newscalper wrote:I often find I'm ahead of the herd - TOO ahead tends to be the problem. Coming back to the old close over a line is interesting in this context - when YOU talk of a close over are you talking about a monthly close over a line from a monthly zone, and hourly close over an hourly line etc keeping it all TF in context? So if price is currently within a zone of previous supply you're not looking for shorts on a smaller TF? Seiden would already be in AFAIK with a limit and take the hit if it gets to the other side. To my mind though that's only giving small r:r.
The higher the TF where the horizontal line (and therefore also a zone) originated from, the more significant it is. If price is in a HTF supply zone then I'd be more interested in looking for shorts on a smaller TF but since the zone is usually bigger I'd be most interested right at the outer extreme of such a zone where several TFs have their supply zone. At that point there will be traders from several TFs walking into the trap of the big guys. Once you have that confluence getting in on lower TFs can be extremely profitable since you're taking a LTF risk with a HTF reward
But if you've missed that, or in case price doesn't get to the outer extreme of the HTF zone, you can also take a LTF trade based on the fact that a HTF candle closes outside of the zone. The close-over-the-line concept is in fact nothing else but a confirmation that things are going in your intended direction.
In any case, analysing the market from HTF to LTF over various instruments gives one the opportunity to cherry-pick the LRHR opportunities (that is low risk high reward, not the inverse
) so that one can capitalise on the big moves in the forex markets.
I'm working in that direction. If you're interested in that, MO has some nice ideas imho, as well as PipEasy on ForexFactory (millipede thread).