WHAT DID YOU LEARN FROM THE RAT IN 2010?

free & uncensored discussion arena for TheRumpledOne

Moderator: moderators

User avatar
TheRumpledOne
rank: 10000+ posts
rank: 10000+ posts
Posts: 11396
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 pm
Reputation: 45
Location: Oregon
Real name: Avery T. Horton, Jr.
Gender: None specified
Contact:

WHAT DID YOU LEARN FROM THE RAT IN 2010?

Postby TheRumpledOne » Mon Jan 03, 2011 1:28 pm

WHAT DID YOU LEARN FROM THE RAT IN 2010?

Image

"Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

Pg 64 - HOW WE DECIDE
Last edited by TheRumpledOne on Mon Jan 03, 2011 8:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

User avatar
wangyue22
rank: <50 posts
rank: <50 posts
Posts: 44
Joined: Sun Dec 26, 2010 8:12 am
Reputation: 0
Location: US
Gender: Male

Postby wangyue22 » Mon Jan 03, 2011 3:29 pm

market is simple? o.O
"find a job you love and you will never work a day in your life" Confucius

"its all relative" Eisenstein

"if you love everything, then nothing is work, if you think everything is work, then nothing is work" Confustein ^.^

User avatar
ajaymein
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 885
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2008 6:34 am
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

Postby ajaymein » Mon Jan 03, 2011 3:53 pm

Trade away from extremes.

Relativity
rank: 150+ posts
rank: 150+ posts
Posts: 364
Joined: Mon Nov 15, 2010 4:19 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

Postby Relativity » Mon Jan 03, 2011 4:48 pm

Rats are hardy creatures and adapt well to most environments. All because of a simple plan: keep going one direction until food appears. Its funny that I think more humans die of salvation than rats do. LOL!

GeorgeCh
rank: <50 posts
rank: <50 posts
Posts: 10
Joined: Fri Dec 31, 2010 10:59 am
Reputation: 0
Location: Geneva
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby GeorgeCh » Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:31 pm

That the best way to trade is to assume that markets are random and emerging trends are impossible to reliably predict without looking at the fundamentals, which would put us squarely into the long-term investing - rather than trading - game.

Once you accept that markets are random, you start focusing on predicting not medium-term trends spanning days, weeks, or hours, but, rather, immediate, knee-jerk reactions in a market driven by human psychology - for instance, corrective retracements from the daily high/low.

Smile, people, it's all random!

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

cwn6161
rank: 150+ posts
rank: 150+ posts
Posts: 276
Joined: Sun Feb 28, 2010 8:05 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

Postby cwn6161 » Mon Jan 03, 2011 8:00 pm

Relativity wrote:Rats are hardy creatures and adapt well to most environments. All because of a simple plan: keep going one direction until food appears. Its funny that I think more humans die of salvation than rats do. LOL!


I'd argue that more humans are saved by salvation than rats! :lol: :wink:

User avatar
TheRumpledOne
rank: 10000+ posts
rank: 10000+ posts
Posts: 11396
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 pm
Reputation: 45
Location: Oregon
Real name: Avery T. Horton, Jr.
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby TheRumpledOne » Mon Jan 03, 2011 8:19 pm

GeorgeCh wrote:That the best way to trade is to assume that markets are random and emerging trends are impossible to reliably predict without looking at the fundamentals, which would put us squarely into the long-term investing - rather than trading - game.

Once you accept that markets are random, you start focusing on predicting not medium-term trends spanning days, weeks, or hours, but, rather, immediate, knee-jerk reactions in a market driven by human psychology - for instance, corrective retracements from the daily high/low.

Smile, people, it's all random!


No way you learned that from a rat. It reads like something a YALE STUDENT would say.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

User avatar
wangyue22
rank: <50 posts
rank: <50 posts
Posts: 44
Joined: Sun Dec 26, 2010 8:12 am
Reputation: 0
Location: US
Gender: Male

Postby wangyue22 » Tue Jan 04, 2011 12:37 am

up or down, market chooses

oh and the long evans rat is so cute. work with them at work. ^.^ when they stand up, it looks like its wearing trousers
Last edited by wangyue22 on Tue Jan 04, 2011 1:43 am, edited 3 times in total.

User avatar
wangyue22
rank: <50 posts
rank: <50 posts
Posts: 44
Joined: Sun Dec 26, 2010 8:12 am
Reputation: 0
Location: US
Gender: Male

Postby wangyue22 » Tue Jan 04, 2011 12:38 am

oh jeez people, this is so obvious: dont be a yale student

edit: just read this, or dont be the following long evans rat:

Over-expression of a particular gene (NR2B) that lets brain cells communicate just a fraction of a second longer makes a smarter rat, according to a recent research report. The researches showed that a transgenic Long Evans rat that overexpressed NR2B was able to remember novel objects, such as a toy she played with, three times longer than the average Long Evans female rat, which is considered the smartest rat strain. The transgenic rat was also much better at more complex tasks, such as remembering which path she last traveled to find a chocolate treat. NR2B is a subunit of NMBA receptors, which are like small pores in brain cells that let in electrically-charged ions that increase the activity and communication of neurons. Dr. Joe Tsien, an author of the report, referred to NR2B as the "juvenile" form of the receptor because its levels decline after puberty and the adult counterpart, NR2A, becomes more prevalent. While the juvenile form keeps communication between brain cells open maybe just a hundred milliseconds longer, that's enough to significantly enhance learning and memory and why young people tend to do both better, Dr. Tsien said. The report was published October 19 in PLoS ONE. [Press release] [PLoS ONE article]

User avatar
PebbleTrader
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1632
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2010 2:15 am
Reputation: 0
Gender: Male

Postby PebbleTrader » Tue Jan 04, 2011 2:12 am

Accept the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learn to settle for the best possible alternative.
Life is just a journey

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.


Return to “TheRumpledOne”