A fresh start! Doji's Trading Journal

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Tony Montana
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Postby Tony Montana » Wed Oct 03, 2012 12:47 pm

double post (sorry the forum was showing problems)
Last edited by Tony Montana on Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
While it may be true that 95-99% of Forex traders fail, 100% of Forex traders who never give up will succeed
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totem
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Postby totem » Wed Oct 03, 2012 12:47 pm

...
Last edited by totem on Wed Oct 03, 2012 12:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Tony Montana
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Postby Tony Montana » Wed Oct 03, 2012 12:47 pm

double post (sorry the forum was showing problems)
Last edited by Tony Montana on Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
While it may be true that 95-99% of Forex traders fail, 100% of Forex traders who never give up will succeed

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totem
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Postby totem » Wed Oct 03, 2012 12:48 pm

Just keeping things simple ...

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totem
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Postby totem » Wed Oct 03, 2012 12:48 pm

dbl post
Last edited by totem on Wed Oct 03, 2012 12:52 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Postby totem » Wed Oct 03, 2012 12:49 pm

sorry dbl post, no wonder I don't post on kreslik anymore :(

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newscalper
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Postby newscalper » Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:29 pm

bettlebox wrote:newscalper

Don't play break outs unless there is one exception you got something obvious to target.












BB - you're reading things into my post which aren't there. I said nothing about breakouts. That's the H4 TF, trades will be on m15, As long as H4 is closing higher according to the 'prices closing higher' etc, the price turns, say from red to green on h4, trading long as long as H4 continues to close higher. Great, whoppee do, until the last bar in the sequence when you are long and price does not close higher, it closes lower, often with swift and destructive momo wiping out all the gains you may (or may not) have made up to that point. To say 'price is closing higher on H4 therefore continue to trade long on M15 often gets you smashed, which is what I showed on the chart. Not a breakout in sight. All it is is buying pullbacks in a trend and as we all know they all end. And as I already mentioned, sideways markets get you killed.

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Postby bettlebox » Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:43 pm

You should of been in and holding from the start of moment the longer you leave your entry on progression on 4hr swing the higher the risk you will get caught as you rightly saying.

I wouldnt be looking to go short or long where you are saying party started along time ago. You are just asking for trouble.

newscalper wrote:
bettlebox wrote:newscalper

Don't play break outs unless there is one exception you got something obvious to target.












BB - you're reading things into my post which aren't there. I said nothing about breakouts. That's the H4 TF, trades will be on m15, As long as H4 is closing higher according to the 'prices closing higher' etc, the price turns, say from red to green on h4, trading long as long as H4 continues to close higher. Great, whoppee do, until the last bar in the sequence when you are long and price does not close higher, it closes lower, often with swift and destructive momo wiping out all the gains you may (or may not) have made up to that point. To say 'price is closing higher on H4 therefore continue to trade long on M15 often gets you smashed, which is what I showed on the chart. Not a breakout in sight. All it is is buying pullbacks in a trend and as we all know they all end. And as I already mentioned, sideways markets get you killed.
There are two forces acting upon us: Suffering pushes us forward from behind and pleasures entice us and pull us forward.

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Postby newscalper » Wed Oct 03, 2012 1:49 pm

While I'm being 'difficult', there's something else that also bothers me and it's this: 'where the orders are'. Is NO-ONE aware of the phenomenon of price moving due to LACK of volume/orders at a price?

The reason Seiden's approach worked when he was at CME was because he was sat at a desk and KNEW where the orders were, they were there, written down. And, for me, here's another bit: in a single trading session when the trader has to get a certain number of orders through at a certain price, is he going to be looking at where price was 4 days ago? If he's got the power to move the price that much after he starts buying and then move it back down so he can fill his order book he's trading big volume and he's going to be doing it in THIS session, where price was 4 days ago, in this instance is not such a concern for him, although it may be for whichever institution was placing the orders.

You can guess just from looking at a chart but you, as a retail trader, don't know if the S/D imbalance was actually caused by orders or by lack of volume/orders and there's a big difference afterwards in how price is going to move. Do big banks give 2 hoots were a few retail orders are? Or, if they need to buy currency are they going to buy and keep buying regardless.

There's also another issue which I think someone above has posted in a graphic and it's this: if we go with the stop hunting premise there are 2 places where stops are likely to be after momo - 1: at the break-even level, wherever that might be and 2: below the level.
And if price goes to either of those places it can do 1 of 2 things depending on whether orders are actually there or not. As well as the 'stop hunt/continuation' i.e. pullback entry (which stops though, break eve,n, or initial??), there's also the phenomenon where price goes down to the initial stops and continues - why? Because it's the 'last man caught long' syndrome which leads to panic selling at those levels and big momo the other way. So that's 2 options where price will go in either synopsis? (I think, might be wrong) which makes each one no better than a 50/50 proposition. OK, that's tradable but the other part of the puzzle is then how far price is likely to move as opposed to risk.

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Postby bettlebox » Wed Oct 03, 2012 2:48 pm

Newscalper

what about say is not to be taken negatively.

I have notice your like for asking "what if" questions what if this happens what if that happens.

You do realise that asking these what if question is locking you down. Its like saying when you go outside. What if a car runs off the road and comes at me, what if im crossing road and i fall over there is car coming. What if there is a gun man about to rob me. What if rains andi dont have a coat. what if its sunny and i dont have a hat or sunglasses.

What do you think will happen? you will never go outside.
What if these things do happen? what would you do? you would deal with it there and then on the fly. No one knows what will happen in there day thats life.

Anything can happen in the markets, thats trading. Learn the principles and learn from exprience.

Who knows if order zone going to hold? who knows if its going to go off like a sky rocket? I will take the trade and manage what the market wants to do. Who cares if its lack of volume/orders. Its some thing you will never know deal with it.

It like sam says you need money to come into market when you take position to make a profit. Identify previous areas where money did come in and take your trades there on return, why? because there pass evidence that buyers and sellers thought that price was worth taking a postion. Then just deal with what market wants to do.

I don't know why you are making it out to be so complex. you are not helping yourself.

Just my thoughts, its not suppose to aggressive ot arguementative.Im trying to help you.

BB
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