ProchargedMopar's Trading Trilogy

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jhtumblin
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Postby jhtumblin » Thu Oct 08, 2009 4:05 am

Pro,

The market is not beating you, you are beating yourself. MO is right about this, it looks like you have been possessed by your broker's demons to execute a trade every 5 minutes and in turn pay them way too much commission.

Do these steps and write down the results on a giant poster before you place another trade:

1. What is your trade trigger? ZL? MZ? BZ? Rats? write it down and stick to it the whole session.

2. Look at your trade list, why is there losses of -8, -2.6, -5.1, -0.2, -14.2 etc? This denotes inconsistency in your trading plan (i will explain that more in a second). You are not giving these trades a chance to run, or you are letting them run in your favor then against you again. Set a stop level and leave it!

3. Look at your profitable trades. Why are you taking profits of less than 2 pips? That will not even close me out at breakeven for a trade. Compare these winners to your losers. You will NOT make money trading this ratio ever! Your R/R is not proper. Don't trade again until you have that straightened out.

Need help with that? Do this:

When you see a potential entry signal, calculate what your risk is, where your stop needs to be in order to give the trade a chance but minimize loss. If the risk is too high then don't take the trade it's that easy. I don't care if the trade would have turned out to be the biggest winner ever in the history of the universe, the risk was too much at the time.

So how do you figure this R/R? We'll use your last trade today as an example.



1. IMO your entry was fine. Even though you weren't trading with the trend, I assume you were looking for a reversal off the lows and a quick scalp. If you were trading the rat method you were late on this entry and could have saved yourself about 4 pips but that is neither here nor there. Lets manage this trade now that you are in it.

2. You need to insert your stop immediately after you put on the trade. Then DON'T MOVE IT (unless it's up to breakeven). In this case we placed the stop at the lowest prior low point, a difference of 9.2 pips from the entry. This is ample room for the EUR/JPY to breathe. It needs about as leeway as the GBP/JPY. There is really no other logical place unless you want it tight, then put it below the low of the bar you entered on.

3. When do you exit the trade? At minimum it should never be before profit = your stop. Why? Because you need an insanely high win % to make money at less than 1:1. TRO has a neat R/R indicator to tell you exactly what the % is based on your stop and target. I personally never shoot for less than 3:1. If I don't think the trade has that potential, then I don't enter period, it's just not worth it, there will be another chance. At 2:1 you could close, or move the stop to B/E. This is the discretionary part of trading. If you want to use a bigger stop, you need a bigger target. If you want a smaller target, you need a smaller stop. You must grasp this concept.

4. So you waited until price came back in your favor to close? I'm glad for your sake that it did......this time. (See 5.)

5. The ugly truth is that this is where margin calls begin. Price blew past the previous low in 4 short minutes and into new low ground. I would bet my money at this point that you started to "hope" for a turnaround because I guarantee you didn't Know what was going to happen. What did you think at this point? That price must stop and reverse sometime? That is wrong thinking, it doesn't have to stop until it hits 0. If you don't believe me ask George Soros, the Bank of England, and all the traders who were long on Black Wednesday. My point is, all signs say close and that is exactly what should have happened, the trade blew up. No problem though because at least you have capital left to try again.

Each and every trade is a battle, you don't go into war without your weapons and definitely not without a plan of attack. Otherwise death is imminent. Also think about this every time you are about to place a trade (assuming you are married because you said you had kids): If you had to take a chart of every trade you make down to your wife and explain what you did and why you did it, would she be perplexed or would it make sense? It should make sense because why waste time taking trades that don't.
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prochargedmopar
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Postby prochargedmopar » Thu Oct 08, 2009 4:38 am

I was staring at my last post (before refreshing) thinking to myself....look at all those entries. That's gotta stop. I'm suppose to be limiting my trades to 8 in 8hrs.

Well, I hit the refresh button and what do I see????

My new Desktop background......with a BIG X in the middle.

jhtumblin,

I know all that.
I thank you for taking the time to lay it out in a clear and concise manner.

I was watching e/u run up (don't normally trade e/u but it was a breakout during asian session) and felt as though I missed the move so I WAITED.

And waited, and waited. Didn't get the momo I liked but when I saw the High volume up bar at the "top", I hit it short to see if it had the gumption to breakout again. Low risk of just a couple pips, big reward.

Took 80% off the table at 15ish pips.
Will let the rest run. We are in an uptrend, remember and will stop it at b/e if it turns.
Of course this is just demo....as I'm in time-out.

EDIT:
Closed 2nd portion at +18 because I could see it was building a base...sure enough, we are headed back up to test the top.........2nd pic

Image

Image
#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!
Trading Bible here> therumpledone/the-ideas-that-i-trade-by-t3256/page1670

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pablo101
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Postby pablo101 » Thu Oct 08, 2009 5:13 am

Thanks JH, this is a good description and I find it useful

jhtumblin wrote:Pro,

The market is not beating you, you are beating yourself. MO is right about this, it looks like you have been possessed by your broker's demons to execute a trade every 5 minutes and in turn pay them way too much commission.

Do these steps and write down the results on a giant poster before you place another trade:

1. What is your trade trigger? ZL? MZ? BZ? Rats? write it down and stick to it the whole session.

2. Look at your trade list, why is there losses of -8, -2.6, -5.1, -0.2, -14.2 etc? This denotes inconsistency in your trading plan (i will explain that more in a second). You are not giving these trades a chance to run, or you are letting them run in your favor then against you again. Set a stop level and leave it!

3. Look at your profitable trades. Why are you taking profits of less than 2 pips? That will not even close me out at breakeven for a trade. Compare these winners to your losers. You will NOT make money trading this ratio ever! Your R/R is not proper. Don't trade again until you have that straightened out.

Need help with that? Do this:

When you see a potential entry signal, calculate what your risk is, where your stop needs to be in order to give the trade a chance but minimize loss. If the risk is too high then don't take the trade it's that easy. I don't care if the trade would have turned out to be the biggest winner ever in the history of the universe, the risk was too much at the time.

So how do you figure this R/R? We'll use your last trade today as an example.



1. IMO your entry was fine. Even though you weren't trading with the trend, I assume you were looking for a reversal off the lows and a quick scalp. If you were trading the rat method you were late on this entry and could have saved yourself about 4 pips but that is neither here nor there. Lets manage this trade now that you are in it.

2. You need to insert your stop immediately after you put on the trade. Then DON'T MOVE IT (unless it's up to breakeven). In this case we placed the stop at the lowest prior low point, a difference of 9.2 pips from the entry. This is ample room for the EUR/JPY to breathe. It needs about as leeway as the GBP/JPY. There is really no other logical place unless you want it tight, then put it below the low of the bar you entered on.

3. When do you exit the trade? At minimum it should never be before profit = your stop. Why? Because you need an insanely high win % to make money at less than 1:1. TRO has a neat R/R indicator to tell you exactly what the % is based on your stop and target. I personally never shoot for less than 3:1. If I don't think the trade has that potential, then I don't enter period, it's just not worth it, there will be another chance. At 2:1 you could close, or move the stop to B/E. This is the discretionary part of trading. If you want to use a bigger stop, you need a bigger target. If you want a smaller target, you need a smaller stop. You must grasp this concept.

4. So you waited until price came back in your favor to close? I'm glad for your sake that it did......this time. (See 5.)

5. The ugly truth is that this is where margin calls begin. Price blew past the previous low in 4 short minutes and into new low ground. I would bet my money at this point that you started to "hope" for a turnaround because I guarantee you didn't Know what was going to happen. What did you think at this point? That price must stop and reverse sometime? That is wrong thinking, it doesn't have to stop until it hits 0. If you don't believe me ask George Soros, the Bank of England, and all the traders who were long on Black Wednesday. My point is, all signs say close and that is exactly what should have happened, the trade blew up. No problem though because at least you have capital left to try again.

Each and every trade is a battle, you don't go into war without your weapons and definitely not without a plan of attack. Otherwise death is imminent. Also think about this every time you are about to place a trade (assuming you are married because you said you had kids): If you had to take a chart of every trade you make down to your wife and explain what you did and why you did it, would she be perplexed or would it make sense? It should make sense because why waste time taking trades that don't.

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Braathen
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After a few hours of .....

Postby Braathen » Thu Oct 08, 2009 11:45 am

Hi Pro, MO and the rest of you :) :)

Flossnhoss gave me the heads up on this thread and i spent about ... all night studying these boxes MO just "threw" out there and got rather excited of the prospect off putting this together with MZ's from high TF's like 4h and the correction boxes on the smaller TF's like the 5-15-30m for entries.. this is what i came up with.. pure luck on the first go?? :twisted:
Had some s**t entries on the GU .. 2x -10 then i got this on the EU for 84

Image

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Re: After a few hours of .....

Postby MightyOne » Thu Oct 08, 2009 2:18 pm

Braathen wrote:Hi Pro, MO and the rest of you :) :)

Flossnhoss gave me the heads up on this thread and i spent about ... all night studying these boxes MO just "threw" out there and got rather excited of the prospect off putting this together with MZ's from high TF's like 4h and the correction boxes on the smaller TF's like the 5-15-30m for entries.. this is what i came up with.. pure luck on the first go?? :twisted:
Had some s**t entries on the GU .. 2x -10 then i got this on the EU for 84

Image


A great number of days the box its self can seem almost magical.

It is important to remember that the box only tells you that it is less likely that price will return to the low having corrected a greater distance than the largest correction which returned to the low.

You still have to be aware of the price action after price closes outside of the box.

I would treat a bull candle close outside of the box + a bear candle close inside (even separated by a doji) as a wick.

Below are some triangle trading methods that you may find helpful.

1-2 Triangle followed by a candle close breakout = entry
3-5 Triangle followed by a candle close breakout = exit

ImageImage
Last edited by MightyOne on Fri Oct 09, 2009 7:34 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Braathen
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ok so.. after u showed me that pic ..

Postby Braathen » Thu Oct 08, 2009 3:21 pm

So i tried taking a diffrent chart and looking at a downfall just to see if i get the picture.. thanks very much for ur answer and all the time u put into this :) :)

Image
Last edited by Braathen on Thu Oct 08, 2009 3:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: ok so.. after u showed me that pic ..

Postby MightyOne » Thu Oct 08, 2009 3:49 pm

Braathen wrote:this post was all wrong.. so i cut it :P


lol, first thing I am going to say is that every trader starts out with horrible looking triangles :wink:

Over the years I have developed a simplified wave count style based on double hooks and it has been more accurate than that Neo/Elliot wave "lets take every possible variation into account" BS.

In my book there are only 1-2-3's and 4-5 extensions.

keep it simple.

Image

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Braathen
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great stuff

Postby Braathen » Thu Oct 08, 2009 3:54 pm

Thanks again.. great stuff.. i got some drawing and playing to do :) :)
lol.. im guessing u saw my first mess? :P

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Postby prochargedmopar » Thu Oct 08, 2009 4:45 pm

Why does this crap look so easy after the fact?
What the .... am I missing?

I'm growing more and more ANGRY each day.

Yeah, I WAITED. Watch hundreds of pips float in front of my eyes....hundreds upon hundreds.

I then enter.
The pissers went directly to my stop.
Yes, it was exactly the same triggers that I watched be successful over and over and over.

-14 and -14


You know what.....both the damn things ended up banking pips.
I got back in e/u (at a worse price mind you, and g/u I couldn't get close to my exit price) at double lot value and closed it out in 4 steps.

Then I fiddle around with a few trades that I don't get what I should.....I decide to hold to my stop, again......what do you know, the very next trade gets wacked!!! And I get a -2.3 trying to close it the wrong way.

FINALLY.
Get a trigger on g/u and scale out of it for some pips.

I was long E/U on one that went 14-5m frickin candles in a row with ONLY 2 reds mixed in. That's 65 pip rise....Scaling out I got 13 pips total...

#12
EUR/USD 1 S 1.47788 1.47744 4.4 0.44 0.00 10/8/2009 11:55 10/8/2009 12:05
#11
GBP/JPY 1 S 142.224 142.258 -3.4 -0.38 0.00 10/8/2009 11:55 10/8/2009 12:05
#10
GBP/USD 3 S 1.60931 1.60920 1.1 0.33 0.00 10/8/2009 11:43 10/8/2009 11:43
#9
Scaled into this one.....
GBP/USD 1 B 1.60989 1.61091 10.2 1.02 0.00 10/8/2009 11:19 10/8/2009 11:31
GBP/USD 1 B 1.60989 1.61040 5.1 0.51 0.00 10/8/2009 11:19 10/8/2009 11:30
GBP/USD 3 B 1.60989 1.61085 9.6 2.88 0.00 10/8/2009 11:19 10/8/2009 11:29
GBP/USD 1 B 1.60989 1.61085 9.6 0.96 0.00 10/8/2009 11:19 10/8/2009 11:29
#8
GBP/USD 3 S 1.60966 1.60989 -2.3 -0.69 0.00 10/8/2009 11:19 10/8/2009 11:19
GBP/USD 3 S 1.60842 1.60979 -13.7 -4.11 0.00 10/8/2009 11:15 10/8/2009 11:19
#7
EUR/USD 1 B 1.47359 1.47474 11.5 1.15 0.00 10/8/2009 10:15 10/8/2009 10:28
EUR/USD 1 B 1.47359 1.47395 3.6 0.36 0.00 10/8/2009 10:15 10/8/2009 10:26
EUR/USD 4 B 1.47359 1.47379 2 0.80 0.00 10/8/2009 10:15 10/8/2009 10:25
#6
EUR/USD 6 B 1.47289 1.47390 10.1 6.06 0.00 10/8/2009 10:10 10/8/2009 10:23
#5
EUR/USD 3 B 1.47407 1.47260 -14.7 -4.41 0.00 10/8/2009 10:00 10/8/2009 10:03
#4
GBP/USD 3 B 1.60632 1.60491 -14.1 -4.23 0.00 10/8/2009 10:00 10/8/2009 10:03
#3
EUR/USD 3 B 1.47417 1.47420 0.3 0.09 0.00 10/8/2009 09:42 10/8/2009 09:45
#2
EUR/JPY 2 B 130.532 130.571 3.9 0.88 0.00 10/8/2009 08:35 10/8/2009 08:36
#1
EUR/JPY 4 B 130.422 130.408 -1.4 -0.63 0.00 10/8/2009 07:53 10/8/2009 08:00
44 21.8 1.03 0.00


I made 61.5 pips on demo in 4 trades during London session.
3-1

PROFIT GAP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!
Trading Bible here> therumpledone/the-ideas-that-i-trade-by-t3256/page1670

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MightyOne
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Re: great stuff

Postby MightyOne » Thu Oct 08, 2009 4:46 pm

Braathen wrote:Thanks again.. great stuff.. i got some drawing and playing to do :) :)
lol.. im guessing u saw my first mess? :P


I see anything posted here in less than a minute.

I might not always respond right away or at all, but I always see it :smt107

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