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bredin
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Postby bredin » Fri Jun 03, 2011 3:32 am

Its probably time for me to say something aggravating...

Its impossible to learn slowly.

There is only an instant between not knowing and knowing. We prolong and put off the instant by saying things like 'I dont understand' and 'Im confused' (these are conflicting statements, not synonymous, btw), 'this is hard' and a whole host of other lies we tell ourselves.

Once one understands their own learning processes, one can force the instant to happen more quickly. We all have an aversion to pain (and is the fastest learning device yet found), but there are a bunch of ways that people learn... I (for example) am an observer-repeater.

Trading is not hard.... But youve got to sort your brain out first.

G. (Who once paid 4 guys to waylay his brain in a dark alley)
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Postby poipen » Fri Jun 03, 2011 4:14 am

bredin wrote:Its probably time for me to say something aggravating...

Its impossible to learn slowly.

There is only an instant between not knowing and knowing. We prolong and put off the instant by saying things like 'I dont understand' and 'Im confused' (these are conflicting statements, not synonymous, btw), 'this is hard' and a whole host of other lies we tell ourselves.

Once one understands their own learning processes, one can force the instant to happen more quickly. We all have an aversion to pain (and is the fastest learning device yet found), but there are a bunch of ways that people learn... I (for example) am an observer-repeater.

Trading is not hard.... But youve got to sort your brain out first.

G. (Who once paid 4 guys to waylay his brain in a dark alley)


VERY well put
Wise Men Know Their Limits, Great Men Have No Limits.

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Postby newscalper » Fri Jun 03, 2011 9:41 am

bredin wrote:Its probably time for me to say something aggravating...

Its impossible to learn slowly.

There is only an instant between not knowing and knowing. We prolong and put off the instant by saying things like 'I dont understand' and 'Im confused' (these are conflicting statements, not synonymous, btw), 'this is hard' and a whole host of other lies we tell ourselves.

Once one understands their own learning processes, one can force the instant to happen more quickly. We all have an aversion to pain (and is the fastest learning device yet found), but there are a bunch of ways that people learn... I (for example) am an observer-repeater.

Trading is not hard.... But youve got to sort your brain out first.

G. (Who once paid 4 guys to waylay his brain in a dark alley)


:lol: Yes pain is the best teacher when it comes to trading. Only yesterday (and the day before) on EUR/GBP short and USDCAD (forgotten direction now) and getting spanked again because once again I'm in too soon on what's likely to be a weekly+ move trying to get in on a 1 hour chart.

There's only one highest high, MO repeats this over and over and don't I know it. I have it well intellectualised but perhaps as yet still haven't had enough pain to drill it into my thick skull. Last year I was doing good basically trading 4 hour charts almost like a rat with a 15 minute/hourly pullback entry, occasionally doing the same thing with weekly and daily. 3 months and some reading leads me to a losing streak of epic proportions - a good job I'm not trading with any size.

WHICH is the highest high is the problem and how much MOMO is enough to give the long term direction change on a daily+ chart - is 3CC on a 15 minute chart enough (not yesterday and not for the last goodness knows how many trades:lol:), is on the hourly enough etc etc??

After thinking there's 2 possible answers. Keep taking the hits until the highest high is reached then take the big win...or stop trying to pick tops/bottoms and keep trading with the higher TF 'trend' until the direction has definitely changed THEN taking the pullback.

I know trend is only a concept and doesn't exist but it's a concept that's killing me lately, as is stacking of orders. There's an interesting thread at the moment where the trader is taking stacked hourly/15 levels on a 5 minute entry, sounds good until you go to the larger charts and see that often he's going the opposite way, or is trading right in a big s/d zone that 'points' opposite. Who's right, well right now price is moving THIS way and price is price on all charts, any move which becomes apparent as a 'trend' happens first on the small chart, not the big one. Maybe I've been seeing this backwards all along, maybe current 5 minute momo trumps old monthly levels shocker :lol: and see that I'd bank better on larger levels NOT holding and just trading straight through them rather than expecting the brick-wall effect and a reversal, it's almost back to 1/3 dots and last week breaking the previous week high therefore this week we go long from a daily or 4 hour supply level, i.e. pretty mechanical 'trend' following, not far from what I was doing before.

Too much beer = inconsequential rambling into my beard :P

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Postby MightyOne » Sat Jun 04, 2011 2:03 am

It sounds like you are the victim of conflicting theories...

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Postby newscalper » Sat Jun 04, 2011 11:49 am

MightyOne wrote:It sounds like you are the victim of conflicting theories...


I don't disagree, but a lot of the conflicting theories are just the same thing presented in different ways and they tend to be presented in ways across the internet and in books such that there are huge holes in the theory that you can get through with a barge as there's such thing as a shoo-win in trading :)

As an example of things being the same but being presented differently (not a bad thing as it helps understanding) take the momo bar in the original sense as presented on Kreslik. What is it? It's a momentum breakout from a supply/demand zone. You can look at it in a few ways, say a big bar breaking out of a small bar on the weekly chart ( a momo bar in the original sense), or as a Seiden type area on the daily chart, he prefers a breakout 3 times or more larger than the zone. It's the same thing: just looks different on different charts. Another way of seeing it is using the 3CC on the daily chart. You'll see the same thing however you look at it, a sideways period and a breakout. Now, where's the entry? Preference is on pullback to the zone. On which chart do we take our entry? Well if it's at the area it's going to be on less than the daily chart if using bar confirmation. Now an entry can either be using some kind of bar confirmation in the zone (maybe just a rat, but a rat on which timeframe?), or looking for fresh momo (how much is enough and again based on what time criteria?), and if you're looking for fresh momo are you then looking for another, smaller, pullback to point of origin (you could) or just stick out a limit order at the line/halfway into the zone, take your pick.

Look at this week's cable chart. It's interesting from the fact that for once both the apparent zones from the weekly held for a change, there's a big zone above which shorts took on pullback earlier in the week and there's a big zone below, which longs took close to end of play yesterday, except price never actually got to that zone, it bounced off a rally base rally apparent on the four hour chart. It sucked the supply up there and just shot up, no pullback apparent to get in on unless you were looking at the 15 minute chart, Waiting for hourly up then a pullback wouldn't have got you in (it didn't for me anyhow and i was loathe to take it as I was waiting for price to fall further to the larger zone). Now where's it going? There are evident supply zones all the way up depending on which chart you look at, there has to be as price has been coming down and a lot of breakouts you see on the smaller charts (say hourly or 4 hourly) are just morning breakouts from the overnight range, are they likely to hold again in the bigger picture? Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. Some will say that price is going back up to weekly supply. Why is it? It never reached the demand area on the way down, granted it got close, indicating stronger buyers than sellers and a strong zone maybe but there's no guarantee of it going anywhere, we don't know until after it has happened.

How I used to trade it would be to continue going long until it's going short: it's likely to pullback from certain areas on the way up...which? Hourly levels? 4 hourly levels? We never know which for me puts the kybosh on trying to trade in and out rather than just seeing how long i can hold for. I just used to trade it like a dumb rat: say if price was falling on the 4 hour, then came a good closing up bar, well what was was the cause of that? Supply from somewhere? Then I'd look for a pullback entry on the 15/1hr. Sounds almost like a Blind Mouse to me.

When cable gets back up to the top, if it gets there, will the weekly short zone hold this time? What's our criteria for getting in? Fresh daily momo down? 4 hour? 1 hour? etc. but one thing is becoming more apparent and that is if there's some king of 'trend' supply zones will tend not to hold, logically that must happen for the trend to exist, so the safer play is with the larger 'trend'.

Anyway, yeah. I know too much conflicting cr@p I think, my increase in some 'knowledge' has taken me from being slightly profitable to b/e/slightly losing :shock:
Having said that being ?200 down on a ?10k account after 3 months isn't going to kill me but that's a long 3 months to just be churning the account over :lol: :lol: :lol:

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Postby newscalper » Sat Jun 04, 2011 11:51 am

Boy do I not like it when I type a whole load of cr@p then Kreslik throws up a server error.
I see my brain spew got posted though :P

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Postby MightyOne » Sat Jun 04, 2011 1:30 pm

All that you have to know is that, in the course of a year, price moves a thousand to thousands of pips.

How is it then that the masses do not show profit year after year?

For all their knowledge they know nothing, for in their knowledge they lack abundance.

They pay men with flowery words, they trust those who find success in risking not a dime of their own.

I am convinced that the masses would show a loss after price moved 5,000 pips in one direction; for in their arrogance they believe that they can make 15,000 trading in two.

With few exceptions, time and time alone bestowed wealth to those who brag about their fortunes.

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Postby dchappy » Sat Jun 04, 2011 4:28 pm

newscalper wrote:
MightyOne wrote:It sounds like you are the victim of conflicting theories...


I don't disagree, but a lot of the conflicting theories are just the same thing presented in different ways and they tend to be presented in ways across the internet and in books such that there are huge holes in the theory that you can get through with a barge as there's such thing as a shoo-win in trading :)

As an example of things being the same but being presented differently (not a bad thing as it helps understanding) take the momo bar in the original sense as presented on Kreslik. What is it? It's a momentum breakout from a supply/demand zone. You can look at it in a few ways, say a big bar breaking out of a small bar on the weekly chart ( a momo bar in the original sense), or as a Seiden type area on the daily chart, he prefers a breakout 3 times or more larger than the zone. It's the same thing: just looks different on different charts. Another way of seeing it is using the 3CC on the daily chart. You'll see the same thing however you look at it, a sideways period and a breakout. Now, where's the entry? Preference is on pullback to the zone. On which chart do we take our entry? Well if it's at the area it's going to be on less than the daily chart if using bar confirmation. Now an entry can either be using some kind of bar confirmation in the zone (maybe just a rat, but a rat on which timeframe?), or looking for fresh momo (how much is enough and again based on what time criteria?), and if you're looking for fresh momo are you then looking for another, smaller, pullback to point of origin (you could) or just stick out a limit order at the line/halfway into the zone, take your pick.

Look at this week's cable chart. It's interesting from the fact that for once both the apparent zones from the weekly held for a change, there's a big zone above which shorts took on pullback earlier in the week and there's a big zone below, which longs took close to end of play yesterday, except price never actually got to that zone, it bounced off a rally base rally apparent on the four hour chart. It sucked the supply up there and just shot up, no pullback apparent to get in on unless you were looking at the 15 minute chart, Waiting for hourly up then a pullback wouldn't have got you in (it didn't for me anyhow and i was loathe to take it as I was waiting for price to fall further to the larger zone). Now where's it going? There are evident supply zones all the way up depending on which chart you look at, there has to be as price has been coming down and a lot of breakouts you see on the smaller charts (say hourly or 4 hourly) are just morning breakouts from the overnight range, are they likely to hold again in the bigger picture? Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. Some will say that price is going back up to weekly supply. Why is it? It never reached the demand area on the way down, granted it got close, indicating stronger buyers than sellers and a strong zone maybe but there's no guarantee of it going anywhere, we don't know until after it has happened.

How I used to trade it would be to continue going long until it's going short: it's likely to pullback from certain areas on the way up...which? Hourly levels? 4 hourly levels? We never know which for me puts the kybosh on trying to trade in and out rather than just seeing how long i can hold for. I just used to trade it like a dumb rat: say if price was falling on the 4 hour, then came a good closing up bar, well what was was the cause of that? Supply from somewhere? Then I'd look for a pullback entry on the 15/1hr. Sounds almost like a Blind Mouse to me.

When cable gets back up to the top, if it gets there, will the weekly short zone hold this time? What's our criteria for getting in? Fresh daily momo down? 4 hour? 1 hour? etc. but one thing is becoming more apparent and that is if there's some king of 'trend' supply zones will tend not to hold, logically that must happen for the trend to exist, so the safer play is with the larger 'trend'.

Anyway, yeah. I know too much conflicting cr@p I think, my increase in some 'knowledge' has taken me from being slightly profitable to b/e/slightly losing :shock:
Having said that being ?200 down on a ?10k account after 3 months isn't going to kill me but that's a long 3 months to just be churning the account over :lol: :lol: :lol:
Last edited by dchappy on Sat Jun 04, 2011 10:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby newscalper » Sat Jun 04, 2011 5:30 pm

Don't get me wrong, it sticks out like a sore thumb on a chart. It's just me that isn't working.

I think I need to read some philosophy and drink some more beer by the sounds of it.

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Postby aliassmith » Sat Jun 04, 2011 6:05 pm

newscalper wrote:
MightyOne wrote:It sounds like you are the victim of conflicting theories...


I don't disagree, but a lot of the conflicting theories are just the same thing presented in different ways and they tend to be presented in ways across the internet and in books such that there are huge holes in the theory that you can get through with a barge as there's such thing as a shoo-win in trading :)

As an example of things being the same but being presented differently (not a bad thing as it helps understanding) take the momo bar in the original sense as presented on Kreslik. What is it? It's a momentum breakout from a supply/demand zone. You can look at it in a few ways, say a big bar breaking out of a small bar on the weekly chart ( a momo bar in the original sense), or as a Seiden type area on the daily chart, he prefers a breakout 3 times or more larger than the zone. It's the same thing: just looks different on different charts. Another way of seeing it is using the 3CC on the daily chart. You'll see the same thing however you look at it, a sideways period and a breakout. Now, where's the entry? Preference is on pullback to the zone. On which chart do we take our entry? Well if it's at the area it's going to be on less than the daily chart if using bar confirmation. Now an entry can either be using some kind of bar confirmation in the zone (maybe just a rat, but a rat on which timeframe?), or looking for fresh momo (how much is enough and again based on what time criteria?), and if you're looking for fresh momo are you then looking for another, smaller, pullback to point of origin (you could) or just stick out a limit order at the line/halfway into the zone, take your pick.

Look at this week's cable chart. It's interesting from the fact that for once both the apparent zones from the weekly held for a change, there's a big zone above which shorts took on pullback earlier in the week and there's a big zone below, which longs took close to end of play yesterday, except price never actually got to that zone, it bounced off a rally base rally apparent on the four hour chart. It sucked the supply up there and just shot up, no pullback apparent to get in on unless you were looking at the 15 minute chart, Waiting for hourly up then a pullback wouldn't have got you in (it didn't for me anyhow and i was loathe to take it as I was waiting for price to fall further to the larger zone). Now where's it going? There are evident supply zones all the way up depending on which chart you look at, there has to be as price has been coming down and a lot of breakouts you see on the smaller charts (say hourly or 4 hourly) are just morning breakouts from the overnight range, are they likely to hold again in the bigger picture? Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. Some will say that price is going back up to weekly supply. Why is it? It never reached the demand area on the way down, granted it got close, indicating stronger buyers than sellers and a strong zone maybe but there's no guarantee of it going anywhere, we don't know until after it has happened.

How I used to trade it would be to continue going long until it's going short: it's likely to pullback from certain areas on the way up...which? Hourly levels? 4 hourly levels? We never know which for me puts the kybosh on trying to trade in and out rather than just seeing how long i can hold for. I just used to trade it like a dumb rat: say if price was falling on the 4 hour, then came a good closing up bar, well what was was the cause of that? Supply from somewhere? Then I'd look for a pullback entry on the 15/1hr. Sounds almost like a Blind Mouse to me.

When cable gets back up to the top, if it gets there, will the weekly short zone hold this time? What's our criteria for getting in? Fresh daily momo down? 4 hour? 1 hour? etc. but one thing is becoming more apparent and that is if there's some king of 'trend' supply zones will tend not to hold, logically that must happen for the trend to exist, so the safer play is with the larger 'trend'.

Anyway, yeah. I know too much conflicting cr@p I think, my increase in some 'knowledge' has taken me from being slightly profitable to b/e/slightly losing :shock:
Having said that being ?200 down on a ?10k account after 3 months isn't going to kill me but that's a long 3 months to just be churning the account over :lol: :lol: :lol:


If you are a B/E trader which It would seem if you are only down 2% after
three months then you are just on the verg of being successful. It would
appear that you need some money management that MO, Phantom of the
Pits,FTI, etc. talk about. You need to press your wins some way.

As for conflicting ideas, is it really? It seems to me that everything you are
confused about are the same thing. It is simple and yet an art. "people"
have orders stacked at certain price areas. They do that because of their
method of trading. Identify those areas with MoMo, zlines, s/d, support and
resistance, etc. So now you SEE the reaction in those areas which are on
any/all timeframes. If multiple timeframes have the same order stack area
then you increase you chance of a "better" reaction.

Cut losses quick and press your winners/profits!

I just saw your newest post- yes it is you. It is something in your belief
system not allowing you to do what you need to. I was a self sabotager
before and couldn't take a loss. That doesn't work well in trading. Be
honest with yourself and your feelings and you will overcome what holds
you back.
Trade Your Way as Long as It Makes Money!

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