Mr. Hyde wrote:Wow nice little topic on SD going. Cool. I will propose some questions and scenarios latter this week to get your guys take on it.
Lem, have you noticed on UC does the dollar index trump oil in the pair of vice versa? Also yea on the CJ isn't Japan like the 2nd largest user of oil or something, hence why its such a good pair to watch (learned that while researching ML's). I like your hurry up and wait comment. I feel like a lot of pairs are either at a area or interest or just getting there which is holding me back from putting on any longer term trades with any conviction.
I never really looked or noticed that AJ and CJ move in step lock. Is this a pretty common occurrence in your experience.
Lem and Mira would love to see an actual chart mark up of a S/D trade taken.
The Dollar tie to Oil is much more complex than one could at first imagine. It's all very well saying that well, oil is priced in Dollars so if it goes up in price, the Dollar is directly effected and will weaken. However, the US is also a producer of oil and so if price goes up, its revenues will go up, so Dollar gains. Not a huge offset but certainly some.
However, everyone else has to buy oil also. They buy oil in Dollars. They need more Dollars. See how it goes?
As a coincidence, I have just been reading an interesting article on how shale oil is having an impact on these relationships. It's an old piece but interesting nonetheless.
https://www.businessinsider.in/The-Shal ... 731498.cmsFor now and for the foreseeable future, if you want a rock-solid correlation, look no farther than UC.
As for CJ, the one thing that tempers any involvement there, is the fact that the Japanese Govt just loooovvveeee to stick their noses in. It's interesting and useful, yes but one to be careful around.