The ideas that I trade by:

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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:17 pm

It looks like your post is to yourself Jala, don't you just love exploration? :D

Remember that the true triangle/channel can only be seen when you do everything to not use a breakout as part of a channel.

You want more? What should I give you...

How about this:

Image

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:36 pm

ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT TRADING

* Price either goes up or down.
* No one knows what will happen next.
* Keep losses small and let winners run.
* POSITION SIZE = RISK / STOP LOSS.
* The reason you entered has no bearing on the outcome of your trade.
* You can control the size of your loss (skill) but you can't control the size of your win (luck).
* You need to know when to pick up your chips and cash them in.

Expectancy = (Probability of Win * Average Win) - (Probability of Loss * Average Loss)

You cannot control the probabilities of wining or losing.

You cannot control your average win size.

The only part of the equation that you can control is your average loss size.

PRICE ACTION

"Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

They happen regardless of time frame .

They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist." - H. Rearden

1) Price will either breakout of the high, low or both of the previous bar

2) Price will not breakout of the previous bar.

You cannot reduce it any further. Anything else complicates the issue.


ENTERING A TRADE

You either decide to:

1) Wait and do not enter a trade

2) Trade a breakout

3) Trade a reversal.

Those are your ONLY 3 options.

That is all you need to know about trading.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:05 pm

TRO wrote:You cannot control the probabilities of wining or losing.

You cannot control your average win size.


These are the only two points that I would challenge.

1) you can control the probability of winning or losing overall through the manipulation of numbers via position size & space.

The question is what does it mean to "lose":

a) When you get out of a trade with minus pips?
b) When you are in a trade and are sitting at minus pips?
c) when you lose x%?

If 'a' then sure, you cannot control the probability of winning or losing just as you have no control over whether you are up or down pips after you enter a trade.

But if the answer is "c" then there is a lot that you can do, prior to losing x%, that will greatly swing the probabilities in your favor.

2) You can control your average win size...in dollars.

"If it is not about the money then what is it about?" -Floyd Mayweather

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Postby Jalarupa » Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:36 pm

MightyOne wrote:It looks like your post is to yourself Jala, don't you just love exploration? :D

Remember that the true triangle/channel can only be seen when you do everything to not use a breakout as part of a channel.

You want more? What should I give you...

How about this:

Image


Exploration in TA is really great, you start to see so much that was always hiding in plain sight... But yeah you guys are right... transforming that vision into Dollars is what its about at the end of the day...

So this is what I have assimilated thus far regarding MO's technique shown in the pages of this thread... of which I believe page 108 to be the best (coincidentally 108 is also a very sacred number in my spiritual tradition, so you can kind of say that the synchronicity is quiet amazing) - Thank you to the new comers to the discussion for prompting MO to reveal such powerful simplistic realizations that have given me the most wonderful AHA moment! Please continue along this journey with us :)

Now for those who may look at my AHA moment with a Duh! expression... well just remember that some of us are not as advanced as others... so I thank you in advance for your understanding in this matter... ;)

Image

So above noting the boxes are 35 pips in size and the opportunity to take trades just astounds me when we use MO's position X criteria...

However this is not a silver bullet, because of the dreaded CONE as price likes to stretch to take out stops at extremes and trigger all that interbank breakout liquidity above the highs and the lows...

Image

So this leads me to deduce that one 'should' be on the lookout for coning events at these levels (which I believe MO has been hinting to in any event and I may just be stating the obvious - yet again)

Image

Image

Then all that is left to do is to ensure that you have done the best job possible to find the extreme and then let space and lot size take care of the rest

Image

THIS

Image

Can then translate into...

This...

Image


EDIT

On a side note, I guess that is what it means to be at a 2+ Daily Extreme... The Cone High/Low has already been established... Yeah I know.... really stating the obvious today... :)
"our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate... our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure... It is our light, not our darkness that most frightens us..."

I trade using <<FX SYNERGY>>

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Captain Pugwash
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Postby Captain Pugwash » Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:44 am

Jalarupa wrote: - Thank you to the new comers to the discussion for prompting MO to reveal such powerful simplistic realizations that have given me the most wonderful AHA moment! Please continue along this journey with us :)]


I quite agree - although I do remember Sandra from reading the archives.

Sandra - please keep asking questions - the answers are a benefit to us all

THANK YOU
"MOJO 1)Self-confidence, Self-assuredness. As in basis for belief in ones self in a situation. Esp/In context of contest or display of skill such as going into battle. 2)Ability to bounce back from a debilitating trauma and negative attitude YEH BABY

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Captain Pugwash
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Postby Captain Pugwash » Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:54 am

Jalarupa wrote:On a side note, I guess that is what it means to be at a 2+ Daily Extreme... The Cone High/Low has already been established... Yeah I know.... really stating the obvious today... :)


AHA that makes sense - so the market has already taken out the buy stops from the extreme sellers - and made new pa to define our new entry.



Its the final entry on this chart that eludes me.

The adds and space manipulation on the first two space expansions I sort of get

But that last one just looks like a pending on the bottom line - unless its the second spike up to the body of the first spike - although I'm sure mo's gonna make me sweat :)

Image
"MOJO 1)Self-confidence, Self-assuredness. As in basis for belief in ones self in a situation. Esp/In context of contest or display of skill such as going into battle. 2)Ability to bounce back from a debilitating trauma and negative attitude YEH BABY

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Postby forextrading » Tue Jul 15, 2014 4:24 pm

MightyOne wrote:
forextrading wrote:MightyOne, are you playing extreme in the direction of the main trend or playing in both directions?


I am trading the large chart.

Short term I might reverse with min. size.
Long term I might reverse with max. size.

Large charts, large size.
Small charts, small size.

The more lots you accumulate the easier your decisions will be.

Example:
Q: I started with 2 units & now have 16, what is the cost (risk) to reverse with 2 units and 25 space?
A: (2/16) * 25 or 3.2 pips.


I hope that answers your question :wink:

Image


ok I understand.

Today, a bad day - 4 losses.

3 trades from H3 extreme
1 trade from H12 extreme

All lossy.

I need to find some method to detect strong extreme.

Trading away form extreme is not easy :)

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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Tue Jul 15, 2014 4:28 pm

All trades start with position on the 2+ day extreme, Jala, and only move to weaker extremes when adding size; we then reposition our stops back at the 2+ day so that we are not murdered by the intraday price action.

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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Tue Jul 15, 2014 4:41 pm

Captain Pugwash wrote:
Jalarupa wrote:On a side note, I guess that is what it means to be at a 2+ Daily Extreme... The Cone High/Low has already been established... Yeah I know.... really stating the obvious today... :)


AHA that makes sense - so the market has already taken out the buy stops from the extreme sellers - and made new pa to define our new entry.



Its the final entry on this chart that eludes me.

The adds and space manipulation on the first two space expansions I sort of get

But that last one just looks like a pending on the bottom line - unless its the second spike up to the body of the first spike - although I'm sure mo's gonna make me sweat :)

Image


After shorting with only wickdolls to comfort me (no BDP) I was hoping that the daily would fall below 8970 so that I could short more aggressively with an awesome position.

Image

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Postby forextrading » Tue Jul 15, 2014 5:07 pm

just observation
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