A fresh start! Doji's Trading Journal

If you don't know where to start, start here! Don't be afraid to ask questions.

Moderator: moderators

totem
rank: <50 posts
rank: <50 posts
Posts: 17
Joined: Sat May 05, 2012 7:37 am
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

Postby totem » Wed Oct 03, 2012 12:48 pm

Just keeping things simple ...

Image

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

totem
rank: <50 posts
rank: <50 posts
Posts: 17
Joined: Sat May 05, 2012 7:37 am
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

Postby totem » Wed Oct 03, 2012 12:48 pm

dbl post
Last edited by totem on Wed Oct 03, 2012 12:52 pm, edited 2 times in total.

totem
rank: <50 posts
rank: <50 posts
Posts: 17
Joined: Sat May 05, 2012 7:37 am
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

Postby totem » Wed Oct 03, 2012 12:49 pm

sorry dbl post, no wonder I don't post on kreslik anymore :(

User avatar
newscalper
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1068
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2010 5:58 pm
Reputation: 5
Gender: Female

Postby newscalper » Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:29 pm

bettlebox wrote:newscalper

Don't play break outs unless there is one exception you got something obvious to target.












BB - you're reading things into my post which aren't there. I said nothing about breakouts. That's the H4 TF, trades will be on m15, As long as H4 is closing higher according to the 'prices closing higher' etc, the price turns, say from red to green on h4, trading long as long as H4 continues to close higher. Great, whoppee do, until the last bar in the sequence when you are long and price does not close higher, it closes lower, often with swift and destructive momo wiping out all the gains you may (or may not) have made up to that point. To say 'price is closing higher on H4 therefore continue to trade long on M15 often gets you smashed, which is what I showed on the chart. Not a breakout in sight. All it is is buying pullbacks in a trend and as we all know they all end. And as I already mentioned, sideways markets get you killed.

User avatar
bettlebox
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 733
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2010 12:06 pm
Reputation: 6
Gender: None specified

Postby bettlebox » Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:43 pm

You should of been in and holding from the start of moment the longer you leave your entry on progression on 4hr swing the higher the risk you will get caught as you rightly saying.

I wouldnt be looking to go short or long where you are saying party started along time ago. You are just asking for trouble.

newscalper wrote:
bettlebox wrote:newscalper

Don't play break outs unless there is one exception you got something obvious to target.












BB - you're reading things into my post which aren't there. I said nothing about breakouts. That's the H4 TF, trades will be on m15, As long as H4 is closing higher according to the 'prices closing higher' etc, the price turns, say from red to green on h4, trading long as long as H4 continues to close higher. Great, whoppee do, until the last bar in the sequence when you are long and price does not close higher, it closes lower, often with swift and destructive momo wiping out all the gains you may (or may not) have made up to that point. To say 'price is closing higher on H4 therefore continue to trade long on M15 often gets you smashed, which is what I showed on the chart. Not a breakout in sight. All it is is buying pullbacks in a trend and as we all know they all end. And as I already mentioned, sideways markets get you killed.
There are two forces acting upon us: Suffering pushes us forward from behind and pleasures entice us and pull us forward.

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

User avatar
newscalper
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1068
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2010 5:58 pm
Reputation: 5
Gender: Female

Postby newscalper » Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:49 pm

While I'm being 'difficult', there's something else that also bothers me and it's this: 'where the orders are'. Is NO-ONE aware of the phenomenon of price moving due to LACK of volume/orders at a price?

The reason Seiden's approach worked when he was at CME was because he was sat at a desk and KNEW where the orders were, they were there, written down. And, for me, here's another bit: in a single trading session when the trader has to get a certain number of orders through at a certain price, is he going to be looking at where price was 4 days ago? If he's got the power to move the price that much after he starts buying and then move it back down so he can fill his order book he's trading big volume and he's going to be doing it in THIS session, where price was 4 days ago, in this instance is not such a concern for him, although it may be for whichever institution was placing the orders.

You can guess just from looking at a chart but you, as a retail trader, don't know if the S/D imbalance was actually caused by orders or by lack of volume/orders and there's a big difference afterwards in how price is going to move. Do big banks give 2 hoots were a few retail orders are? Or, if they need to buy currency are they going to buy and keep buying regardless.

There's also another issue which I think someone above has posted in a graphic and it's this: if we go with the stop hunting premise there are 2 places where stops are likely to be after momo - 1: at the break-even level, wherever that might be and 2: below the level.
And if price goes to either of those places it can do 1 of 2 things depending on whether orders are actually there or not. As well as the 'stop hunt/continuation' i.e. pullback entry (which stops though, break eve,n, or initial??), there's also the phenomenon where price goes down to the initial stops and continues - why? Because it's the 'last man caught long' syndrome which leads to panic selling at those levels and big momo the other way. So that's 2 options where price will go in either synopsis? (I think, might be wrong) which makes each one no better than a 50/50 proposition. OK, that's tradable but the other part of the puzzle is then how far price is likely to move as opposed to risk.

User avatar
bettlebox
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 733
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2010 12:06 pm
Reputation: 6
Gender: None specified

Postby bettlebox » Wed Oct 03, 2012 2:48 pm

Newscalper

what about say is not to be taken negatively.

I have notice your like for asking "what if" questions what if this happens what if that happens.

You do realise that asking these what if question is locking you down. Its like saying when you go outside. What if a car runs off the road and comes at me, what if im crossing road and i fall over there is car coming. What if there is a gun man about to rob me. What if rains andi dont have a coat. what if its sunny and i dont have a hat or sunglasses.

What do you think will happen? you will never go outside.
What if these things do happen? what would you do? you would deal with it there and then on the fly. No one knows what will happen in there day thats life.

Anything can happen in the markets, thats trading. Learn the principles and learn from exprience.

Who knows if order zone going to hold? who knows if its going to go off like a sky rocket? I will take the trade and manage what the market wants to do. Who cares if its lack of volume/orders. Its some thing you will never know deal with it.

It like sam says you need money to come into market when you take position to make a profit. Identify previous areas where money did come in and take your trades there on return, why? because there pass evidence that buyers and sellers thought that price was worth taking a postion. Then just deal with what market wants to do.

I don't know why you are making it out to be so complex. you are not helping yourself.

Just my thoughts, its not suppose to aggressive ot arguementative.Im trying to help you.

BB
There are two forces acting upon us: Suffering pushes us forward from behind and pleasures entice us and pull us forward.

User avatar
newscalper
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1068
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2010 5:58 pm
Reputation: 5
Gender: Female

Postby newscalper » Wed Oct 03, 2012 2:50 pm

bettlebox wrote:You should of been in and holding from the start of moment the longer you leave your entry on progression on 4hr swing the higher the risk you will get caught as you rightly saying.

I wouldnt be looking to go short or long where you are saying party started along time ago. You are just asking for trouble.

newscalper wrote:
bettlebox wrote:newscalper

Don't play break outs unless there is one exception you got something obvious to target.












BB - you're reading things into my post which aren't there. I said nothing about breakouts. That's the H4 TF, trades will be on m15, As long as H4 is closing higher according to the 'prices closing higher' etc, the price turns, say from red to green on h4, trading long as long as H4 continues to close higher. Great, whoppee do, until the last bar in the sequence when you are long and price does not close higher, it closes lower, often with swift and destructive momo wiping out all the gains you may (or may not) have made up to that point. To say 'price is closing higher on H4 therefore continue to trade long on M15 often gets you smashed, which is what I showed on the chart. Not a breakout in sight. All it is is buying pullbacks in a trend and as we all know they all end. And as I already mentioned, sideways markets get you killed.

Cool - I remember Dragon's charts of old where he traded in and out several times that's all. Keep on eye on H1 and H4 Zero lines above (if long) I guess) - it's just that when Dragon said ealier in the thread that you shouldn't be looking for a short as price was closing higher on H4, H4 had already closed higher 3 times already. Conflicting information (albeit from different people I know) creating confustion. 1 trader says should be short in that instance, another says should be long - now I know that's what makes a market but we are all trying to trade the same method here and can't even agree on direction on a past chart.

User avatar
newscalper
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1068
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2010 5:58 pm
Reputation: 5
Gender: Female

Postby newscalper » Wed Oct 03, 2012 3:20 pm

bettlebox wrote:Newscalper

what about say is not to be taken negatively.

I have notice your like for asking "what if" questions what if this happens what if that happens.

You do realise that asking these what if question is locking you down. Its like saying when you go outside. What if a car runs off the road and comes at me, what if im crossing road and i fall over there is car coming. What if there is a gun man about to rob me. What if rains andi dont have a coat. what if its sunny and i dont have a hat or sunglasses.

What do you think will happen? you will never go outside.
What if these things do happen? what would you do? you would deal with it there and then on the fly. No one knows what will happen in there day thats life.

Anything can happen in the markets, thats trading. Learn the principles and learn from exprience.

Who knows if order zone going to hold? who knows if its going to go off like a sky rocket? I will take the trade and manage what the market wants to do. Who cares if its lack of volume/orders. Its some thing you will never know deal with it.

It like sam says you need money to come into market when you take position to make a profit. Identify previous areas where money did come in and take your trades there on return, why? because there pass evidence that buyers and sellers thought that price was worth taking a postion. Then just deal with what market wants to do.

I don't know why you are making it out to be so complex. you are not helping yourself.

Just my thoughts, its not suppose to aggressive ot arguementative.Im trying to help you.

BB

:lol:
Why IS Sam teaching and not trading? I wonder...

But that is exactly it - just because price moved on a past chart is not 'evidence' at all. To say it is is misleading. Price can move due to lack of orders yes? Just because price moved does not provide any evidence at all. It might, it might not. 50/50.
Anyway, I'm not poo pooing anything and I agree that money needs to come in and price needs to move once you are in the market, and move the right way hopefully, but you're not really seeing my point at all I don't think. You've pretty much stated that you have no idea what the probabilities are and that your trade management is what swing it for you which brings all of the pre trade analysis into question.

I've traded this, or my interpretation of it LIVE with real money and as yet I am not living the life of the successful trader, whatver that may be LOL, maybe it's just my trade management that sucks.

Your charts are marvelous and very helpful btw

User avatar
dojirock
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1745
Joined: Tue Nov 17, 2009 10:11 pm
Reputation: 477
Gender: Male
Contact:

Postby dojirock » Wed Oct 03, 2012 3:41 pm

Well said newscalper..... "Conflicting information (albeit from different people I know) creating confustion. 1 trader says should be short in that instance, another says should be long - now I know that's what makes a market but we are all trying to trade the same method here and can't even agree on direction on a past chart."

This is why I cant stress enough, understand one time frame, then two.
you guys are trying to jump to 3 time frames without fully understanding what the reversals look like and dont look like... Dragon trades the hourly and 4hr....only using the 15 min for entry...not direction. the hourly has to agree with the 4hr...thats why he says get a hourly mbar behind you.

you have to crawl, walk, then run.... learn the basics....make it your own
we all cant be sam seidens, dragons.....God knows I tried to be a es/pip for months on the 5 min...to no prevail. I struggle with helping on the multi time frames, 1. you dont post enough history on your chart! Its about the past...traders emotions. you cant determine where your at in the big pic if your trading the 4hr on such little info....
2. the hourly within the 4 hr...now were getting closer to having enough info...on that size of pic..
15 min is what I trade...if I was forced to trade the 4hr...i would do it the same way, but I dont have the patients to wait days for a entry, with my limited schedule.

Lets take a step back....... I will try to answer your questions too newcalper on the chart you posted... may have to redraw it a little to get there though...

Trading isnt this difficult..... its the mind you need to control



:P
It always takes Momentum to break Momentum!
"A small loss is just as satisfying as a large gain" -MO
"Sometimes we need to stop learning and start thinking...."
"Once you stack, you'll never go back!"

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.


Return to “beginners forum”