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razorboy
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Postby razorboy » Tue Jun 09, 2009 12:09 pm

what i am working on is figuring out how MO captures time in his approach - that is the key


razorboy wrote:I know that dilema very well - just had one unit (of three)get knocked out of a EUR/US trade by 1 pip, before correcting and running the other way

The other thing you need to examine is that off the bat, your rr ratio is not 1:1

A total loss for you is 60 pips, a partial win is 40 pips (stop out on third unit) - so you need a 60% win ratio just to break even ( i think you posted this earlier - none of this is news to you obviously

I havent figured it out, but what percentage of the time do you need a double win to make this approach worth your time


Fxtraveller wrote:I guess thats my dillema as well, the larger SL.... I need to find a good balance between small and large SL.....
what is more appropriate for MY method? few larger SLs, or Lots of small SL's that might bleed my account to death?
that is yet to be found out.
thinking about making SL=25-30 (but NO more than that) and thus my TP1=25-30

Below is the todays trade as an example:
Eur/Jpy: -23 x 2 - 23 = -69 pips.
The trade was an absolute winner, but inside the H1 candle there was a 22 pips spike, just enought to take me out. So.... -69 OR +80 at least.... thats a 149 pips difference in the a/c... how many larger stop losses do I need to lose this difference, provided that my method has a good winning ratio?
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!

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razorboy
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Postby razorboy » Tue Jun 09, 2009 1:59 pm

Figure out what his boxes mean and i think you will have a solution to the problem..........
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!



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Fxtraveller
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Postby Fxtraveller » Tue Jun 09, 2009 4:32 pm

Thats the thing, as for now, I reach my TP2 more times than it is stopped out.

so my SL always= -20 x 2 - 20 = 60 pips

TP- 2 options:
40 pips + 0 (stopped out)
OR
80 pips.
for now i reach my TP2 more often, so it brings more money in than out.
I wish I could code, EA would at least give a good idea what are the best TP and SL based on historical data. But for now I need to trade as is.

I wont concetrate on the MO's boxes right now. Im trying to accumulate enough good knowledge to trade my own way and be successful.

TRO's 1) "anything can happen" 2) trade what u see, or go where price goes
and
MO's 3)keep your SL tight

are my top 3 rules. I believe any method that adheres to these rules can have an edge. Keep money mgt and discipline in place to maximise profits.

one more thing. I am also elaborating on long lasting methods, especially that "auto-adapt" to volatility. once crisis is over, it will seem to us that even gbp/usd drags like a snail =]]]

and as the "auto-adaptive" methods I regard the pivots and fibos. both the method of this thread and TRO SR RR (keep working on it, cant stay profitable) are like that.
That is way I try to stay away from DTB, squiglys, casino style and buyzone methods. soon 5 pips may ( i do say MAY) not be good enough, it might become 3 pips, or 7....

Just my 2 pips.

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Postby MightyOne » Tue Jun 09, 2009 6:55 pm

How was this for you?:

Image

Fxtraveller
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Postby Fxtraveller » Tue Jun 09, 2009 9:14 pm

MO, bad =]
i mean I MISSED it.

1) we dont have the same levels, my broker server is GMT 01, so my pivot and s/r are at different levels. But that does not matter too much, since my pivots are London based and yours are NY session based, the 2 most important ones.

at midnight the price was too close to entry points, when I put my limit orders so I decided not to trade this time. Later in the afternoon I open my platform and see the move.

2) see how price went to MR1, and then retraced. a SL of 19-20 would have been taken out. I still say the Low/high of the triggering candle is best to set the SL, which in turn defines the TP1..... even if that means a 30-40 pips SL

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Postby Fxtraveller » Wed Jun 10, 2009 10:32 am

As author suggested, if you lose, double your lot size, and double again, he had yet to have 3 losers in a row. Yesterday eur/jpy was a loser, so I doubled:

Eur/Jpy: (30x2 + 42) x2= 204 pips worth.

gbp/usd: -90 pips
-> SL and TP1 are 30 pips now. gbp/usd lost only twice since I started this, and ONLY because trades were triggered during asian session, and it would ALWAYS work out when London opens (or 1 hour prior). no volatility- should be no trade.

+ 114 pips today.
Attachments
eurjpy.gif
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GBP/USD should only be traded starting with London session, or 1 hour prior...
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Postby Fxtraveller » Wed Jun 10, 2009 11:02 am

Since im unable to upload a screensnapshot, I'll copy paste it the progress of the system so far:

Opened a 2000 demo, cause that was the size of my original live a/c.
trades with 0.01, thats less than 1% per trade, dont want my education to be expensive and keeps my emotion bursts low.

Gross Profit: 56.36 Gross Loss: 24.37
Total Net Profit: 31.99
Profit Factor: 2.31 Expected Payoff: 1.60

Total Trades: 20
Profit Trades (% of total): 11 (55.00%)
Loss trades (% of total): 9 (45.00%)

Largest profit trade: 13.38 loss trade: -4.26
Average profit trade: 5.12 loss trade: -2.71

Maximum consecutive wins ($): 4 (14.21)
consecutive losses ($): 4 (-11.45)

Maximal consecutive profit (count): 19.74 (3)
consecutive loss (count): -11.45 (4)

Average consecutive wins: 3 consecutive losses: 3


see that? ONLY 11 wins out of 20 !! im shocked! this means that without money management I'd be only 3-4 euros up !!! but because I FINALLY started to let my profits run a BIT, my average win is nearly double the loss!!
I think I took a step forward towards profitability, not because of this particular method, but the experience is an eye- opener ! One can read advices on forums for weeks, but one just wont get it until he does it himself....

Note: all of the above is more talking to self in public than advice to anyone=]]

Next steps:
limit gbp/usd trades to London and NY sessions
look into deeper money management (4 lots, TP1= 2 lots, TP2=1 lot, TP3= a truly free run for hundres of pips)
stop trading central pivot points- they are not profitable.
stick to 2 pairs, g/u and e/j.

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Postby noone22 » Wed Jun 10, 2009 1:39 pm

Fxtraveller wrote:Simply enter when price reaches the MS1 OR MR1.
BUY when price reaches MR1
SELL when price reaches MS1


What is so special about MR1 and MS1?
Why mid-pivots, not just usual S1 and R1 or usual pivots?
And what lies behind the fact, that
if price reaches MR1 - it will continue rising -
statistics or guess or something else?

I won't blindly take any system without solid confirmation
and waste time trying to prove, that I can be breakeven
(in the best scenario) with it.

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Postby razorboy » Wed Jun 10, 2009 2:29 pm

good show

I'm not half convinced that if you any regular system of entry ( I don't think that it even needs to be at "significant" price points - double tops, double bottoms, cow jumps over the moon etc - just some rules that dont let you over trade and give some "method to your madness" and combine it with some good money management - cut losses tight, let profits run, be bigger when you win and you will make money

Fxtraveller wrote:Since im unable to upload a screensnapshot, I'll copy paste it the progress of the system so far:

Opened a 2000 demo, cause that was the size of my original live a/c.
trades with 0.01, thats less than 1% per trade, dont want my education to be expensive and keeps my emotion bursts low.

Gross Profit: 56.36 Gross Loss: 24.37
Total Net Profit: 31.99
Profit Factor: 2.31 Expected Payoff: 1.60

Total Trades: 20
Profit Trades (% of total): 11 (55.00%)
Loss trades (% of total): 9 (45.00%)

Largest profit trade: 13.38 loss trade: -4.26
Average profit trade: 5.12 loss trade: -2.71

Maximum consecutive wins ($): 4 (14.21)
consecutive losses ($): 4 (-11.45)

Maximal consecutive profit (count): 19.74 (3)
consecutive loss (count): -11.45 (4)

Average consecutive wins: 3 consecutive losses: 3


see that? ONLY 11 wins out of 20 !! im shocked! this means that without money management I'd be only 3-4 euros up !!! but because I FINALLY started to let my profits run a BIT, my average win is nearly double the loss!!
I think I took a step forward towards profitability, not because of this particular method, but the experience is an eye- opener ! One can read advices on forums for weeks, but one just wont get it until he does it himself....

Note: all of the above is more talking to self in public than advice to anyone=]]

Next steps:
limit gbp/usd trades to London and NY sessions
look into deeper money management (4 lots, TP1= 2 lots, TP2=1 lot, TP3= a truly free run for hundres of pips)
stop trading central pivot points- they are not profitable.
stick to 2 pairs, g/u and e/j.
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!



http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

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razorboy
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Postby razorboy » Wed Jun 10, 2009 2:36 pm

be careful about martingales - that's all i will say

Fxtraveller wrote:As author suggested, if you lose, double your lot size, and double again, he had yet to have 3 losers in a row. Yesterday eur/jpy was a loser, so I doubled:

Eur/Jpy: (30x2 + 42) x2= 204 pips worth.

gbp/usd: -90 pips
-> SL and TP1 are 30 pips now. gbp/usd lost only twice since I started this, and ONLY because trades were triggered during asian session, and it would ALWAYS work out when London opens (or 1 hour prior). no volatility- should be no trade.

+ 114 pips today.
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!



http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.


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