The Held Profit Theory REVISITED - (AKA Zeroline, MO, BDP)

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adaseb
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Postby adaseb » Fri Aug 01, 2014 12:17 pm

Should be an interesting session.

Looking at the tape on the futures and finding some massive dollar buying & euro selling and pound selling.


Seems like the employment numbers will be beat or as expected.

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adaseb
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Postby adaseb » Fri Aug 01, 2014 12:27 pm

Huge Gold Selling going on 5 mins prior to NFP.

Retarded Amounts of lots being sold!

Huge offers

wtf

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Postby aliassmith » Fri Aug 01, 2014 1:48 pm

Hoodlum wrote:Along with supply & demand, zero lines have been the single greatest concept I've learned that has helped my trading.

However, as mentioned, you can't just trade them blindly. In a strongly trending market, a succession of 4h z-lines can be taken out in a short space of time, with only a perfunctory opposite reaction at each one, before the move continues. For me at least, it is why it is so important to take an overview of currencies as a whole, instead of just trying to trade a pair in isolation.

However, I've got to say - in the case of a 4 year, or 25 year old z-line, I've can't help but think there is another mechanism at play. I find it extremely difficult to believe even the most hardcore position trader would hold on to any profits for 4 years, let alone 25.

Rather, are these not "flip zones" - price levels at which the financial institutions like to place large orders, as buys or sells depending on which side of it the price is on?


I would have to agree, its hard to believe people are holding positions that long
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adaseb
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Postby adaseb » Fri Aug 01, 2014 3:23 pm

The 24 year one or the 4 year one I think are both a coinincidence

Its best to trade these off daily or weekly charts.

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Postby Captain Pugwash » Fri Aug 01, 2014 6:56 pm

adaseb

Can I ask a question?

If I understand you. First you wait to zero the Daily/Weekly THEN you are looking for a momo H4/D1 in the Direction of Profit somewhere off that daily/weekly zone -

You then look to target this new zline as an entry? Maybe a few adds. like Mo talks about off the extreme.

Ride the wave to the next D/W zline in the DOP to take their profit

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Postby adaseb » Sat Aug 02, 2014 4:14 am

Captain Pugwash wrote:adaseb

Can I ask a question?

If I understand you. First you wait to zero the Daily/Weekly THEN you are looking for a momo H4/D1 in the Direction of Profit somewhere off that daily/weekly zone -

You then look to target this new zline as an entry? Maybe a few adds. like Mo talks about off the extreme.

Ride the wave to the next D/W zline in the DOP to take their profit

grazie


No, the above was posted just as an example. I don't trade that way. Because I usually only day-trade.

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Postby Jalarupa » Sat Aug 02, 2014 6:33 am

adaseb wrote:The 24 year one or the 4 year one I think are both a coinincidence

Its best to trade these off daily or weekly charts.


I hate to belabor this point but time is a fractal...

Ergo, the size or distance of time doesn't have any effect on the result, price behaves the same on all time frames because we are predisposed to behave in the same way over and over again.

So in its purest sense yes it is doubtful that traders would hold profit for that long, (although sovereigns may hold it for that long in foreign reserves). This does not however change the support becoming resistance mechanism which forms part of the psychology behind the zero line, albeit the flipside... traders in loss exiting at breakeven... (failure)
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Postby MightyOne » Sat Aug 02, 2014 5:28 pm

I've held Futures positions for 4+ years.

You would hold FOREVER if you were getting paid to do so ;)

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adaseb
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Postby adaseb » Sat Aug 02, 2014 7:20 pm

MightyOne wrote:I've held Futures positions for 4+ years.

You would hold FOREVER if you were getting paid to do so ;)

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How did you hold a futures position for EURAUD?

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Postby MightyOne » Sat Aug 02, 2014 9:04 pm

I never said that I held EURAUD futures, just that I have held futures positions for years.

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