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newscalper
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Postby newscalper » Wed Oct 03, 2012 2:50 pm

bettlebox wrote:You should of been in and holding from the start of moment the longer you leave your entry on progression on 4hr swing the higher the risk you will get caught as you rightly saying.

I wouldnt be looking to go short or long where you are saying party started along time ago. You are just asking for trouble.

newscalper wrote:
bettlebox wrote:newscalper

Don't play break outs unless there is one exception you got something obvious to target.












BB - you're reading things into my post which aren't there. I said nothing about breakouts. That's the H4 TF, trades will be on m15, As long as H4 is closing higher according to the 'prices closing higher' etc, the price turns, say from red to green on h4, trading long as long as H4 continues to close higher. Great, whoppee do, until the last bar in the sequence when you are long and price does not close higher, it closes lower, often with swift and destructive momo wiping out all the gains you may (or may not) have made up to that point. To say 'price is closing higher on H4 therefore continue to trade long on M15 often gets you smashed, which is what I showed on the chart. Not a breakout in sight. All it is is buying pullbacks in a trend and as we all know they all end. And as I already mentioned, sideways markets get you killed.

Cool - I remember Dragon's charts of old where he traded in and out several times that's all. Keep on eye on H1 and H4 Zero lines above (if long) I guess) - it's just that when Dragon said ealier in the thread that you shouldn't be looking for a short as price was closing higher on H4, H4 had already closed higher 3 times already. Conflicting information (albeit from different people I know) creating confustion. 1 trader says should be short in that instance, another says should be long - now I know that's what makes a market but we are all trying to trade the same method here and can't even agree on direction on a past chart.

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newscalper
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Postby newscalper » Wed Oct 03, 2012 3:20 pm

bettlebox wrote:Newscalper

what about say is not to be taken negatively.

I have notice your like for asking "what if" questions what if this happens what if that happens.

You do realise that asking these what if question is locking you down. Its like saying when you go outside. What if a car runs off the road and comes at me, what if im crossing road and i fall over there is car coming. What if there is a gun man about to rob me. What if rains andi dont have a coat. what if its sunny and i dont have a hat or sunglasses.

What do you think will happen? you will never go outside.
What if these things do happen? what would you do? you would deal with it there and then on the fly. No one knows what will happen in there day thats life.

Anything can happen in the markets, thats trading. Learn the principles and learn from exprience.

Who knows if order zone going to hold? who knows if its going to go off like a sky rocket? I will take the trade and manage what the market wants to do. Who cares if its lack of volume/orders. Its some thing you will never know deal with it.

It like sam says you need money to come into market when you take position to make a profit. Identify previous areas where money did come in and take your trades there on return, why? because there pass evidence that buyers and sellers thought that price was worth taking a postion. Then just deal with what market wants to do.

I don't know why you are making it out to be so complex. you are not helping yourself.

Just my thoughts, its not suppose to aggressive ot arguementative.Im trying to help you.

BB

:lol:
Why IS Sam teaching and not trading? I wonder...

But that is exactly it - just because price moved on a past chart is not 'evidence' at all. To say it is is misleading. Price can move due to lack of orders yes? Just because price moved does not provide any evidence at all. It might, it might not. 50/50.
Anyway, I'm not poo pooing anything and I agree that money needs to come in and price needs to move once you are in the market, and move the right way hopefully, but you're not really seeing my point at all I don't think. You've pretty much stated that you have no idea what the probabilities are and that your trade management is what swing it for you which brings all of the pre trade analysis into question.

I've traded this, or my interpretation of it LIVE with real money and as yet I am not living the life of the successful trader, whatver that may be LOL, maybe it's just my trade management that sucks.

Your charts are marvelous and very helpful btw

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Postby dojirock » Wed Oct 03, 2012 3:41 pm

Well said newscalper..... "Conflicting information (albeit from different people I know) creating confustion. 1 trader says should be short in that instance, another says should be long - now I know that's what makes a market but we are all trying to trade the same method here and can't even agree on direction on a past chart."

This is why I cant stress enough, understand one time frame, then two.
you guys are trying to jump to 3 time frames without fully understanding what the reversals look like and dont look like... Dragon trades the hourly and 4hr....only using the 15 min for entry...not direction. the hourly has to agree with the 4hr...thats why he says get a hourly mbar behind you.

you have to crawl, walk, then run.... learn the basics....make it your own
we all cant be sam seidens, dragons.....God knows I tried to be a es/pip for months on the 5 min...to no prevail. I struggle with helping on the multi time frames, 1. you dont post enough history on your chart! Its about the past...traders emotions. you cant determine where your at in the big pic if your trading the 4hr on such little info....
2. the hourly within the 4 hr...now were getting closer to having enough info...on that size of pic..
15 min is what I trade...if I was forced to trade the 4hr...i would do it the same way, but I dont have the patients to wait days for a entry, with my limited schedule.

Lets take a step back....... I will try to answer your questions too newcalper on the chart you posted... may have to redraw it a little to get there though...

Trading isnt this difficult..... its the mind you need to control



:P
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Postby bettlebox » Wed Oct 03, 2012 3:44 pm

sorry newscalper im just pissed off with dragons comment , no explanations just higher timeframe bodies closing higher. I dont have clue what he means by this. Price has stop somewhere. who to say the price wouldnt continue to drop and make 4hr lower.

i was slowing build up confidence, i lost it all again. i feel like i been kicked in the gut. :(

one thing i found news is you can know everything and all details about momos and orderzone and zline etc but with out postioning your trade correct and managing the trade, can screw you up.

Its like TRO says in the rat trade just going in at extreme and take what you can get.

Its like MO says its all about position, and expansion of range.

Its all same thing. This is where gold lies and i believe where focus should be. Hell with right trade management you could flip a coin as your entry method. I never tried it but it sounds feasible. Maybe i should i do demo account of it and write a thread here on kreslik and see what out come is. lol




newscalper wrote:
bettlebox wrote:Newscalper

what about say is not to be taken negatively.

I have notice your like for asking "what if" questions what if this happens what if that happens.

You do realise that asking these what if question is locking you down. Its like saying when you go outside. What if a car runs off the road and comes at me, what if im crossing road and i fall over there is car coming. What if there is a gun man about to rob me. What if rains andi dont have a coat. what if its sunny and i dont have a hat or sunglasses.

What do you think will happen? you will never go outside.
What if these things do happen? what would you do? you would deal with it there and then on the fly. No one knows what will happen in there day thats life.

Anything can happen in the markets, thats trading. Learn the principles and learn from exprience.

Who knows if order zone going to hold? who knows if its going to go off like a sky rocket? I will take the trade and manage what the market wants to do. Who cares if its lack of volume/orders. Its some thing you will never know deal with it.

It like sam says you need money to come into market when you take position to make a profit. Identify previous areas where money did come in and take your trades there on return, why? because there pass evidence that buyers and sellers thought that price was worth taking a postion. Then just deal with what market wants to do.

I don't know why you are making it out to be so complex. you are not helping yourself.

Just my thoughts, its not suppose to aggressive ot arguementative.Im trying to help you.

BB

:lol:
Why IS Sam teaching and not trading? I wonder...

But that is exactly it - just because price moved on a past chart is not 'evidence' at all. To say it is is misleading. Price can move due to lack of orders yes? Just because price moved does not provide any evidence at all. It might, it might not. 50/50.
Anyway, I'm not poo pooing anything and I agree that money needs to come in and price needs to move once you are in the market, and move the right way hopefully, but you're not really seeing my point at all I don't think. You've pretty much stated that you have no idea what the probabilities are and that your trade management is what swing it for you which brings all of the pre trade analysis into question.

I've traded this, or my interpretation of it LIVE with real money and as yet I am not living the life of the successful trader, whatver that may be LOL, maybe it's just my trade management that sucks.

Your charts are marvelous and very helpful btw
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Postby bettlebox » Wed Oct 03, 2012 3:51 pm

This sounds good Doji thanks for helping out.

I think you hit the nail on the head "you guys are trying to jump to 3 time frames without fully understanding what the reversals look like and dont look like"

BB
dojirock wrote:Well said newscalper..... "Conflicting information (albeit from different people I know) creating confustion. 1 trader says should be short in that instance, another says should be long - now I know that's what makes a market but we are all trying to trade the same method here and can't even agree on direction on a past chart."

This is why I cant stress enough, understand one time frame, then two.
you guys are trying to jump to 3 time frames without fully understanding what the reversals look like and dont look like... Dragon trades the hourly and 4hr....only using the 15 min for entry...not direction. the hourly has to agree with the 4hr...thats why he says get a hourly mbar behind you.

you have to crawl, walk, then run.... learn the basics....make it your own
we all cant be sam seidens, dragons.....God knows I tried to be a es/pip for months on the 5 min...to no prevail. I struggle with helping on the multi time frames, 1. you dont post enough history on your chart! Its about the past...traders emotions. you cant determine where your at in the big pic if your trading the 4hr on such little info....
2. the hourly within the 4 hr...now were getting closer to having enough info...on that size of pic..
15 min is what I trade...if I was forced to trade the 4hr...i would do it the same way, but I dont have the patients to wait days for a entry, with my limited schedule.

Lets take a step back....... I will try to answer your questions too newcalper on the chart you posted... may have to redraw it a little to get there though...

Trading isnt this difficult..... its the mind you need to control



:P
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Postby newscalper » Wed Oct 03, 2012 4:24 pm

Thank you all anyway and esp BB as i know it takes a lot of time to put charts like that together, I do myself from time to time as you know.
I think what I'll do is start my own thread - it won't be for a few weeks as I've a few things on at the moment, I haven't actually placed a trade in 3 weeks.
Anyway, when I start I think I will limit it to 1 trade per day and take it from there. You are all most welcome to drop in a have a good laugh at me floundering :lol:

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Postby dojirock » Wed Oct 03, 2012 5:06 pm

newscalper wrote:One problem I've had with the 'if the higher timeframe bar is closing a certain way that's the way price is going' is this:
Image
The same issue with waiting for a higher TF bar to close a certain way first at a s/d area - sometimes there isn't an inside bar close in the area, sometimes there's just a spike on M15 and it will shoot away. If you wait for an H4 close, by the time you're thinking of entering price has bombed to the other zero line and back. Follow the H4 in hindsight and once again you're getting hammered.


Your 1st comment... Hammered going long. We can all see up momentum?
Breaks the downward zline? ok.... If I was trading this 4hr chart...I ask myself, looking for longs...only enter when price is below the ema...
the next candle does this, is it enough, no. At that time its below the ema we dont know how far its going to go... Im not going to deal with the hourly right now...i will explain in 2 time frames...so i drop to 15 min for entry. The red vertical line is the close of the 4hr upward mbar. As soon as that happens...i draw levels on the 15 min. You understand how I draw them? Breakout and 50 percent level forms my zone. As you can see per my personal rule...it doesnt drop below the ema, so I can honestly say I probably would not have take this. I would have dropped to the 5 or 10 min to get a entry...but we can discuss that later... So you want an entry...well price comes into zone...i love to take trades that momentum enters the zone...as you can see it did...thats where my arrow is the open of the candle after the momentum into the zone. Good for 20+ pips....if your goal is 20 a day...your done! Some have pm'd me and said well its easy to draw this in hindsight... I use the same method all the time.....it works for me...no exceptions...why would i change it...to please others..not!!

Take what i show you and make it your own.

ok...next area...
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nscalper breakdown 15.gif
nscalper breakdown 15.gif (32.88 KiB) Viewed 261 times
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james4hr_838_zps470d85ad.gif (38.46 KiB) Viewed 261 times
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Postby dojirock » Wed Oct 03, 2012 5:23 pm

We see momentum down...mbar closes below last up zline...tells us to look for shorts..

again red vertical line is the end of the bearish mbar. Do you see how I drew the zone?
drop to 15 min, rule price must be above the ema to enter short...
price shoots through the ema into the zone... enter!

want more confirmation...wait for bearish mbar to break out..take on retrace, and again...above the ema......

how many pips do you want this trade...have a plan

on to next one?
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nc15min_2.gif
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nc4hr_2.gif
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"A small loss is just as satisfying as a large gain" -MO

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"Once you stack, you'll never go back!"

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Postby dojirock » Wed Oct 03, 2012 5:25 pm

BB,

Dont sell yourself short, you have come along way.....your just trying to quantify the steps and make them fit in a little box per Dragons trading style, and trying to do it on 3 time frames... difficult to do...not impossible..just difficult.

Keep up the good work...but dont make it to difficult..

:D
"A small loss is just as satisfying as a large gain" -MO

"Sometimes we need to stop learning and start thinking...."

"Once you stack, you'll never go back!"

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Postby dojirock » Wed Oct 03, 2012 5:48 pm

Lets take the bottom white candle, kind of a doji candle... :D
(my attempt at humor)

your note says "Hammered going short"

Lets look at it.....

Using the 4 hr...there is no level for me to place my analysis on.... SO DONT TRADE THAT TIME FRAME! (sorry)
Drop to the hourly...ok now we have a level....the red vertical is the close of the bearish mbar on the hourly time chart.

We had the breakout drew our lines...now we say, lets look for shorts!
Drop to the 15 min. Price blows through our hourly zone and makes a breakout on the 15 min time frame... tell yourself...this isnt a retrace above the ema..somethings wrong......

That hourly resistance just became support look at the 15 min it comes back to the zone...but cant break it... think longs....price is below the ema...get in long...how many pips do you want this trade...have a plan!

I will post the rest that you have marked newcalper..but im gonna take a break...Im not trading while i post...lol...need to make some money...

hope this helps you both...see how it can be done with one time frame, or in this case two time frames.... you have all the pieces...your just trying to assemble the puzzle... blindly......

let me add, having all the pieces of th puzzle is 75 percent of the work...

dont give up!

im done for now!!!
Attachments
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bot15minshort.gif (26.26 KiB) Viewed 240 times
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bot15minlong.gif (23.76 KiB) Viewed 240 times
bot1hr.gif
bot1hr.gif (23.87 KiB) Viewed 240 times
bot4hr.gif
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