

I could pretty much guarantee that that guy will flip out when he triples up his bet and it doesnt work out for him

I don't see his point in increasing it exponentially, but only up to 5 times - that is like digging your own grave.. I would rather add another unit on (of the same size I am currenlty using) - much how you suggested or maybe addjust your stops to go with the natural ebb and flow of the currency, but unless you have the mindset where you are prepared to take a big loss like that as part of your plan...............................
MightyOne wrote:Martingale is suicide...

More risk is only more risk

More profit is more profit
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!



http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

Fxtraveller
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Postby Fxtraveller » Thu Jun 11, 2009 12:29 pm

Fair enough. I gave it a thought, and I guess it IS suicide, because a losing streak might come at any time.
I might still consider martingale, but only doubling once and no more.
If statistically after a loser you get more winners than another loser- then it helps out.

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