TRO PLOT  SCALP ANALYSIS
I loaded 2 occurences of TRO PLOT into a chart. One has high  open, and the other has open  low.
I plot as a histogram.
This shows me how much I could have scalped each minute.
Workspace attached.
You should have the TRO PLOT indicator loaded by now... if not, shame on you...LOL!
TRO PLOT  SCALP ANALYSIS
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 TheRumpledOne
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TRO PLOT  SCALP ANALYSIS
 Attachments

 TRO_PLOT_BuyZone.tsw
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Last edited by TheRumpledOne on Wed Jul 18, 2007 12:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!
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BuyZone statistics in action
.6(4)+.4(9)= 2.6% expected return
Looks like a 60% win rate results in negative returns with this particular system
Looks like a 60% win rate results in negative returns with this particular system
 TheRumpledOne
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Re: BuyZone statistics in action
4x=0 wrote:.6(4)+.4(9)= 2.6% expected return
Looks like a 60% win rate results in negative returns with this particular system
What's .6 and .4 ??
What's 4 and 9 ??
It should be OBVIOUS when the best time to scalp is.
Not to mention, if you only try to scalp a dime instead of .20, the win rate is higher!!
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!
Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.
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s**t, that calculation is actually incorrect, sorry. The REAL expected return is 1.2%
Here is the formula for expected returns (r^):
It means, add up the results of the probabilities(Pi) multiplied by the return for the probability (ri).
In this case we have the win rate. Those loss rate is (1win_rate).
so for example win rate .6 <this is our "win" probability state
so loss rate will equal .4
What happens when we win? we get 4 net pips aka 4%
When we lose we lose 9 pips aka 9%
So then,
.6(4) = 2.4%
and
.4(9) = 3.6%
The sum of these 2 is 1.2%
As the excel graph shows, you would need a win rate of at least 70% in order to have an expected return of .1%
This means that if you were to take every BZ trade you would lose your ASS. Therefore, it is now settled that you do not want to take EVERY bz trade. Only the good ones.
Here is the formula for expected returns (r^):
It means, add up the results of the probabilities(Pi) multiplied by the return for the probability (ri).
In this case we have the win rate. Those loss rate is (1win_rate).
so for example win rate .6 <this is our "win" probability state
so loss rate will equal .4
What happens when we win? we get 4 net pips aka 4%
When we lose we lose 9 pips aka 9%
So then,
.6(4) = 2.4%
and
.4(9) = 3.6%
The sum of these 2 is 1.2%
As the excel graph shows, you would need a win rate of at least 70% in order to have an expected return of .1%
This means that if you were to take every BZ trade you would lose your ASS. Therefore, it is now settled that you do not want to take EVERY bz trade. Only the good ones.
 Attachments

 rhat.xls
 (17 KiB) Downloaded 176 times
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 TheRumpledOne
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Where are you getting a .6 win rate?
This is dollars and cents, not pips here!
Notice most of the best trades happen during the first hour.
Take your money quick, quit and go play!!
This is dollars and cents, not pips here!
Notice most of the best trades happen during the first hour.
Take your money quick, quit and go play!!
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!
Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.
Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.
TheRumpledOne wrote:Where are you getting a .6 win rate?
I am getting it from here > "The BuyZone is a STATISTICALLY calculated trade. If you take every trade, the WORSE you'll do is around 63% BASED ON STATISTICS  no thinking!!"
>This is dollars and cents, not pips here!
OK no pips. A bz win is 4% gain when using 1 lot per $100 account equity.
>Notice most of the best trades happen during the first hour. Take your money quick, quit and go play!!
unknowns:
A. take profit in %
B. stop loss in %
C. win/loss ratio
Expected Return = (C*A)+((1C)*(B))
Last edited by 4x=0 on Thu Jul 19, 2007 3:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
 TheRumpledOne
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Kahoonya:
That's the point.
Being able to SEE what you COULD HAVE MADE should give you the confidence to PULL THE TRIGGER the NEXT TIME YOU SEE the same setup!
This is using TRO PLOT as an ANALYSIS TOOL not as a trade trigger.
That's the point.
Being able to SEE what you COULD HAVE MADE should give you the confidence to PULL THE TRIGGER the NEXT TIME YOU SEE the same setup!
This is using TRO PLOT as an ANALYSIS TOOL not as a trade trigger.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!
Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.
Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.
Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.
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