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adaseb
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Postby adaseb » Tue Jun 14, 2011 4:36 pm

newscalper wrote:Yeah, I know what you're saying: I was in the long earlier from the weekly mighty zone up and the morning breakout. That didn't work out too well because I'd added to my position just before the retrace - price had gone through a minor resistance so I added. Then it came back to kill my average so I only got 10 pips out of about a 60 pip move.

However my view is if your looking to trade a daily zline there has to be momentum on the smaller timeframes to get price up to the line within the day, no two ways about it, if it just saunters up it will become a multi-day s/r play.

Often, before price turns there is momo up into an area which fakes out traders looking for further longs. If that's what you're looking for - momo up/ momo down, it's just a CC pin bar.

My entry in this case isn't a momo on a shorter TF play it's just a close over/close under play. I could see the small line there below but 'anyone with more than 2 lines is a fool' - my two lines show the 2 fat cats - close over/under and continuation and I'm committed to the trade unless price closes over my line. It wasn't until the large momo smashed through against me that price closed over the line.

It brings me back to what has been messing me up, I see minor s/r EVERYWHERE. If I take note of them I see no reason to enter. If you are trading retracements, there is always minor support or resistance above/below so I don't see the logic in saying "I wouldn't have taken it because of" because if that's the logic you will never take a trade. You would imagine that daily supply would trump 15 minute demand but again and again, for me, for whatever reason, it's proving not to be the case. I'm starting to see why (I think this is what he does anyway but knowing me I have it arse about face again) ES trades it the other way around - how his charts look to me is that he fades the longer term move going from 5/15 minute momo (say) into prior 1hr/4hr etc s/d areas.



if you read the old threads such as NLA or Lukx or any of the other countless threads on zerolines you would find that the reason why alot of people struggled was because in many instances, price was saying to go long and short at the same time.

and thats where many people struggled and it pretty much became a gamble for many.

and as you can see from what happened with GU, the higher timeframes don't always help you out either, because the h4+ was indicating a short but the 15M was indicating a long.

that's why you need to observe what is happening and make decisions.

like i said before, i assumed the pound would drop further thats why i went short however since it stalled in that specific area and started gaining momentum, i had to bail.

the only way you can recognise these patterns and clues is through experience. and i mean months and months of staring at the charts for 12+ hours days. and pretty soon it will become second nature.

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Postby adaseb » Tue Jun 14, 2011 4:37 pm

newscalper wrote:Yeah, I know what you're saying: I was in the long earlier from the weekly mighty zone up and the morning breakout. That didn't work out too well because I'd added to my position just before the retrace - price had gone through a minor resistance so I added. Then it came back to kill my average so I only got 10 pips out of about a 60 pip move.

However my view is if your looking to trade a daily zline there has to be momentum on the smaller timeframes to get price up to the line within the day, no two ways about it, if it just saunters up it will become a multi-day s/r play.

Often, before price turns there is momo up into an area which fakes out traders looking for further longs. If that's what you're looking for - momo up/ momo down, it's just a CC pin bar.

My entry in this case isn't a momo on a shorter TF play it's just a close over/close under play. I could see the small line there below but 'anyone with more than 2 lines is a fool' - my two lines show the 2 fat cats - close over/under and continuation and I'm committed to the trade unless price closes over my line. It wasn't until the large momo smashed through against me that price closed over the line.

It brings me back to what has been messing me up, I see minor s/r EVERYWHERE. If I take note of them I see no reason to enter. If you are trading retracements, there is always minor support or resistance above/below so I don't see the logic in saying "I wouldn't have taken it because of" because if that's the logic you will never take a trade. You would imagine that daily supply would trump 15 minute demand but again and again, for me, for whatever reason, it's proving not to be the case. I'm starting to see why (I think this is what he does anyway but knowing me I have it arse about face again) ES trades it the other way around - how his charts look to me is that he fades the longer term move going from 5/15 minute momo (say) into prior 1hr/4hr etc s/d areas.



if you read the old threads such as NLA or Lukx or any of the other countless threads on zerolines you would find that the reason why alot of people struggled was because in many instances, price was saying to go long and short at the same time.

and thats where many people struggled and it pretty much became a gamble for many.

and as you can see from what happened with GU, the higher timeframes don't always help you out either, because the h4+ was indicating a short but the 15M was indicating a long.

that's why you need to observe what is happening and make decisions.

like i said before, i assumed the pound would drop further thats why i went short however since it stalled in that specific area and started gaining momentum, i had to bail.

the only way you can recognise these patterns and clues is through experience. and i mean months and months of staring at the charts for 12+ hours days. and pretty soon it will become second nature.

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Postby adaseb » Tue Jun 14, 2011 4:47 pm

newscalper wrote:Yeah, I know what you're saying: I was in the long earlier from the weekly mighty zone up and the morning breakout. That didn't work out too well because I'd added to my position just before the retrace - price had gone through a minor resistance so I added. Then it came back to kill my average so I only got 10 pips out of about a 60 pip move.

However my view is if your looking to trade a daily zline there has to be momentum on the smaller timeframes to get price up to the line within the day, no two ways about it, if it just saunters up it will become a multi-day s/r play.

Often, before price turns there is momo up into an area which fakes out traders looking for further longs. If that's what you're looking for - momo up/ momo down, it's just a CC pin bar.

My entry in this case isn't a momo on a shorter TF play it's just a close over/close under play. I could see the small line there below but 'anyone with more than 2 lines is a fool' - my two lines show the 2 fat cats - close over/under and continuation and I'm committed to the trade unless price closes over my line. It wasn't until the large momo smashed through against me that price closed over the line.

It brings me back to what has been messing me up, I see minor s/r EVERYWHERE. If I take note of them I see no reason to enter. If you are trading retracements, there is always minor support or resistance above/below so I don't see the logic in saying "I wouldn't have taken it because of" because if that's the logic you will never take a trade. You would imagine that daily supply would trump 15 minute demand but again and again, for me, for whatever reason, it's proving not to be the case. I'm starting to see why (I think this is what he does anyway but knowing me I have it arse about face again) ES trades it the other way around - how his charts look to me is that he fades the longer term move going from 5/15 minute momo (say) into prior 1hr/4hr etc s/d areas.



if you read the old threads such as NLA or Lukx or any of the other countless threads on zerolines you would find that the reason why alot of people struggled was because in many instances, price was saying to go long and short at the same time.

and thats where many people struggled and it pretty much became a gamble for many.

and as you can see from what happened with GU, the higher timeframes don't always help you out either, because the h4+ was indicating a short but the 15M was indicating a long.

that's why you need to observe what is happening and make decisions.

like i said before, i assumed the pound would drop further thats why i went short however since it stalled in that specific area and started gaining momentum, i had to bail.

the only way you can recognise these patterns and clues is through experience. and i mean months and months of staring at the charts for 12+ hours days. and pretty soon it will become second nature.

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Postby newscalper » Tue Jun 14, 2011 5:04 pm

Yeah I read all those threads front to back. Some more than once because there's a lot of conflicting stuff there.
I've also spent a long time looking at charts, both real time and on sim, like years. I think I might go back to my bad old ways of moving my stop and making money most of the time instead of doing what I'm currently doing and losing all the time.

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Postby jarnapal » Wed Jun 15, 2011 11:50 am

newscalper wrote:Yesterday's trade

Looking for entry
Image

Piggy got slaughtered again :cry:


Look at the supply area. You went short which was a good idea until it spiked the supply area.

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Postby bredin » Wed Jun 15, 2011 12:27 pm

It seems to me that many people never answer the question "How will I know I am wrong?"

Apart from the obvious answer that there wasnt any downward momo to enter on... after the entry there is a green M45 engulfing candle, which also wicks supply.

As an aside does that pattern tell you to go long? it looks like a long MOMO - Z-line entry to me.

At that point there is no conflict, only a long signal.

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Postby newscalper » Wed Jun 15, 2011 1:44 pm

bredin wrote:It seems to me that many people never answer the question "How will I know I am wrong?"

Apart from the obvious answer that there wasnt any downward momo to enter on... after the entry there is a green M45 engulfing candle, which also wicks supply.

As an aside does that pattern tell you to go long? it looks like a long MOMO - Z-line entry to me.

At that point there is no conflict, only a long signal.

G.


The answer to the question is you are wrong when price closes OVER the s/d area 'over the line'. Prior, price had NOT closed over the line, it had wicked it only.

Re no obvious momo down. Blind mouse doesn't look for momo, not part of the strat. If you mean the larger red CC needed to be bigger than the one going up, yeah I see that. Don't think you'd have got in this morning EU move south on that criteria, you'd have still been looking for a long and got slaughtered again.

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Postby bredin » Wed Jun 15, 2011 2:36 pm

Im sorry, Im not following you...
Apart from a false breakout (which quickly becomes a stop-and-reverse) theres nothing on my chart saying "get long" on EU in the last 24 hours.

Image


After asking "when am i wrong?" the next question is "what do I do about it?"
We all get taught "get out and wait for the next setup", and thats pretty much the extent of it. If we're talking about price closing (or not closing) over a line to signal the initial entry.... then what does that say about the event of closing over a line to get out??
We ask "where is price going?" when our close over says 'get in', why not ask the same question when our close over says 'get out'?

Having no position in the market does not mean the trade is over.

I can understand your frustration (it certainly would have taken some guts to call a stop-and-reverse after that big spanky green CC), since all of this was a lead in to working with space- which gives plenty of opportunity to be wrong and have it not matter a great deal.

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Postby newscalper » Wed Jun 15, 2011 3:37 pm

Hi Bredin. Thanks :)

As it happens I am short, if price can't close beyond 680 I'm out but to some there would have been longs for sure - take a look:
Image

Someone just using a moving average would have gotten in at about the same place as I did.

I hear you on price closing across the line and electing to go the other way, a lot of trend traders got faked out this morning doing just that. And I know one might say 'what idiot is going long into supply' but the levels fail just as often as they hold I find.

I think my main weakness still is reading price action.

Today I've chucked a squiggly on the chart and it would have kept me out of a lot of duff trades. It's not an entry or exit tool but maybe useful for idiots like me.

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Postby newscalper » Wed Jun 15, 2011 4:14 pm

And out. It's looking over extended and ready to pull back to the weekly open area. Tomorrow looking for shorts again.

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